Developing a System for Maximum Efficiency

Quote from easyrider:

Quote from Grob109:

But it is an improvement from my starting point of penciling daily charts in 1957.]

I was in high school. You are ancient, dude.
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Dude, my parents were in high school. ;)
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I color coded my response, I hope.

Quote from AAAintheBeltway:

Jack,

So you are saying you look for the MA of the YM to confirm or fail to confirm the cash?

Yes.

Or is it vice versa?

There is a fine point. At any time, the action of smart money tools being excercised in the market is a "smart" anticipation of the "cash" that, then is followed by ES players who are showing their cards on the DOM. Smart money does not get in line for anything it wants to do. The people in line on DOM are followers of smart money.


Isn't that the same as watching the PREM for the S&P?

This is the Q of the week. At some point, several of the admonitions offered on ET get a chance to bear fruit. There are a set about working. The chart I remmend is an outgrowth of watching the quote sheet of INDU and YM. We needed more than our senses and short term memory could give us. PREM needs the same kind of more. PREM tells you the offset and nothing about how it is getting "offset".

Certainly a quick rise can signal program activity, but you have to be awfully quick to catch it.

This is a Steve type comment. (See his if volume does x you get one of the possibilities for price (without saying it is only one of the possibilities) (He has only found one by testing apparently)). We need a neutral bias here as a starter. You are making a good observation, but there are two other equally important ones that will round out the first level of possible observations. You can also see a quick drop. And you can observe that it continues to neither rise or drop. As for all investing, when you have three possibilities you are monitoring trending potentials.

What makes this a killer question is that you can use the fact that smart money leads cash to be able to anticipate and MOST important, continue to make money until there is none to be made.

This is the "hair trigger mentality" cure.

I posted a log for smart money monitoring. For smart money to lead in a long trend, the offset drops before the trend begins. The offset continues as the smaller value as long as the trend maitains it's pace. (See "taping"). Conversely, for the beginning of a short, the smart money leads the price downward. This means what you now see occurs. You now see the beginning of shorts. This stretch will continue as long as the short pace persists.

the monitoring of PREM is a rare example of how a small value indicates a long trend and a larger value indicatesa short trend.

You can see by what you wrote that your jury is still out on what is happening when the value rises quickly. That is commendable for sure.


For "hair triggeritis" the queese or stretch continuing gets a person past the scalp periodicity. But, in the metaphor of the airplane take off, how does the person stay in the trade until it is exhausted. Well you look at the formations on the chart. The INDU bars prevail (by color is sufficient I use red for short, black for long). Sooner or later the trend pace is levened. I use my operating point matrix to examine this. I have not made this public and I am going to introduce it in my broadcasts when I get a medical go ahead. A colleague is also stocking Amazon with a required reading book and another team is doing a translation of another text into English.

Briefly, you can examine thoroughly all trends and monitor their maturity and the sequences they go through as they process. As an example the fist trend of each day isusally fast paced and unwavering up to the point of hitches, then dips and finally stalls on that fractal. After that the trend stages as the A/D (Accumulation/ Distribution) periodicity dominates the volume periodicity within the dominant price trend. This is seen as the appearance of the "point 3" and the widening of the channel where traveses first appear.

It is like he theme of an orchestral piece going from flute to oboe. at first the fundamental of the notation is dominant then as in the oboe, a double reed, a harmonic is dominant and the theme is deepened for our senses.

Also, you previously mentioned the concept of relative volume in individual issues and pointed out that QCharts reports this as "unusual vol". Do you know what the number they report actually represents?

Through the day it is the decimal equivant of the percent of the ratio of the volume so far divided by the 65 day average. Logically at roll over for from quarters or months there is aserios transient to deal with. The Fall quarter is most deprived of quality since it follows the summer. We have to understand that financial programmers do not know how to make money, and conversely, people who know how to make money do not know how to program.

I am caught in a cross fire on this. At IBM I was considered an idiot savant vis avis large systems. As vacuum tube set ups I could trouble shoot them from the console because I knew all the circuitry. I keep a set of flow sheets that mechanize all that I do in futures. They comprise the wall story board you saw in my set up pictures.

Several people have seen them but I have not been able to hand them off yet for creating the software. The initial seven equations I did for TC2000 Ver 3.0 are imbedded all over the place at his time for securities.

If it is a ratio to 65 day average volume, do they adjust it for time of day?

