‘Burning through the population’: Delta fuels Florida’s worst COVID wave
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article253297163.html
In a matter of weeks, the highly contagious delta variant of the virus that causes COVID-19 has fueled the worst spike in new infections since the pandemic began in March 2020, according to an el Nuevo Herald analysis of state-level data.
Florida’s COVID-related hospitalizations have broken daily records for
10 days in a row, according to data published
daily by the United States Department of Health and Human Services, with many hospital administrators moving to cancel
elective procedures in order to save space and ensure staff and resources are available to care for the flood of new patients. The state has also shattered single-day records for new cases four times in past two weeks.
Unlike the past surges of COVID-19 cases, where the elderly made up the majority of severe cases, this new wave is increasingly affecting younger populations as well. In terms of the number of children hospitalized with COVID-19, Florida has ranked among the two worst states in the nation and hospitals have been sounding alarms.
“This delta variant is burning through the population,” said Jason Salemi, an epidemiologist at the University of South Florida who has tracked the state’s COVID data since the beginning of the pandemic. “It’s infecting a lot of people very, very rapidly.”
Salemi also attributes this dramatic increase in cases to high numbers of individuals in Florida not being protected through vaccination (around eight million who are eligible), relaxation of measures that lower the likelihood of transmissibility, the summer heat driving people indoors and tourists.
New cases increased almost eightfold during the month of July and have more than doubled in the past three weeks, according to a Herald analysis using seven-day rolling averages of daily Florida Department of Health (DOH) case data published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
‘There’s a lot of unknown’
The CDC tracks
more than 18 lineages of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States, with the delta variant making up more than 85% of samples the agency sequenced during the last two weeks of July. Variants may carry mutations that make a virus more contagious or cause more severe symptoms or that evade the effectiveness of therapies and vaccines.
Data collected over a four-week period and published by the CDC suggest that through July 17, out of almost 4,000 positive tests collected in Florida sequenced, 65% were delta. Sequencing refers to studying a virus as it changes.
Recent studies also suggest that the delta variant is now the leading cause of infections in Miami-Dade County, making up more than 90% of infections among patients hospitalized at Jackson Health System and the University of Miami Health System, according to UM researchers and doctors tracking mutations of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19.
Dr. David Andrews, a pathologist and UM professor leading the effort to sequence the virus in Miami-Dade, said the rapid takeover of the delta variant as the predominant strain circulating in South Florida is a hallmark of its increased contagiousness.
Andrews said scientists with the CDC and other health agencies around the world have been trying to measure just how contagious the delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 is, with some comparing the ease of spread to chicken pox.
DOH has never published information on variants, but under threat of a lawsuit from the Herald and a consortium of other news organizations, DOH now shares data on variants once a month.
That data, Salemi says, is problematic because it doesn’t provide enough context to understand how prevalent any one strain is at any given time, since the data do not state when the samples were sequenced or how many of them went through the sequencing process.
What is clear from CDC data is that delta is the dominant COVID strain in Florida and across the United States.
“The degree of contagiousness and rate of transmission for the delta variant is completely off the charts compared to all the previous variants,” Andrews said. “It is absolutely unprecedented.”
Mary Jo Trepka, an epidemiologist and professor at Florida International University, says that while the high case counts of the current wave are comparable to the surge in January, that prior wave was driven primarily by a rise in test volumes from people preparing for the holidays.
But last month saw a 670% increase in Florida’s seven-day rolling average of new cases from July 1 until the 31st, according to DOH data published by the CDC and analyzed by the Herald. During that same time, tests performed, as reported by the CDC, saw only a 118% increase in its seven-day rolling average, indicating the increase in new cases cannot be explained by an uptick in testing alone.
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