DeSantis for the win

[Nine_Ender]

GWB does not understand the idea of community immunity.
He does not understand the idea that for the low risk group this is the flu.
He does not understand that if you let the low risk group build immunity
you are actually protecting your people far better than lockdowns of the low risk.


He would rather everyone else following the leftist politicians and be fearful idiots...
than look at the data and do the smart thing.

How many times has he predicted the end of Sweden... the end of Texas... the end of Florida...
He has been wrong about almost everything... everyday.

We do need to note that your B. of Arts has given you no real credentials to do proper data analysis or any medical opinions on a virus. Chime in if you have any real credentials in either area.

 

[gwb-trading]

When I go to Florida’s covid website they show 47 deaths today. So I fail to see where these extra deaths are coming from, 100+. Where do you find that?

Unless they are padding stats after the fact.

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/d2726d6c01c4486181fec2d4373b01fa

Edit. when I go to Florida’s health dept website their death by date of death chart is much lower. So I see where deaths are being added but looking back dates from a week or two ago seem unchanged. 9/11. 62 same on both charts. The dates that are changing totals are close to the current date.

So it would seem that after a couple of weeks the death counts are fairly accurate.

https://floridahealthcovid19.gov/

Florida reported 48 resident deaths today according to the media. As note in the press - https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article246392290.html
Don't know why the portal says 47.

These are the deaths that were reported today --- they are not allocated by date of death yet for the most part.

There is a complete difference in Florida of the date the death was reported and the date the death occurred.

I agree that the majority of updates to the date of death information occurs in the first two weeks. .... but the data updates on date of death have been delayed up to 8 weeks in Florida at times.

Note the reported deaths on a particular date will normally not match the date of death data. The reported deaths on a date in Florida normally will comprise of deaths that occurred yesterday, the day before, two days back, etc. -- the reported number on a date does not represent that the deaths occurred on that particular date.

 

[Wallet]

Florida reported 48 resident deaths today according to the media. As note in the press - https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article246392290.html
Don't know why the portal says 47.

These are the deaths that were reported today --- they are not allocated by date of death yet for the most part.

There is a complete difference in Florida of the date the death was reported and the date the death occurred.

I agree that the majority of updates to the date of death information occurs in the first two weeks. .... but the data updates on date of death have been delayed up to 8 weeks in Florida at times.

Note the reported deaths on a particular date will normally not match the date of death data. The reported deaths on a date in Florida normally will comprise of deaths that occurred yesterday, the day before, two days back, etc. -- the reported number on a date does not represent that the deaths occurred on that particular date.

That may be the case, but it appears that the majority of death dates are determined fairly quickly, within a week or so. Going back past that the totals are definitely in a down trend, and well below +100 avg per day. Any additional updates are very unlikely to change that.

 

[Tsing Tao]

You quoted my earlier post:

"You can easily go to the DeSantis Florida COVID dashboard and take a look at "Resident Deaths by Date of Death" chart and see that the number is already over 1500 for the past 30 days."

Let's walk through the math.... Here is the raw data for the past 30 days from Sept 28th by date of death.

8/30 78
8/31 91
9/1 92
9/2 83
9/3 81
9/4 92
9/5 83
9/6 87
9/7 75
9/8 67
-------
9/9 80
9/10 61
9/11 64
9/12 42
9/13 53
9/14 61
9/15 56
9/16 51
9/17 44
9/18 45
9/19 43
9/20 37
9/21 49
9/22 52
9/23 47
9/24 29
9/25 38
9/26 35
9/27 27
9/28 25

The total over the 30 day period is 1,738 --- easily greater than 1,500

and the allocation of all the reported deaths to the dates has not even been completed yet so the total will likely go up.

This wasn't the discussion or the metric. I quoted your entire post, but the conversation was never about 30 days - that was you moving the goal posts. The conversation was about UsualName's claim that deaths for the last 20 days was 2000 - a patently false declaration and one you supported.

 

[Tsing Tao]

Obviously you don't teach statistics or math... because you don't understand that 1,738 is greater than 1,500.

