Deutsch Bank

This is the best BSC chart I could find. Remember that once it broke $70 it was over, it was more or less a straight line to $2. Looking at this chart, there's not much volume here. The volume in March 2008 before the break below $70 is not much higher than October when it was still flying high above $120. Nobody was stepping up to buy BSC at $75. By contrast, there are tons of buyers of DB at these levels. Buyers are stepping up. I'm not saying DB is a buy, I'm saying that the chances DB breaks and enters freefall ala BSC are very low.

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vanzandt said:
Thats what I thought when I bought Bear Stearns on 3/14/08 @ $32 .... a fine Friday afternoon it was.

Monday it closed @ $4.12.

Apples to Apples? Who knows. But they let on everything was under control too.
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And you got lucky that JPM screwed up. Otherwise it would have been <2
 
newwurldmn said:
Marty, why is DB in so much trouble? Is it a lack of revenues? Or does it have to do with mis marked assets?
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I posted earlier on this thread... It's a combination of a) a business model which isn't suitable for the current regulatory environment (i.e. ultimately lack of revenue/ROE), and b) the size and uncertainty arnd the potential legal liabilities (the DoJ being the largest of the lot, but not the only one). The reason the latter is so particularly damaging is the stupidity and arrogance of DB management throughout all these scandals.

To the best of my knowledge, it's not the level 3 assets and it's emphatically NOT the notional size of their derivatives portfolio.
 
I’m confident that this is not Lehman 2008. It is, however, a state of clear and accelerating franchise damage, and there is certainly a point at which that franchise damage becomes so severe that it can’t support its cost base. The worry that ought to be on management and the market’s minds is not a fast and catastrophic collapse, but a gradual transition to a run-off situation in which no long-term funding can be raised and therefore no new business can be initiated. This company needs to raise equity, fast, and settle its litigation, as fast as it can, and not to worry unduly about the cost of doing so.

 
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