Did anyone set up for this Oil Stock Move? I am thinking of dumping.

R

RabidTrader

I bought the SGY Calls and PWE when PWE was cheap, as I posted on previous threads we are not allowed to post Sub $3.00 stocks which is a fair rule. I agree that lots of pumping can happen and respect the owner because he's one of the few people who actually care about his members.


I got CVX I bought cheap, been selling at $2.00+ on calls I bought really really really cheap. Its the stocks like PWE that make me wonder if I should sell all the $1.00 2017 Calls, would you let the ride higher since Tax Loss Selling is over? CVX has moved up lots, its a stock I follow everyday.

My other stocks like FIZZ, LABL, Synders, Aarons, MDLZ, CCE, and others are moving correctly, they have a huge swing. Would you take gains on your little stocks if your up 5x on them? My CVX calls are up 10x from my purchase price, while trading ATW during the Biotech Crash, my Puts stopped going down so I reversed action and bought their Calls plus started adding to lots of Sub $3.00 Oil Stocks, now I am asking if you think the Oil Run is done or would you hold out for a bigger gain?
 
"now I am asking if you think the Oil Run is done or would you hold out for a bigger gain?"

You caught the meat of the move in oil stocks.

$50 is strong resistance for Crude Oil, but today has briefly pierced new highs since July and holding so far along the upper range. If it goes higher, then $55 is next target for October. $55 is a nice fib number too. One could say that the move off from Aug low 40 to 50 would correspond with a measured move from 45 to 55, esp with 45 to 50 wedge range projecting to $55 off the range expansion. Certainly a possibility. I think whether this happens will depend on the stock market. The recent upside in oil coincided with rising stock prices around the world, also coinciding with the payroll miss leading to delayed rate hike expectations and reversal of emerging market outflows, thus juicing the risk on environment. Will this continue? If I was a betting man, I'd wager this continues somewhat longer. I'd give > 50% odds that Oil sees $55 in the next 2 weeks. That's my 2 cents of analysis.
 
If WTI Crude Oil goes to $55, then CVX can go to $100 in the next 2 weeks, imho.

It's worth noting that when Oil collapsed in 2014, oil stocks didn't fall that much. There was probably a lot of head scratching among analysts. However, when oil prices fell a comparably smaller percentage in 2015, the bottom fell out of oil stocks. The only explanation I can think of is that major institutional investors were hoping and holding on in 2014, then in 2015 they dumped oil stocks en masse.
 
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I like the fact that Cramer doesn't trust this commodity-led rally. Gives me more confidence that it has some more to go. Hopefully see $55 crude oil later this month.

http://realmoney.thestreet.com/articles/10/09/2015/dont-put-your-faith-commodity-led-rally

Don't Put Your Faith in This Commodity-Led Rally
By
JIM CRAMER
Follow
| OCT 09, 2015 | 10:42 AM EDT | 0

  • The leap-of-faith rally in commodities is driving this market. So if oil takes a downtick, the market will take a downtick.

    I typically don't like a commodity-led rally because that is too reminiscent of what happened in the runup to the great recession.

    This rally, however, is about the production cutbacks, not increased demand -- which, frankly, is almost nowhere to be found.

    Take this morning's news. We have Glencore (GLCNF) blinking and cutting back zinc production. That's huge. Everyone in the zinc business was waiting for everyone else to blink. Now the cutbacks can happen across the board.

    Don't be surprised if we get the long-awaited cutback in iron ore. That metal's gone insanely low, because Vale (VALE), BHP Billiton (BHP) and Rio Tinto (RIO), which basically control the market, have refused to cut back. The zinc production cut could serve as a prelude to that iron ore cutback.

    Copper has been climbing -- in part, because Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) has decided to slack production.

    And this morning, International Paper (IP) announced it is exiting a coated board business in China. That is a big change for an industry that seemed to think that business in China would grow sky-high.

    Realism is setting in. China's not coming back any time soon. If you go over the latest Alcoa quarter, you will feel the same.

    Funny, these companies were all over-producing as China's growth rate collapsed. It is easy to reach the conclusion that they will be as wrong, this time, with their cutbacks as they were with their overproduction.

    Either way it is good news for stocks that haven't had a moment's respite from the downside for ages.

    To be sure, though, it is supply, not demand, that is driving these stocks higher.
 
blakpacman said:
"now I am asking if you think the Oil Run is done or would you hold out for a bigger gain?"

You caught the meat of the move in oil stocks.

$50 is strong resistance for Crude Oil, but today has briefly pierced new highs since July and holding so far along the upper range. If it goes higher, then $55 is next target for October. $55 is a nice fib number too. One could say that the move off from Aug low 40 to 50 would correspond with a measured move from 45 to 55, esp with 45 to 50 wedge range projecting to $55 off the range expansion. Certainly a possibility. I think whether this happens will depend on the stock market. The recent upside in oil coincided with rising stock prices around the world, also coinciding with the payroll miss leading to delayed rate hike expectations and reversal of emerging market outflows, thus juicing the risk on environment. Will this continue? If I was a betting man, I'd wager this continues somewhat longer. I'd give > 50% odds that Oil sees $55 in the next 2 weeks. That's my 2 cents of analysis.
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Thanks Bp, have a few ideas to share you might want to consider, a private thread as usual? I like your research, think you might like these strong stocks ready to break out!
 
I've been positioning for weeks. Had a few of my larger options positions stopped, but have been in $UWTI (I know not long term) as well as $DNR and $CSIQ as proxy bets. $DNR is very beaten down and has performed well over past week. Syria, Russia, Saudi Arabia are all big question marks and US Oil, will benefit.
 
I find it odd that people who don't post ideas are the first to call "Foul!". This will be the last "Capital Gain" thread because Elite's very good traders know its a waste of time posting their ideas, just plain wrong and a waste of time. When you thoroughly answer people's questions five times and they ask the same questions over and over, that's when I know the Professionals on Elite are tired when they too leave threads totally empty, they were speaking through silence and I was too deaf to understand their great posts, thank you for making me understand!



I dumped this garbage stock once the Pumpers brought her over $1.00, posted this day I had sold almost all of it. Starting buying (I posted that yet could not reveal my pick because it was not a good stock), when my Pump Radar was screaming "Pumpers are building positions up at $.50-$.60, stock went from $.60 to $88 to $1.10 (final open and death spiral).

View attachment 158024 Oh Wow, the Clean Coal link don't work, thank you experts for helping this blind man see!

Everyone had a chance to step up and buy Glencore, if Molycorp, BTU got a big Dead Cat bounce logic and past experience said Glencore would jump up. It did, it hit $4.00+on Friday allowing me to post this since its above the $3.00 threshold. Now its all sold, rules are rules, we must obey them! Where did I sell Glencore, what do you think the Trade Confirmations say, was it $3.90 to $4.10.


View attachment 158023 Awe shucks and fiddle sticks, my Glencore swinger failed to posts, dangnabbit :O
 
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