Again, this is you moving the goalposts. 1500 and 30 days was not the point of the discussion. 2000 and 20 days was the claim. I can post the entire thread portion again if you wish, but i suspect you're just doing your usual tango to avoid looking like the idiot you clearly are.

Nor do you understand that when a state is reporting over 100 deaths per day on average --- when the deaths are allocated to dates several weeks later than the totals for reported deaths and the daily deaths better match or something is not correct with the math. Did some of the reported dead magically undie and come back from the death when they are not allocated to a date?

Again, the 100 days per average is the reported number. This is not the metric we were discussing. We were discussing deaths by date of death and that is not currently at 100 a day.

Eventually the averages for reported deaths and deaths by date will align -- if a state has been consistently reporting over 100 deaths per day then when the deaths get allocated by date weeks later then the average of deaths by date over any 20 day span is likely statistically to be over 2000. That's how math works.

You are assuming a constant rate that never declines. That's not how reality works.

 

[Tsing Tao]

Then the data as shown is deemed correct until corrected. You’re assuming.

Everything he does is an assumption. Many of which fail spectacularly. That's what makes this so funny.

 

[Tsing Tao]

For posterity.

I wish I didn't have to do this, but when you're trying to discuss something with someone so disingenuous and always moving the goal posts, you have to make sure everything is spelled out specifically. Otherwise, the weasel does what weasels do. This is a complete list of the whole conversation regarding the 2000/20 days and the supposed 1500/30 days claim. You will also notice how he has stopped defending the 600 per day claim, that one is totally indefensible even for someone as desperate as he. But he'll never admit defeat, just go silent.

What started the conversation on this topic:

Am I reading this right, are you really claiming 2,000 deaths in 20 days is “great numbers?”

What is wrong with you? Did your momma drop you on your head as a baby or something?

Please note the claim. 2000 deaths in 20 days, made on September 28. My initial response to UsualName:

Those 2000 deaths did not occur in 20 days. That was when they were reported.

Then, Palooka (GWB) inserts himself into the conversation because he can't help himself. Emphasis on his quote my own.

You can easily go to the DeSantis Florida COVID dashboard and take a look at "Resident Deaths by Date of Death" chart and see that the number is already over 1500 for the past 30 days. And the past 3 weeks have not even been fully recorded yet. Even your governor's own COVID site shows that 2000 deaths over 20 days is likely when all the deaths by date are uploaded to the site -- which will not happen until three weeks from now due to the "significant delays" in recording deaths that the site warns you about.

My Full Response to GWB's quote:

View attachment 240414

At best, the last 20 days have had between 700-750 deaths. Even 1500 in 30 days still is not the 2000 deaths in the last 20 days. The point was that the number being quoted by Usualname about 2000 deaths in the last 20 days was false. Not surprising.

You can say what might be, and that's fine. But that wasn't the point. Stop making shit up.

Please note I specifically mention once again the 2000 deaths in 20 days. I do this continually because, as is always the case, GWB will try to weasel out and change the metric as his previous one doesn't work.

GWB again tries to bring the 30 day metric in.

We will go back after all the deaths for this time period are posted (which will be several weeks from now due to delays in Florida) --- and count the number of deaths by date in the 20 day and 30 days windows.

And I agree, we can go back and look - but specifically mention the 2000/20 metric again, because that is the one I am debating (and plan to go back to review). I also mention the possibility the metric will come to fruition. It is, after all, possible.

We can. And it is quite possible that this will be a correct statement at sometime in the future. But when it was made, referring to 2000 deaths that occurred already, the statement I made about reported was correct.

The professor tells me what we already know.

Keep in mind that all the deaths by date for the past 20 days has not been recorded yet. They will not be recorded until many weeks i n the future in Florida. Any chart you are displaying today is only showing a tiny fraction of the deaths by date in the past three weeks.

I let Professor Palooka know that I know this, and again remind him of the metric to check - the 2000/20 conversation, nothing else.

I am very much aware of this, gwb. I've stated this very thing several times before. Would you like me to look up the links in this very thread?

