Designing an Automated Trading Program
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Target hit at 126.66. I'm trading profitably, but only at a 70% success rate. It was because I was using the intraday moving averages on some of my trades. I've now learned to make exclusive use of the immediate moving averages only for deciding when to enter positions. Ultimately I should not be trading at anything less than 85%.
CADJPY, GBPJPY, USDCHF, and USDJPY all look ready or just about ready to resume a northbound trajectory.
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This pair might have initiated its descent @ 1.1380. I will have to watch and see what happens during the next hour. I'm now long USDPY at approximately 111.11.
Even from the perspective of a four-hour chart, there was reason to suspect that this forecast might be premature. In analyzing why the USDJPY trade was not successful, an evaluation of the one-hour (60-minute) setup clarified why the trade was not logical in the first place (from the beginning) and that the feature on the four-chart that hinted at this fact must be assigned greater significance.
I added the blue moving average (in the graphics on the left-hand side) to the lower timeframe chart in that giving consideration to this particular indicator when I was considering buying one of the yen pairs would have alerted me to the fact that this was ill advised (since the rate was not likely to continue heading higher for a protracted period of time).
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So, learning how to use the MQL5 Wizard for creating expert advisors would probably not be the best use of my time presently since, according to the information I found online, OANDA does not currently offer the MT5 platform (and OANDA is my Forex broker).
If my understanding is correct, then some of the factors I need to consider if seeking someone else to code the advisor for me are:
If my understanding is correct, then some of the factors I need to consider if seeking someone else to code the advisor for me are:
- What do I want to use as trading signals and what will the input parameters be?
- Exactly what will trigger the opening of positions? (What will be the open position conditions?)
- What will be the close position conditions?
- How are lot sizes to be calculated? (Will risk levels be taken into consideration?)
- Will code for calculating optimal lot size need to be included?
- What is the significance of the section of code associated with position selected depending on netting or hedging?
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Don't want to be the one to burst your bubble but you've already made a bunch of critical mistakes.
1. Trading demo - zero slippage, zero commission, zero anything
2. Sample size of 9 - Meaningless
3. No backtesting
4. No walk-forward testing
5. No risk analysis/ruin analysis
It's possible you are seeing a good run. You have no idea historically what this thing looks like. You have no Sharpe Ratio, Max DD%, Annual Return, or really any risk metrics. You don't know what your total exposure is. You don't know your beta to a market standard.
What you've built is a robot that got 9 guesses right. I did get a good chuckle out of the "100% success rate" remark though. Classic. Paired with all the big words you dish out I legitimately can't wait to see your book. LOL.
I have shorted EURPY @ 126.540 based on 50% of a 4-hour chart setup. Half of the setup is structured for the trade (the more immediate signals) and half of the setup is not. EURAUD looks to be pretty much in the same situation. I expect to see it fall from 1.6244, at least in the short run.
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