Determining the trend

Quote from White Horse:

The opening range time frame is a matter of personal preference... some people like 30 mins but impatient folks like me prefer a 5 minutes opening range.

I use the 5 minute opening range in the futures markets of my preference and add a stretch above/below similar to the one described by Toby Crabel in his legendary book. I don't go long once it trades above with a stop on the other side of the range... I use the OR as an indication of bias and try to go long when the market is moving up using pullbacks in the 1 minute chart.

Even though is always better to keep an eye on the trend of the hourly chart I have found good trades defying the trend if price is above the OR.

The opening range is a useful tool, I strongly suggest to read Mark Fisher's "logical trader" and Toby Crabel's day trading book.
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Mark Fisher the commodities trader on water street downtown manhattan?
 
i use a 1 minute and a 5 minute chart.. but i do not use just the charts.. i write down ..whats going on in the world and the economy.. and i say .. ok what is worst case scenario and what are ramifications.. what is best casse scenario and what are ramifications.. then I say.. If i was a long term trader.. a mutual fund or insurance company.. where would I start to buy or sell this stock or commodity.. and why.. what is my risk etc.

Then when the outcome comes out i already know what I think about it and I can react rather than think about what to do.. I am reacting because I already thought out scenarios on paper .. rather than watching the chart to see what the mkt does then making my decision.. I am wrong at times of course.. but for the most part this helps keep me on the correct side of the market.

If you went to my IM today you saw that i said .. after teh fed which won't raise rates .. then buy buy buy the dip dips dips...

Now what do you think about

1. Uptick rule reinstated= bullish
uptick rule not reinstated= maybe a quick mild sell off of thsoe who were betting strictly that it would get re-instated.. so they think mkt will tank.. they sell out cuz they don't expect a huge rally.. then buyers step in and push mkt hihger because teh thought is == wow the government is actually going to let this free market work properly.. thats positive and im buying..

2. AIG fall out

3. Fed emergency rate cut

4. oil price

5. anythign else you can think of that has potential to move teh market

6. a terrorist attack of small proportions

7. finding bin ladin=very bullish

8. Obama= president bullish.. ? Bearish?

For Tomorrow it is oil report.... if reduction in supply.. bullish .. if increase.. very bearish .. but how much mkt has already fallen

AGAIN this is just so that you can trade immediately .. instead of seeing what happens and then trading. You make a bet and stick with it based on your parameters. I also look at daily charts.. and try and guess what todays day (bar) will look like.. is it inside outside bar or nice higher low and higher high trend bar.
 
Quote from NihabaAshi:

Maybe he knows there are different definitions and was curious what your particular definition may be. :cool:

Mark
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Thank you, NihabaAshi. That's what I meant.

Trackstar, what I was saying was that I know what swing high or low looks like, but you really do need a point of reference to determine if it's the first, second, or third swing high.

For example, one of the ET posters that posts very clear explanations, Stealth Trader, mentions that it takes three swing highs for him to determine the trend. BUT you have to start with a reference point. Is it the third swing of the day? The last twenty four hours? The last five minutes?

Since this thread is only about daytrading and determining the trend, would you say you should only long at the swings starting from the opening bell?
 
Quote from vingbel:

Thank you, NihabaAshi. That's what I meant.

Trackstar, what I was saying was that I know what swing high or low looks like, but you really do need a point of reference to determine if it's the first, second, or third swing high.

For example, one of the ET posters that posts very clear explanations, Stealth Trader, mentions that it takes three swing highs for him to determine the trend. BUT you have to start with a reference point. Is it the third swing of the day? The last twenty four hours? The last five minutes?

Since this thread is only about daytrading and determining the trend, would you say you should only long at the swings starting from the opening bell?
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I trade currencies and it starts whenever I sit down at my computer.

:p

No really though whatever trend is already in place is what you follow. until 2 opposing HH and HL are in place you continue shorting or vice versa.
 
Quote from trackstar:

I trade currencies and it starts whenever I sit down at my computer.

:p

No really though whatever trend is already in place is what you follow. until 2 opposing HH and HL are in place you continue shorting or vice versa.
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I loved that answer! Sometimes I wonder if I can just start from exactly where I tune in for the day!

Okay, back to the business. So, how far back do you go to decide what trend you're entering? Or what trend you're seeing a change in?

I'm getting that most daytraders look at the last few days. I believe Stealth Trader says, he really just looks at exactly where he is and the very recent history. That's kind of like "it starts whenever I sit down at my computer" in a odd kind of way.
 
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