The point is - AGAIN - that UsualName is speaking of 2000 people having died in the last 20 days. Unless he has

A. Inside Information into data the State of Florida has yet to receive
B. Extra Sensory Perception allowing him to know the future
C. One hell of a Magic Eight Ball

He is speaking of deaths that have already been reported. Thus, these deaths would have been in the chart I posted. Since they are not, they did not all occur in the last 20 days. ERGO....I WAS CORRECT.

Where is Chris Wallace to moderate this?

GWB feels as if he has to tell me this is already likely (again) despite his dismal forecasting record. Also, at least he focuses on the 2000/20 metric.

Let's take a look at reality...

It is quite likely that 2000 people have died of COVID in the past 20 days in Florida --- this can be demonstrated when the final accounting is done in a few weeks time.

Or you can start going going through the county reported COVID data in Florida -- county by county to arrive at a figure sooner. Not waiting for the lengthy delay at the state level.

My update on October 5. Please note I also mention I did 21 days, same as when GWB felt he was correcting me yesterday - that's OK. 21 days gives the count an extra day, so should be in GWB's favor.

View attachment 240810

That count right now is about 833 (and I think I actually did 21 days).

Professor Palooka's response to this:

Yet all the data is not reported for three weeks. The current chart is meaningless.

.

Please note how he has said "Yet all the data is not reported for three weeks. " You can bet that if this number isn't hit after three weeks, he will try to move this goalpost as well out from three weeks.

My post from yesterday, updated 10/12.

Remember, the claim was that 2000 deaths had occurred in 20 days (from UsualName) on September 28. Putting aside his ability to see into the future (because this was just deaths reported, not the date they died), you then doubled down by saying the above:

1500 deaths in 30 days and the COVID dashboard showed 2000 deaths is likely. We're keeping a tally on this.

The time period is Sept 8 to Sept 28 (the 28th was when UsualName made the claim you backed up).

The total as of today???

996 Deaths on Date of Death


Ooooh...so close. What do we have for him, Johnny?

Game Show Voice: "Well, Tsing we've got a weekend free pass to the backyard when he can escape the self-quarantine that has been making him into the lunatic we all know and love!!" (crowd cheers) "Some hours in the sun and crisp autumn air will do him good..."

Don't worry, GWB. We'll check back again in a week to see if the number doubles and gets to the 2000 mark like you said it would. Don't lose hope! It still might.

Now, there might be some confusion for Professor Palooka reading this - and I can understand how he would want to find something - anything at all - to help him in the discussion, so I can see how he would leap to the mention of the 1500 in 30 days there, but the mention was showing how - based on the fact that he claimed 1500 in 30 days was going to happen, this meant that 2000 in 20 days was a forgone conclusion. But unfortunately that isn't what we bet on. We bet on the 2000/20 that has been mentioned all along. In desperation, he lowered the count and raised the day limit so he could get a number that actually might transpire. Sorry, Palooka. We're on to you.


Now, suddenly it's all about the 1500/30 metric.

You quoted my earlier post:

"You can easily go to the DeSantis Florida COVID dashboard and take a look at "Resident Deaths by Date of Death" chart and see that the number is already over 1500 for the past 30 days."

Let's walk through the math.... Here is the raw data for the past 30 days from Sept 28th by date of death.

8/30 78
8/31 91
9/1 92
9/2 83
9/3 81
9/4 92
9/5 83
9/6 87
9/7 75
9/8 67
-------
9/9 80
9/10 61
9/11 64
9/12 42
9/13 53
9/14 61
9/15 56
9/16 51
9/17 44
9/18 45
9/19 43
9/20 37
9/21 49
9/22 52
9/23 47
9/24 29
9/25 38
9/26 35
9/27 27
9/28 25

The total over the 30 day period is 1,738 --- easily greater than 1,500

and the allocation of all the reported deaths to the dates has not even been completed yet so the total will likely go up.

And my final response. If the first dozen times didn't get through to his idiocy, I don't expect this one to.

