I am not knocking the idea, but you lose $630 per above 105 at SepEx. Your BE at exp is 98.7.
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I am not knocking the idea, but you lose $630 per above 105 at SepEx. Your BE at exp is 98.7.
At 111 you'll be down about $380/contract tomorrow.
If the trade bought the $105 call as insurance?
Assume these #'s are right.
$90 put+call = $12.50
$80 put is $2
$105 call is $2
Sell the straddle and buy the $80P/$105C
You have an $8.50 credit.
Stock goes to $110.
You're down $15 (+extrinsic) on the short call, but you're up $5 (plus extrinsic) on the $105 long call.
8.50-15+5= -1.50
Right?
You're in a 15 wide (upside) fly. You received 8.5 for it. 15 (strike width) less credit (8.5) equals terminal risk. The vol-crush after earnings actually hurts the position when spot is outside the wings.
Mkt closed at an 8.7 credit on what is essentially a long natural fly. Into the risk here you're looking at body strike (90) plus the net credit on the 4-way (8.7). The individuals don't matter here. I am pricing your fly at an 8.7cr which is a bit better than when you were pricing it.
90 + 8.7 = 98.7, terminal break-even.
Your "fills": 90 + (12.5 - 4) = 98.5 terminal break-even. (PEMDAS ppl!).
So yeah, vols are going to implode for Sep, but you don't want that when spot is trading outside your wings. It will exacerbate the losses tomorrow. I am eyeballing 3.8 loss at the open, but I haven't stressed it.
I'm totally with you on this. The idea, when I made the post, was predicated on my belief that the stock would peg $90 +/- $3 today. Which leads to.... and I'm embarrassed to say this but I will, as I was looking at those strikes, I didn't notice they weren't weeklies. IE, I thought they exp today. Yeah I know...
But hey, at least I admit my f/u which is more than a lot of people do here. I truly am embarrassed for missing that "little detail".That AFRM up 33% today. Super manipulate.I'm totally with you on this. The idea, when I made the post, was predicated on my belief that the stock would peg $90 +/- $3 today. Which leads to.... and I'm embarrassed to say this but I will, as I was looking at those strikes, I didn't notice they weren't weeklies. IE, I thought they exp today. Yeah I know...
No, AFRM option expiry is Sep 17, not today.
I have $3MM (PM haircut) in AMZN overwrites. I am long from 3462 and short tenors out to March 21. Avg vol-sale of 25%. Synthetic out to March is 3522. I am long D in the synthetic straddles (1x2) at 3700-4500 strikes. Short calls against spot.
It's a (relatively) new position and I am neutral to 3820. Some of the higher strikes are ratio-ed 1x3. So I am generally bullish on AMZN, but being paid to hold.
It's a (relatively) new position and I am neutral to 3820. Some of the higher strikes are ratio-ed 1x3. So I am generally bullish on AMZN, but being paid to hold.
Yeah, I like AMZN a lot. I am rolling VIX futures long now that we're only seeing a small contango. I have maybe $200K to give up on hedging out to March. Their hiring and forward look is bullish but I think it's a nod to antitrust... don't fuck with a co hiring 500K people over 3Y.
I don't want to hear from GOPtards when the shares drop 100 on Q-numbers or whatever. I earn from 2800-4200 out to March, terminally. This excludes vol-futures, NQ hedging or the small bear-verts that I own on the short dated stuff.
I don't want to hear from GOPtards when the shares drop 100 on Q-numbers or whatever. I earn from 2800-4200 out to March, terminally. This excludes vol-futures, NQ hedging or the small bear-verts that I own on the short dated stuff.
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