Deutsch Bank

Sig said:
That's not specifics. Specifics would be "There is a $5B Dec 2017 Note outstanding that becomes due in full when market cap falls below $15B". Hope is not a strategy, and the problem with going short DB is you have to hope that both this derivative chain exists and hope that the German govt won't intervene, IMO. There are a lot of shorts with a similar risk reward picture without the chance of govt intervention, and if I was counting on a derivatives house of cards I'd be doing some digging to see if it actually exists and if so what the proximate triggers are.

Of course if you're just looking forward to some schadenfreude to see a big IB go under, in that case I guess it's all upside.
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If you see a house of cards what's the probability that counter parties engineered risk and lent capital knowing full well that capital would never be paid back and taking a counter larger position betting on its implosion.

It's similar to taking life insurance policy on a heroin addict, while being the drug dealer selling heroin to the addict.
 
Spectre2007 said:
Soros is short 7.5 billion of its stock apparently.
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He's short nearly 50% of the float of DB (which is $16B per what you posted)? That's a pretty massive bet! The latest short interest shows DB at 41.7M shares, which at the $12 price you posted represents $.5 billion of the alleged $7.5 billion that Soros is short. Where is the other $7B?
Data driven decisions are so easy in today's world, just a couple minutes research can support or debunk almost anything you've heard. No need to fly blind and base your investment decisions on something like this that doesn't seem very credible at either first or second glance.
 
Spectre2007 said:
If you see a house of cards what's the probability that counter parties engineered risk and lent capital knowing full well that capital would never be paid back and taking a counter larger position betting on its implosion.

It's similar to taking life insurance policy on a heroin addict, while being the drug dealer selling heroin to the addict.
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The German Newspaper Die Welt reported that the great George Soros had recently opened a short position of 0.51% of Deutsche Bank's outstanding shares. This equates to seven million shares, worth $7.5 billion.
 
Spectre2007 said:
The German Newspaper Die Welt reported that the great George Soros had recently opened a short position of 0.51% of Deutsche Bank's outstanding shares. This equates to seven million shares, worth $7.5 billion.
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Ah, if only this were the case... I don't think 0.51% of DoucheBank was ever in history worth $7.5bn.
 
Spectre2007 said:
The German Newspaper Die Welt reported that the great George Soros had recently opened a short position of 0.51% of Deutsche Bank's outstanding shares. This equates to seven million shares, worth $7.5 billion.
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If DB's market cap is $16B, which is a number I got from your graphic btw, then how is .51% of DB's outstanding shares worth $7.5B? I'm pretty certain the math is .0051*16,000,000,000=$81.6M. Or alternately, 7 million shares of a $12 stock (again your numbers) is 7,000,000*12=$84M=$.084B. This is a much more credible number.
 
Sig said:
If DB's market cap is $16B, which is a number I got from your graphic btw, then how is .51% of DB's outstanding shares worth $7.5B? I'm pretty certain the math is .0051*16,000,000,000=$81.6M. Or alternately, 7 million shares of a $12 stock (again your numbers) is 7,000,000*12=$84M. Am I missing something here? how does $.084B turn into $7.5B?
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It's calculation mistake on news wires.
 
Spectre2007 said:
It's calculation mistake on news wires.
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That's why I'd advocate that you do some quick mental screens and a little digging rather than depending on easily debunked info. First off, you knew the market cap of DB, so someone telling you that Soros is short half its market cap should strike you as unusual enough to do some more research before taking it as gospel. Second, you know the price and the number of shares, without even doing the math you can see the number is off by an entire order of magnitude. And this is just the very easy to quantify question on how much Soros is short, it says nothing about a "house of cards" that may or may not exist.

DB may very well fail, but I'd submit that the probability you've assigned that failure is far higher than the actual probability.
 
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Ofcourse she can...
 
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