Dgabriel's Swing Journal

This journal's first post spoke of this and it seems to be waking up. Many of the pharmas are so I wonder if something is happening on Capitol Hill that will spell good fortune for the drugs, or maybe some have been beaten up too much, or that this is an early rotation into this group as a defensive measure, I don't know. MRK had two big volume days up, LLY has been in a uptrend, AZN has been positive, PFE a big day today, GSK a breakout, NVS, ABT, etc.

Anyway, PRX' 50 dma has caught up with it and I wonder if it will finally break out. It has to clear 74.50 on good volume, preferably 2x average.
 

Attachments

Long APPX 31.85 closed 32.23 + 1.38
Long IMOS 8.38 closed 8.01 -.37
Stopped out CPTV 12.10 - .54 (this I managed poorly)

As promised, enclosed is a P & L spreadsheet for trades initiated this past week, and about which any questions may be asked.

I have a enough confidence in my selection at this point to continue trades, however, I feel I must hone my trade management to exploit profit potential and limit losses.

As I have put this all out here, I invite any comments, questions, criticisms (within the realm of civility please).
 

Attachments

This is at a juncture. at the 50% line (41)and the flattening 200 ema(39.40). The 200 sma (36) roughly coincides now with the 61.8% line (34).

THe possibilites include

1) Apathy and a meandering with no significant volatility. I doubt this.

2) and orderly exit and continued downtrend

3) a break of 40 and many stops hit, with perhaps a downward thrust. The downtrend then continues until who knows when.

3a) The stock breaks 40 sells to the 200 sma and rebounds, setting an inverted H&S

There has some negative press on this lately, following thier disappointing earnings recently.

November call options trump puts at strikes 45, 50, 55 by more than 2.5/1, but December Puts at these strikes outnumber calls nearly 1.5 to 1.

And December 35 Puts open interest number 8230 while the corresponding calls number 2001.

From a TA view, 35 might a good downside target, and locus of support, and potential reversal.
 

Attachments

Quote from dgabriel:

I have a enough confidence in my selection at this point to continue trades, however, I feel I must hone my trade management to exploit profit potential and limit losses.

As I have put this all out here, I invite any comments, questions, criticisms (within the realm of civility please).
More...

The selection process is only one part of the trading business. The money management scheme and the allocation of funds are perhaps even more important. I really don't see from your speadsheet how you allocate your money. I even don't know how well you are doing percentwise as I have no idea what size your portfolio is, where your entries are, etc.

I recently started swing trading stocks and I allocate equal amounts per stock. My starting portfolio was $24K and I hold only 2 stocks at a time. If they hit my exits within 5 days that's great, otherwise I evaluate their performance and can exit within the next two days if I see that there is little hope for the stock to reach my target. I try to make it simple.

I hope to make 8% per portfolio per month and will be compounding my stake quarterly. So far so good.
 
Quote from electron:



The selection process is only one part of the trading business. The money management scheme and the allocation of funds are perhaps even more important. I really don't see from your speadsheet how you allocate your money. I even don't know how well you are doing percentwise as I have no idea what size your portfolio is, where your entries are, etc.

I recently started swing trading stocks and I allocate equal amounts per stock. My starting portfolio was $24K and I hold only 2 stocks at a time. If they hit my exits within 5 days that's great, otherwise I evaluate their performance and can exit within the next two days if I see that there is little hope for the stock to reach my target. I try to make it simple.

I hope to make 8% per portfolio per month and will be compounding my stake quarterly. So far so good.
More...

I hope you do too.

I allocate about 10-20k per position depending on the volatility of the issue. Daytrades, which I do not include in this thread, I treat differently, but I am no longer so active in that sphere. My entries are listed on the spreadsheet as "Price". I should have called that "cost" or "entry price". I will change it next week.

This account had 65k at the start of the week.
 
Today might be the first shot across the bow that the 8 month rally's days are numbered more resolutely. Thus far, there is a 90% down in volume, and I have never seen a 90% down day in volume but not points.

I will perform an analysis of NYSE, NAZ, RUSSELL 2000 at the end of the day.

I still favor the long side, but it appears that breadth is diminishin and more sectors are getting hammered.

CELL broke down today and I shorted it intraday but closed the market is now oversold and I suspect the primary trend will reassert itself shortly. So I would not open any shorts now.
 
That 90% day evaporated in the afternoon, so forget Imentioned it.

Update:

Existing positions and net from entry:

CACS 12.78 +1.93
DJO 22.45 -.48


Today's trades

Covered TASR short 58.70 +.15
Stopped out of 2/3 of IMOS position 7.85 - .53 still long 500s, closed at 7.74 -.64
Sold APPX in two lots, average price 34.55 + 3.75. Look at the chart and notice how the news this manana on it was anticipated, foretold, and already known.
Long NVLS 42.40 closed 42.60 + .20
Long ATRS 29.65 closed 30.10 +.45
Long CECO 43.40 closed 45.81 +2.41. Bounce play.

I may post some setups later
 
I posting a few charts of stocks that have high RS vs. the SP500 for 1 year and that painted bullish hammers today.

The idea is that the weak hands were forced out during the selloff of the last few days, resulting in a short term capitulation folowed by a either vigorous short covering/ new longs or both.
A characteristic of these formation over the last 8 months has been followthrough the next day, although nothing is certain and I don't have any stats to back that up, my statement is purely anecdotal and derived from my own experience.

Charts on following posts
 
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