dest's discord group--tickers, structuring and pnl

[BlueWaterSailor]

Yeah, I was 170 at his age so he takes after the wife's family in terms of "lean-ness" and light bones.

God, you lucky fuckers. I'm totally jealous.

I've been fighting weight gain all my life, and never done any better than barely a draw. I'd give anything to be in a position where I need to slam down a burger and a shake just to keep up with maintenance.

Good that he's getting some muscle on that frame. The girls will go nuts.

 

[destriero]

God, you lucky fuckers. I'm totally jealous.

I've been fighting weight gain all my life, and never done any better than barely a draw. I'd give anything to be in a position where I need to slam down a burger and a shake just to keep up with maintenance.

Good that he's getting some muscle on that frame. The girls will go nuts.

He doesn't like the beach pic bc he thinks it's a funny expression and his older Bro won't be seen in pics, although they look like twins to scale. Both are overachievers.

 

[speedo]

The top 5 NCAA Division 1 rowing schools:

Princeton
Harvard
Yale
Columbia
U. of Penn



Edit.... actually hard to go wrong with any of them. I prefer Ivy however.
https://www.ncsasports.org/best-colleges/best-mens-rowing-colleges

Those you listed are all Ivy.

 

[vanzandt]

Those you listed are all Ivy.

Well no duh lol...!!!

I posted the link as an edit because there were a few CA schools in there. All good schools. Dest's kid needs to hit the East Coast though. Get away from dad.

 

[deltaf0rce]

1) No.

2) Yes, in the sense that you cannot blindly go long or short vol through a report. I tend to favor diagonals and calendars with a pre-post tenor (short non-reporting period) for synthetic time--vol has to rally as we approach the report. The vol-diff on the switch (Jun v Jul vols) makes gamma the overwhelming factor, but you can't lose on vol. You cannot trade it √time vega due to gamma and the net vol on the switch. IOW, stick to 1x1.

Positions taken and held into the report generally are short wings into a vol-line as there is essentially zero speed on the wings. You're betting realized variance as implied will drop to pre-report levels. At a certain point the mkt is paying you to ignore the news, i.e., shares at 350 and the 280/300/400/420 outside is trading $13 credit and equating to an 85 vol with post-report vol at 40. What's to lose? You're being paid 2/1 to sell the news.

You don’t have to answer this, I enjoy reading this thread and deducing from it, but if anyone is willing to chime in, would be appreciated

condor as being described above, my interpretation of this quote is as following:
Earnings season- DJX IV 30 - am I Selling August put condors, 30/35 85/90? ~28.25 IV, Credit $4; Risk is almost nothing at expiration? Thanks

Edit: assumptions are wrong. The r:r on this is 4x but there is certainly loss potential. The July is most forgiving and razor thin loss potential. I’m too noob to know why but working on it

 

[shh]

You don’t have to answer this, I enjoy reading this thread and deducing from it, but if anyone is willing to chime in, would be appreciated

condor as being described above, my interpretation of this quote is as following:
Earnings season- DJX IV 30 - am I Selling August put condors, 30/35 85/90? ~28.25 IV, Credit $4; Risk is almost nothing at expiration? Thanks

Edit: assumptions are wrong. The r:r on this is 4x but there is certainly loss potential. The July is most forgiving and razor thin loss potential. I’m too noob to know why but working on it

If pre-earning IV is at double the normal levels, your 1 std-dev IC should be safe. Sure the underlying can move to the wings (I think we technically call them terminals), but so much IV will collapse, that regardless your structure will survive or even make money.

 

[destriero]

Those you listed are all Ivy.

Neither will have any problems there. Oldest is at W&L and could transfer anywhere; Stanford, H, etc. Youngest got a 28 on ACT but will take it again. Same score as his brother's first time. SAT comparable but younger hasn't taken it yet.

 

[destriero]

You don’t have to answer this, I enjoy reading this thread and deducing from it, but if anyone is willing to chime in, would be appreciated

condor as being described above, my interpretation of this quote is as following:
Earnings season- DJX IV 30 - am I Selling August put condors, 30/35 85/90? ~28.25 IV, Credit $4; Risk is almost nothing at expiration? Thanks

Edit: assumptions are wrong. The r:r on this is 4x but there is certainly loss potential. The July is most forgiving and razor thin loss potential. I’m too noob to know why but working on it

DJX? 230/235/285/290P?

1) Don't trade deep ITM naturals. It makes no sense to trade DITM legs. There is no turnover in the deep stuff. Trade irons (synthetic). Always trade OTM when possible.

2) You're only risking a buck, but the mkt has to move 3K Dow to for the max terminal payoff in a month. Price the position ATM (205/210/260/265) to stress Day1 valuation at flat vols. You're not going to like it. It's $2. Nice, but there are better structures to achieve a triple.

I don't dislike the position, but why Aug? You think it's possible that the Dow melts-up 3K points in the next month? Better stuff on the downside if it's a crash scenario. I wouldn't pay 28 vol for a condor payoff here.

3) Trade fewer contracts, wider strikes. Comms aren't really the issue but discrete strikes are not going to produce the gains (you think they will).

 

[destriero]

Neither will have any problems there. Oldest is at W&L and could transfer anywhere; Stanford, H, etc. Youngest got a 33 on ACT but will take it again. Same score as his brother. SAT comparable but younger hasn't taken it yet.

Youngest (son) is taking a gap year to live in downtown Stockholm and travel throughout the EU, mainly Scandinavia, providing that travel is allowed. His cousin did it last year (her junior year) while attending Lund U as a Northwestern study abroad student. She graduated summa last month.

 

[destriero]

You don’t have to answer this, I enjoy reading this thread and deducing from it, but if anyone is willing to chime in, would be appreciated

condor as being described above, my interpretation of this quote is as following:
Earnings season- DJX IV 30 - am I Selling August put condors, 30/35 85/90? ~28.25 IV, Credit $4; Risk is almost nothing at expiration? Thanks

Edit: assumptions are wrong. The r:r on this is 4x but there is certainly loss potential. The July is most forgiving and razor thin loss potential. I’m too noob to know why but working on it

Trade half as many and you have a triple on the ATM stress and will own Sep vola as Aug goes off. This is a day1 stress. Tenors are not equal (40 v. 68 days). You don't have weeklies with DJX but you can still vert it off when Aug goes off the board (fly; asym-fly; asym-condor).

Stress on single 220P is $0.9 loss at static px & vol. So risk is comparable to the condor with large vol-gains possible. Diag can be worth more than strike diff.