determine trend?

[jem]

Quote from marketsurfer:

how many moves ( price/time segments) in one direction increase the probability that the next move or series of same will be in the same direction? this should be the primary question asked by those looking to trend trade, however, for some reason, this question befuddles the trend traders. regards, surf

I have to wonder surf why you keep asking the same question. Apparently your friend who likes to count only wishes to quantify the trend in this manner.

Many of us quantify trend in a different manner and would look for certain types of trends.

attempting to quantify a trend in such a binary manner seems to be a fools errand.

And if your friend is not a fool he must be some sort of self promoting egotistical crumudgeon wanting all the freshman in his stats 101 class to think he knows something.

What idiot with a spreadsheet couldn't pound that inefficiency to pieces in a couple trades? Todays markets require a little bit more effort. and if I wereaware a true market inefficiency why would I tell you.

 

[Bearbelly]

Thanks for the link Prof. I think I have read that thead but I will go through it again.


Hypo, both Jack and Mak speak highly of Prof. Leave no stone unturned is my motto.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from jem:

I have to wonder surf why you keep asking the same question. Apparently your friend who likes to count only wishes to quantify the trend in this manner.

Many of us quantify trend in a different manner and would look for certain types of trends.

.

with all due respect, jem,

if the wrong statistical tests are used, please, which ones do you suggest? the finest trend traders with the most capital in history cant find the trend--although it sure looks clear in hindsight. what do you know that they don't? there is billions waiting for anyone who can crack the code and actually do it consistently.

The same basic question is asked since no one in the trend community has been able to answer it. So, based on your post, please let me know how you quantify trend and the different types of trend,referenced by you. I would hope that the quantification method is testable so that it can be utilized outside of academics. simply, what criteria needs to be met that will increase the odds that the next move/series of same will be in the same direction--( the definition of trend) thanks, surf

ps. if you flip a coin, graph the results, and it comes up heads 10 times in a row, is this a heads trend??

 

[jem]

Let me ask you stupid question as well.

Since I know you like Connor's type stuff.

If the adx is up and the 10period di plus is over 30 and then the stock high closes below the 5 period moving average would you buy it if took out yesterdays high?

What if you had slightly better filters?

Now do you think there might be a liquidity problem for a billion dollar position seeker?

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from jem:

Let me ask you stupid question as well.

Since I know you like Connor's type stuff.

If the adx is up and the 10period di plus is over 30 and then the stock high closes below the 5 period moving average would you buy it if took out yesterdays high?

What if you had slightly better filters?

Now do you think there might be a liquidity problem for a billion dollar position seeker?

i like connors, not all his material. can you answer my post without another question? regards, surf

 

[jem]

Quote from marketsurfer:

i like connors, not all his material. can you answer my post without another question? regards, surf

Well now you know another trend qualiification system.

When you can rule out every variation of those - I have others.

When you can rule them all out you can say trends don't exist.

 

[murray t turtle]

Quote from maildigger:

What is your way to determine an (intraday) trend?

========================
Good trend question;
several things, including daily trends, which tend to show up intraday.

Open price;
& yesterdays close, among other closes....

 

[kiwi_trader]

Quote from maildigger:

What is your way to determine an (intraday) trend?

Put a couple of emas or smas on the chart and mess around with their values until they seem to represent minor and major retracements in the trend on that time scale chart.

Trade only in the direction of the trend


You could no doubt substitute t3s and a variety of other types of moving mean measurement but, as Forest's mum said, simple is best.

 

[MarkBrown]

"Maybe markets appear to have a directional bias. But really they do not, all markets are in a transition to surprising the person who thinks he has the direction figured out."

Mark Brown

 

[ProfLogic]

Quote from markbrown:

"Maybe markets appear to have a directional bias. But really they do not, all markets are in a transition to surprising the person who thinks he has the direction figured out."

Mark Brown

. . . and then again . . . maybe they do.