The numerator is cummulative through the day. the 65 is adjusted after close.

What do you consider an unusual enough number to warrant action?

I class volume for utility into three values. There is a volume thread running now that I can't participate in because of health (I cannot begin anything now that represents a block of effort). I did, because of exaspiration, type a fewwords and one followon at the request of a moderator.

The "unusual" can be used as a trigger if you merely calibrate these three values.

Action is warranted on an opportunity when the volume shows that the DU is exceeded within the first two hours of a day and providing the equity is in DU (Score 0). You can exit the day after the volume on a prorata basis does not attain peaking volume.

FBO is measured day 1 and after by a prorata assessment of the FRV daily.

DU is dry upyou find it by looking at 6 months of daily graphs. It is the sleeping value of volume as a stock comes into a trough.

Peaking volume is the higher value of stock volume shown on a 6 months chart.

FRV is the first rising volume on the day of the price breakout. It usually runs as a multiple of DU. use 3 to rough it out. You find it on a six month chart by looking a five prior BO's.

There is an excel sheet containing all this at the site.

To cogently look at this stuff, look at all the posts inandlong did to help everyone out.

There are some outstanding examples at ET of people who do not agree with any of this stuff. Even more compelling is the set of ET'er's who object to all of this stuff. It nets out that about 4 out of 5 people do not relate nor wish to do the work to get in shape for the IQ and EQ demands made of working like this to make money. I rank the commodities stuff I do as fourth best of all the approaches I track. The equities stuff is 50 times less fast for appreciating capital.
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I hardly know where to begin. Jack, I cannot make any sense out of your comments. One gets the impression that at some point in your life you might have been a person of considerable intellect. Unfortunately your ability to communicate with your fellow man seems to be impaired. If I am wrong in my understanding of some concept, I would be indebted to you if you would help me to correct my view. All you have to do is take a moment and re-phrase your comments in a way that can be understood by the rest of us. I hope you will take this seriously. It seems to me a great waste of your talent and experience to be known primarily as an eccentric personality who communicates in "word salad". I am guessing that many others reading this opinion might agree. I wish you well Jack. Thanks. Steve46
 
Quote from steve46:

I hardly know where to begin. Jack, I cannot make any sense out of your comments. One gets the impression that at some point in your life you might have been a person of considerable intellect. Unfortunately your ability to communicate with your fellow man seems to be impaired. If I am wrong in my understanding of some concept, I would be indebted to you if you would help me to correct my view. All you have to do is take a moment and re-phrase your comments in a way that can be understood by the rest of us. I hope you will take this seriously. It seems to me a great waste of your talent and experience to be known primarily as an eccentric personality who communicates in "word salad". I am guessing that many others reading this opinion might agree. I wish you well Jack. Thanks. Steve46
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Its a patten going on for a while here on ET. If it was tradable I would take a full position everytime.. lol

Someone starts a rather intellectual thread regarding system trading.... then Jack flexes his abstract thinking muscle.. struts his crap that no one really understands and diverts the entire thread to his posts. Then 20 people will try to interpret it.. and then it ends up getting its own thread altogether.

Same sh*t different thread.


--MIKE
 
Quote from steve46:

I hardly know where to begin. Jack, I cannot make any sense out of your comments. One gets the impression that at some point in your life you might have been a person of considerable intellect. Unfortunately your ability to communicate with your fellow man seems to be impaired. If I am wrong in my understanding of some concept, I would be indebted to you if you would help me to correct my view. All you have to do is take a moment and re-phrase your comments in a way that can be understood by the rest of us. I hope you will take this seriously. It seems to me a great waste of your talent and experience to be known primarily as an eccentric personality who communicates in "word salad". I am guessing that many others reading this opinion might agree. I wish you well Jack. Thanks. Steve46
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:D:cool:
 
Quote from steve46:

I hardly know where to begin. Jack, I cannot make any sense out of your comments. One gets the impression that at some point in your life you might have been a person of considerable intellect. Unfortunately your ability to communicate with your fellow man seems to be impaired. If I am wrong in my understanding of some concept, I would be indebted to you if you would help me to correct my view. All you have to do is take a moment and re-phrase your comments in a way that can be understood by the rest of us. I hope you will take this seriously. It seems to me a great waste of your talent and experience to be known primarily as an eccentric personality who communicates in "word salad". I am guessing that many others reading this opinion might agree. I wish you well Jack. Thanks. Steve46
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Your statements in the volume thread which you request that I deal with are important in the way you state. I view them from a different viewpoint. I don't want anyone to think for a minute that they can build on what you said.

