Dgabriel's Swing Journal

Quote from dgabriel:


If it opens well above, I don't buy but wait, if it travels through 74 on light volume, I wait and assess, if it goes strong, I buy. If it breaks out and I buy and it is faded hard, I get out. I only want it if it goes, and if it does and it gets to 75 for example, my stop is breakeven.

The volume on the selloffs don't bother me. A look back (which aa certain someone did not do) shows high volume one-two day selloffs after breakouts, but the stoock always consolidated and advanced. The volume and price action here is certainly not akin to a climax run.
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I agree about the BO plan. Strong defense has been the way to go lately. If it doesn't go, to hell with it. Look for a continuation entry later, if there is one.

As for the high-volume selloffs, those are pretty much old news by now, but one could interpret all this as shares changing from strong hands to weak. You'll find out if and when the thing breaks out.
 
Grob, I don't see any prior failed breakout at 74.

The triangle is the process of the shift in the balance.

A failure would be to penetrate the top of of the triangle by say a point or so, and then trade down and close below it.

And these scenarios may not pan out at all, it could dribble up, or get slammed, break out hard, or meander.

It's the thrust I am on the lookout for.

I am only on alert, and have no commitment one way or another at present.

NUS is setting up to go. tomorrow may be the day. And there are aa dozen or so that traded large range, above recent consolidations, or hit new highs, that could move tomorrow as well. Most are mid caps some are: ULBI PVT PMCS. FARO could extend further, but its thin, and getting cuaght on the wrong side could be painful, its best on the first thrust after a decent pullback or pause ZIGO is up against its trendline and could be good if it pierces.

The long side has been good.
 
We are using differing breakout conventions.

You have drawn a line. The stock stays below the line. In this case it comes to your line and then goes down in a sell off. This for you is not a failure to break out. It is something else for you.

Your line is where you buy apparently. It has never broken out of 74 for you. For you it did not trade at 74 today.

You have rules you use to consider it above the triangle you drew.


I use another convention. When a stock price approaches a formation top four times in a row and then does not go through the top, I think of it as a failure to BO four times in a row.

I only use FTP's on 30 minute charts. FTP's for me are different. The price bars are always hitting the top every bar. The bottoms of the bar continually pull up and bar by bar the volume decreases. when the point begins to appear, it is a timing signal for me. I check the days volume of the last couple of days and then monitor to see that volume broken out seriously in the AM of the next day.

This stock comes to the point over and over. Then the stock does a fade very consistently on higher volume. It is your belief that it will break out up on low volume because of the reasons in your first post. I find that pennants that break out on the flat side do it with increased high volume. Your stock continues and has in the past to breakout down out of FTP's and a sell off volume occurs as well.

A daily chart with a formation a couple of months long where it is observed for a couple of months is not appealing to me as an investor. especially if the price is not pushing the resistance all the time at some point in the day.

It is a good oppotunity to to you and phoenix. And it is your choice. It is possible that you will get to not buy it again for a fourth time.

The stock gapped up a while back. That seems like a more likely scenario than the one going on in the present. Did you trade that gap?? You search for this formation formally and by eye balling, what do these stcks do that appeals to you??

Do you use the four up and three up of the place you got your chart from??
 
It's not my belief that it will break out on low volume. I would not harbor a prognostication.

As I said in my prior post, I consider the various possibilities of future action, what I might do or not do in such events, and maintain a vigil.

I did not trade it before.

It is only the breakout possibility that interests me. I have no interest in fading it at these levels. In a bearish backdrop, I would feel differently.

It may have a brick wall at 74, and if so, I do nothing.

4 up and 3 up? If you mean point and figure, no.

From the investor standpoint, I agree the 3 month chart is of little use standalone, this is a trade idea only.

 
PRX triggered but volume was weak. Took a small position at 74.14 and was stopped out 73.6. WIll watch it again tomorrow.

Will post again Sunday
 
Well, again today, not Sunday with a few stocks I am watching.


First a reversal candidate. BVF.

Two downside breakawy gaps, high volume. Earnings yesterday and what appears to be an exhaustion gap today and a bullish hammer. This I will watch to see if it can base and reverse. It may bounce on short covering in the next few days.
 

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FLML.

In a downtrend after a 500% markup.

1) 11.5 points down
2) 8 points up
3) 12 points down
bounce 6-1/2 points in one day, but now paintinga bear flag.

I would short on a break of the flag, and see if it finds support at the gap, if it doesn't, trading to the lower side of the gap is a reasonable target.
 

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It looks like it split :D

I don't follow it, but if I were desperate to have it, I would have put a buy above yesterday's high, given how the "big boys" love that 200MA. Now? No. I'd wait for the test.
 
FLML worked out well, entered a short at 26.30 and closed after it hit 25 and bounced on that gap - closed at 25.15.

Other setups are on the following posts
 
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