Diary of a very bad trader!

B

Brianharvey

Hi.

Thought it might be fun to watch a very bad trader (me!) embarass themselves.

Recently, I am losing VERY consistently. Quite impressive, really.
Last month or so, i've been averaging about (-60 ticks) per day on the CL. Typically about 10 trades per day (using 5 minute chart for entry).
I'd expect better results flipping a coin wth equal stop/target, but i could be wrong.

I'm tempted to just fade myself, but before that, I've been tying to tweak things and monitor results.

I changed my method a little this week (as well as making certain that my target is always bigger than my stop) with slightly better results, although obviously still nicely in the red

I upload my account performance for this WEEK

Also TODAYS chart
(I've add my own dots in on the chart, as it looks too messy using ninjatraders arrows/text)
Red=short, green=long, blue=exit

attachment.php
 

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Quote from Brianharvey:

Recently, I am losing VERY consistently. Quite impressive, really.
Last month or so, i've been averaging about (-60 ticks) per day on the CL. Typically about 10 trades per day (using 5 minute chart for entry).
I'd expect better results flipping a coin wth equal stop/target, but i could be wrong.
More...

Is it that you have a tested trading plan describing the setups that signal a potential trade, the contextual filters that validate the setups, risk:reward parameters and exit strategies, and you're simply unable to follow it, or is it that you're trading based on some ideas you have?
 
Dude just looking at your entry and exits it looks to me like your stops are too tight and you aren't taking profits quick enough or that you even have a strategy for taking profits. It's hard to use really tight stops on shorter time frames because of the increased noise at those levels.

Do you review your trades at the end of the day? Do you have a methodology that guides your trading or are you just guessing?
 
Quote from NoDoji:

Is it that you have a tested trading plan describing the setups that signal a potential trade, the contextual filters that validate the setups, risk:reward parameters and exit strategies, and you're simply unable to follow it, or is it that you're trading based on some ideas you have?
More...

I have a trading plan describing setups/filters etc.
I am able to follow it well.
I can take stops like an emotionless robot.

I can't code, so all testing was done manually. Promising results (although hard to judge properly when doing it manually) and encouraging live results for a few months.

However, for a while now, when I wake up in the morning, I can guarantee that i'll likely lose about 60 pips each day!

It seems that one must know in advance what type of day we will have (choppy vs trendy). I always seem to get it wrong. If I take a 'with trend entry at the 20 ema' it tends to fly up through it and begins a new trend.

If I go with more of a breakout type method, i'm always buying tops, or it chops around giving me multiple stop outs.

I'll post a new chart after Mondays session to see how I did.
 
Quote from actionzip54:

Dude just looking at your entry and exits it looks to me like your stops are too tight and you aren't taking profits quick enough or that you even have a strategy for taking profits. It's hard to use really tight stops on shorter time frames because of the increased noise at those levels.

Do you review your trades at the end of the day? Do you have a methodology that guides your trading or are you just guessing?
More...

thanks for commenting.
Yes. My stops are based on the price action, but TEND to be around 25 ticks. Is that that tight for 5 min trading? Some people tell me that use like 6 tick stops on CL.


When I used bigger stops (around 50-60 ticks) I had an amazing run of winning trades. (lots and lots of +30 tick trades) but then a small bad patch took all them profits away.

So, i'm implementing some other advice given to me to just make sure that my profit target is bigger than my stop.

Since doing this my results have been marginally better so far, although, like you noted, sometimes I have a fairly decent profit which evaporates into either Breakeven or a stopout
 
Quote from Brianharvey:

thanks for commenting.
Yes. My stops are based on the price action, but TEND to be around 25 ticks. Is that that tight for 5 min trading? Some people tell me that use like 6 tick stops on CL.


When I used bigger stops (around 50-60 ticks) I had an amazing run of winning trades. (lots and lots of +30 tick trades) but then a small bad patch took all them profits away.

So, i'm implementing some other advice given to me to just make sure that my profit target is bigger than my stop.

Since doing this my results have been marginally better so far, although, like you noted, sometimes I have a fairly decent profit which evaporates into either Breakeven or a stopout
More...

I use a volatility measure to determine my stop distance as well as my target. It doesn't really matter how you do it just find something that works. Remember that if you make your target much larger than your stop your win rate is going to drop and vice versa. Trading on a 5 minute time frame you are going to need a win rate over 50%,imo, to combat slip and spread issues.

Good luck.
 
Quote from Brianharvey:

I have a trading plan describing setups/filters etc.
I am able to follow it well.
I can take stops like an emotionless robot.

I can't code, so all testing was done manually. Promising results (although hard to judge properly when doing it manually) and encouraging live results for a few months.

However, for a while now, when I wake up in the morning, I can guarantee that i'll likely lose about 60 pips each day!

It seems that one must know in advance what type of day we will have (choppy vs trendy). I always seem to get it wrong. If I take a 'with trend entry at the 20 ema' it tends to fly up through it and begins a new trend.

If I go with more of a breakout type method, i'm always buying tops, or it chops around giving me multiple stop outs.

I'll post a new chart after Mondays session to see how I did.
More...

Describing setups and filters is only a preliminary step, assuming that you've observed the market long enough to come up with preliminary setups and filters in the first place. After that comes a lot of testing: backtesting, forwardtesting, and simtrading. Your situation suggests that the testing phase was at best inadequate.

Testing is a loop. You find something that looks interesting, you try it out, it doesn't work, you go back and begin again, which is the process described in the pdf I gave you. If you are essentially making it up as you go along, you can't be surprised at the situation in which you find yourself.
 
Quote from Brianharvey:

My stops are based on the price action, but TEND to be around 25 ticks. Is that that tight for 5 min trading? Some people tell me that use like 6 tick stops on CL.
More...

If you're averaging 10 trades a day using a 5-min chart, you're scalping. IMHO, a 25-tick stop is ridiculous for a scalper. If you were holding for 40-50 tick targets, and had a very consistent 45-50% win rate over each series of 10 trades, then a 25-tick stop makes sense. But in the current CL market environment (which has been going on for about 2 years now), catching individual 40-50 tick runs is the exception, not the rule.

I sent you a PM.
 
keep doing what you're doing..and by that I mean consistently losing...if you can consistently lose for a month I'll start fading your calls and send you a percentage of the profits
 
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