My comments are made to create pictures that people can consider. Most often I use what they can see on a screen or that they can make into tangible picture on a piece of paper. I put them in a position where they can find out if they can give thought to a pragmatic expresion and then provisionally consider adding it to their quiver of knowledge, understanding, skills, and experience. I expect them to continue with this small beginning point and add the more powerful stuff to it that comes from what accompanies the above.

Trend Fader speaks here and has told us one thing he has gained so far. He is, so far, just stepping along side you while you emphasize what he expressed about a year ago. Trend fader has grasped at this point that I only talk about one thing.

You both characterize the quality of what I do. Naturally the failing that I have need to be handled. This done, then you can make money using it or, at least, with understanding chuck it.

I have very strong views on learning and how learning works. From your vantage point, you will be glad to hear that the testing associated to derive my viewpoints, was well recieved and found to be acceptable.

Corroborrating stuff from allied fields happens to be "where the action is", however.

People can either learn or not depending upon their memory function. Sensory input gets procesed and "learned" and stored in memory. Then if memory has utility with regard to application, a person engages in processing what he has going for him.

The senses, fortunately or unfortunately, do not function independantly, ever. They are paired, in their operation with something else.

I know this and have devoted years in dealing with why people and how people are disabled regarding learning.

If I have a sample of learning that is 100% of my contact population for ten years and it shows an increase in aptitude that is a 1.23 sigma deviation on a +/- 3 sigma deviation, then anyone has the opportunity to conclude that something is going on.

For the humor of it consider this dark side comment. There is a class of people here who are of a given sort. They have a focus and a particular attitude, say. Then there is me. My view is that secrecy and keep your cards close is no advantage whatsoever. I simple give away what I know works to others hoping that they will pass it forward as I do. I do not want what I do to be commercialized because it prevents others from having it because of cost barriers.

Here is the dark humor. What if I design a system of imparting my stuff to others that prevents a$$holes from using it or selling it to others. Well we all know that is not possible. It would really take a smart guy to do something like that.

In a lighter vein. It isn't actually what is going on but there is an opportunity to find out why some people (4 out of 5 at this point) do not understand, learn about or have any appreciation for what I have been saying. It is not really important stuff it looks like.

There is just one other general consideration that can be made. I think it is impossible for most people to learn to be successful in trading for one specific body of related reasons. It all ties into one essential human quality. I gave an example of IQ above (key word aptitude).

I am getting well enough to resume my stuff soon. As I have gone through the paces of getting restabilized and getting under control, a team of people have worked very hard. I got to broaden my research to corroborate stuff on this general consideration. So we will will embark shortly on getting under way.

You will be able to consider why my stuff is so unacceptable in a new light. It turns out that there are profound reasons why people cannot understand nor learn my stuff. The subject has been continually discussed here and a record has been made.

One of my first tasks was to build a few profiles on the more outstanding contributors to the record. They fortunately span the waterfront vis a vis psychological types. In this thread, four of them are participating.

The thing that I am going to be focussing on most is how learning is blocked as the consequences of a person's experience. welcome to the club Steve. Trend fader can fill you in.
 
Since their are people who cant comprehend what Jack is trying to convey, i will try to summarize to my best what I understand of Jacks' posts regarding the BO and FBO using the YM/INDU spread.
His posts are usually a tough read first time around. If you really take the time to understand it though, it will really pay off.

This is my interpretation of using the YM/INDU spread. The YM is considered the smart money and will indicate whether the BO in the ES will be sustained or fail. Usually the $INDU will lead the BO and then look for the YM to confirm the BO or not. For a long BO to be successful when approaching Resistence, the YM/INDU spread will be small (squeeze) indicating that the YM is right behind the INDU in the BO confirming that both want to go in the same direction. If the YM fails to squeeze during a BO of resistance, the smart money is indicating that it does not want to follow suit of the INDU and will lead to a FBO and reversal. This can be reversed for a short. When we approach support, we look for the INDU to go first(minor squeeze before the BO down) and then a stretch to be wide to indicate that the YM is approving the INDU push down and will lead it down. This is just my interpretation of Jack's post and i hope it helps. I appreciate Jack posting and am very glad to hear that his health is getting better. I also appreciate everyone else in this thread that are contributing and asking questions.


JC
 
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