determine trend?

[PitchBlack]

Quote from markbrown:

i know people who make money trend trading - many - but none that have a high percent of winners. could you say how many trades average you make per market per year? that will tell alot. i mean its not like i am trying to steal anything from you.

mark brown

think of this if i set today and flip 500 flips of a coin and stop and 80% were heads - that's what your stats are to me as a researcher who test systems on 20,000 trades not 500.

are your stats based on actually trading? that would be awesome if it were good trading, stay doing what your doing. it would be real interesting to follow a live call of the beginning of your trend cause most trends ar identifiable after the fact.

i am now wondering what your trend is - heck maybe im a trend trader. no dont think so because i trade long when the market is going short. i do just the opposite of what the price action is doing. so what is your trend?

I posted more than 1000 postings on ET. The logic behind the system has been explained completely, so i will not do that over again.
I daytrade since 1990, first forex and afterwards futures.
First stats were based on testing, afterwards on real trading. Real trading results are approaching the hypothetical results of backtesting (which was not the case in the first years).
System performs well in stocks, forex and futures.

There is trend following and trend following. Trading on simple MA's can be called trend following and trading a sophisticated daytrading system on trends is called trend following too. But there is a world of difference between the two.
99% op the people talk about the MA kind of systems, i talk about the second type.

I first reacted because of the stereotypical answers that always come back. I learned in the years that our conclusions are based
on the knowledge that is available. This means that our conclusions can be wrong.
100 years ago you would be a lunatic if you would say that man could be walking on the moon; now we know better. Conclusions evoluate with the progress of knowledge. The same applies to trading and tradingsystems.
My knowlegde of daytrading and trendfollowing is different from what is generally accepted, and that's why many things that are posted on ET sound as unlogical to me. And the best of all is that i can prove it with real results if i want. But due to the bashings i stopped posting because i do not need posting to be happy nor to be succesful.
I still keep contact with a few posters (by PM) because they are open minded and able to accept discussions on things that are considered as difficult if not impossible to achieve. I don't think anyone of them has regrets of being open minded. We all learned alot from each other. Most of them improved their tradingresults to above the average trader.
This kind of things can never be achieve on a forum because of disturbing factors.

One of the questions we talke about is: can you consistently make 100% a week?
We do not simple answer by yes or no, but we know that our answer will be classified as ridiculuous, so we don't discuss it anymore in open. We always backup our answers by proof, we do not daydream. We daytrade.

 

[PitchBlack]

Quote from kiwi_trader:

Easily. You weight the coin so that 80% of the time it falls on the side you profit from.

This proofs the difference between coin flipping and trading.
In coin flipping it is useless to weight the coin, because the weight will always be the same. In trading this is different.

Those who say trading is coin flipping are gamblers; those who say trading is different, might become good traders. Trading has nothing to do with gambling.

 

[kiwi_trader]

Actually trading and gambling are close to identical in many respects. Same statistics, differences for particular games but one could create a horse race where the bets were placed at times other than the start and judged at times other than the finish. Can you get an edge?

The question in gambling is ... professional or gambler?

The question in trading is ... professional or gambler?

 

[Charly]

>>I posted more than 1000 postings on ET. The logic behind the system has been explained completely, so i will not do that over again.
I daytrade since 1990, first forex and afterwards futures.
First stats were based on testing, afterwards on real trading. Real trading results are approaching the hypothetical results of backtesting (which was not the case in the first years).
System performs well in stocks, forex and futures.<<

Spike
I would not repeat it either however, a
hint where approximately you discussed
the logic of your system would be appreciated, indeed ---> 1000 pages+.

Thank you
Charly

 

[PitchBlack]

Quote from Charly:

>>I posted more than 1000 postings on ET. The logic behind the system has been explained completely, so i will not do that over again.
I daytrade since 1990, first forex and afterwards futures.
First stats were based on testing, afterwards on real trading. Real trading results are approaching the hypothetical results of backtesting (which was not the case in the first years).
System performs well in stocks, forex and futures.<<

Spike
I would not repeat it either however, a
hint where approximately you discussed
the logic of your system would be appreciated, indeed ---> 1000 pages+.

Thank you
Charly

I checked in my PM's and someone told me he read my first 800 postings and found the full explanation (for as far as i agreed to share what i know). Unfortunatelly i cannot remember when i posted the most important things, which means that i would have to reread my own 800 postings again. But i'm lazy and already know how the system works, so no need for me to read it again.

The question is: is it worth the effort to you to read them yourselve? You will know the answer after reading the postings.

 

[PitchBlack]

Probably interesting:

http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=781685&highlight=decisiontable#post781685

 

[ProfLogic]

Quote from MarkBrown:

in fact i love trend traders just wouldn't want to be one. i know quite a few and i always welcome anyone who can contribute the the liquidity of the markets and take the other side of my trades. long live the trend trader!

see my chart art gallery at
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=89844

Mark Brown

It's understandable why you wouldn't want to be a trend trader if you can't strictly define a trend. Every chart is trending if you have enough data to read it.

Nice Art!

 

[ProfLogic]

Quote from kiwi_trader:

Note for mb: Trading with the trend (not following it to its exhaustion) doesn't imply high risk for those 80% trades; it implies (in my case anyway) reading the trends structure to find those situations with high probability of success and then using targets to take your success, except where the conditions very strongly push patient following. The key determinant of high % for me is being prepared not to take the even slightly weaker setups.

Wow, kiwi, well stated!

 

[Bingoking]

Quote from nidarian:

Absolutly. Markets always comes to me first before I let it go and fetch me some profits. Or I aint playing or feeding it treats.

Come here boy. Be good now! Fill. Good boy, now go fetch me some profits. Good boy!

There is your holy grail. You have all been using it on your dogs for years.

Well said. Works for me, too.

 

[Charly]

Quote from spike500:

I checked in my PM's and someone told me he read my first 800 postings and found the full explanation (for as far as i agreed to share what i know). Unfortunatelly i cannot remember when i posted the most important things, which means that i would have to reread my own 800 postings again. But i'm lazy and already know how the system works, so no need for me to read it again.

The question is: is it worth the effort to you to read them yourselve? You will know the answer after reading the postings.

Spike
thanks for the answer - you homeless
F1 freak.
You had your F1 pleasure today I suppose.
I'll try to get on with those ancient (lol)
postings.

Charly