Dest Jr's little trade journal.

Flat positions. He covered the GOOGL bull vert (hedge) near the open. Inverted on GOOGL so the fly is gone. I think he should have held TSLA, but he sent me an SMS that he's going flat until lunch break.

+$316 from inception. +2.1%

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He's likely done for the day. I'd imagine that he's largely done for the week unless he gets spooked out of this AAPL position.

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6:49: Dumped the GOOGL call vert (hedge) as shares were set to invert the body strike on his fly.

7:10 Closed TSLA calendar near the LOD on shares. GREAT CALL. He didn't listen to me and now we're at $297.

7:13: Had to chase GOOGL as shares inverted body strike. 6 cxls; finally filled.

7:24: 5(?!) AAPL ICs to open a position from 1.99. He tried to get 2.00 but feared it would trade neutral and he'd fill at 1.96 or below. Too much size, IMO. SMS says he's looking to buy back at 1.10 by Friday close.

7:26: Bought the AAPL vert (hedge) and covered on the trade below 20 on shares.

He's got a grand to risk (hard-limit of $5K), so my guess is that he won't open anything other than a possible AAPL hedge, but I think he'll stay pat here.

DJ is up $283 marked.
 
AAPL condor marked $50 in his favor. He's getting a bit of a rep at school. One kid wanted to give him a grand to piggyback his trades. I told him he cannot solicit. Teens are degen gamblers. They'd want in regardless of PNL.
 
Rosenblatt Securities analyst Jun Zhang wrote Monday that he gauges preorders for the iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max to be "weaker compared to iPhone X preorders" a year earlier. He estimates that 10 million iPhone XS and XS Max preorders were placed during the first three days they were available, based on his examination of wait times and his projected weekly production volume from manufacturers. He expects that Apple Inc. (AAPL) will produce 35 million to 36 million of the two devices in the September and December quarters combined, whereas he believes the company produced 36 million iPhone X models a year ago. He has a buy rating and a $200 price target on the stock.

He had this news before I did...
 
dest, this is an interesting journal, thanks for running it. Found myself wondering how defined your son's trading strategy is.

Has he developed a general sense of market behavior which he uses to intuit broad hypothesis and then finds a structure to express them while staying within risk limits? Such as vol is currently rich here; expect XYZ to trade around a certain range for a certain time; etc?

Or is it more pattern and data driven where he has been given or constructed some sort of model that informs decisions based off statistics. Realize it's probably not as simple as an either /or, but do you have any observations about the rationale behind his executions?
 
Magic said:
dest, this is an interesting journal, thanks for running it. Found myself wondering how defined your son's trading strategy is.

Has he developed a general sense of market behavior which he uses to intuit broad hypothesis and then finds a structure to express them while staying within risk limits? Such as vol is currently rich here; expect XYZ to trade around a certain range for a certain time; etc?

Or is it more pattern and data driven where he has been given or constructed some sort of model that informs decisions based off statistics. Realize it's probably not as simple as an either /or, but do you have any observations about the rationale behind his executions?
More...


The former: TSLA bearish. He will cover when he's up (materially) better than his delta pos and/or vega position would indicate. He was looking to short TSLA on any bounce after the CAO left. He spent some time on it, but obviously should have been bigger (three lot).

The latter: Opening the AAPL trade on the sell-side data moving the needle on vol.

He's news/event driven unless he can't source anything... then he'll look for index entries based upon breadth. He stresses everything on time and price.
 
I just put on 10 ES 2880 put calendar using 7/11 days to expiration (yeah weeklies basically) @ 5.50.
ES right now @ 2892. Looking for touch or move to 2880-ish. Maybe little B can offer his analysis haha.
 
DJ bought a 20/25/27 132 call fly inside the condor yesterday. I don't have the fill as I'd not logged into the account until this morning:

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DJ's account is up $350 marked. +2.3% from inception. Jr closed one of the ICs and the embedded 132 fly. Sitting with four of the condors from 1.81 marked.
 
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