This wasn't the discussion or the metric. I quoted your entire post, but the conversation was never about 30 days - that was you moving the goal posts. The conversation was about UsualName's claim that deaths for the last 20 days was 2000 - a patently false declaration and one you supported.

 

[gwb-trading]

For posterity.

I wish I didn't have to do this, but when you're trying to discuss something with someone so disingenuous and always moving the goal posts, you have to make sure everything is spelled out specifically. Otherwise, the weasel does what weasels do. This is a complete list of the whole conversation regarding the 2000/20 days and the supposed 1500/30 days claim. You will also notice how he has stopped defending the 600 per day claim, that one is totally indefensible even for someone as desperate as he. But he'll never admit defeat, just go silent.

What started the conversation on this topic:



Please note the claim. 2000 deaths in 20 days, made on September 28. My initial response to UsualName:



Then, Palooka (GWB) inserts himself into the conversation because he can't help himself. Emphasis on his quote my own.



My Full Response to GWB's quote:



Please note I specifically mention once again the 2000 deaths in 20 days. I do this continually because, as is always the case, GWB will try to weasel out and change the metric as his previous one doesn't work.

GWB again tries to bring the 30 day metric in.



And I agree, we can go back and look - but specifically mention the 2000/20 metric again, because that is the one I am debating (and plan to go back to review). I also mention the possibility the metric will come to fruition. It is, after all, possible.



The professor tells me what we already know.



I let Professor Palooka know that I know this, and again remind him of the metric to check - the 2000/20 conversation, nothing else.



GWB feels as if he has to tell me this is already likely (again) despite his dismal forecasting record. Also, at least he focuses on the 2000/20 metric.



My update on October 5. Please note I also mention I did 21 days, same as when GWB felt he was correcting me yesterday - that's OK. 21 days gives the count an extra day, so should be in GWB's favor.



Professor Palooka's response to this:



Please note how he has said "Yet all the data is not reported for three weeks. " You can bet that if this number isn't hit after three weeks, he will try to move this goalpost as well out from three weeks.

My post from yesterday, updated 10/12.



Now, there might be some confusion for Professor Palooka reading this - and I can understand how he would want to find something - anything at all - to help him in the discussion, so I can see how he would leap to the mention of the 1500 in 30 days there, but the mention was showing how - based on the fact that he claimed 1500 in 30 days was going to happen, this meant that 2000 in 20 days was a forgone conclusion. But unfortunately that isn't what we bet on. We bet on the 2000/20 that has been mentioned all along. In desperation, he lowered the count and raised the day limit so he could get a number that actually might transpire. Sorry, Palooka. We're on to you.


Now, suddenly it's all about the 1500/30 metric.




And my final response. If the first dozen times didn't get through to his idiocy, I don't expect this one to.

Let's get back to reality... someone else made a claim that Florida had 2000 deaths in 20 days - not myself.

I stated that it was likely that Florida would have 2000 deaths over 20 days once the final accounting was done since they already had 1500 deaths over 30 days.

So let me ask again -- do you understand that 1,738 deaths is greater than 1,500?

You threw all sort of shade on the claim of 1500 deaths over 30 days.

Since Florida is now taking 6 to 8 weeks to properly allocate reported deaths to deaths by date -- it will not be into November before we know the correct dates by death for September.

With Florida reporting over 100 deaths per day on average it is statistically likely when the deaths are allocated by date that any 20 day period of dates would be over 2000 deaths.

The underlying problem is that Florida is so poor at reporting data -- that most rational people and nearly all the media sources in the state are questioning the data the state is providing. Clearly the state has been less than transparent about COVID data as they keep removing information from the state website. This past weekend the state was so screwed up that they failed to report COVID data on Saturday.

 

[Tsing Tao]

You threw all sort of shade on the claim of 1500 deaths over 30 days.

Please support this claim by providing "all the shade" I threw on the claim of 1500 deaths over 30 days. Please make sure you provide all comments with FULL posts and FULL context.

I ask you this because you've made many claims about me that you don't substantiate with any backup at all. Such as how I support doctors who claim Demon Sperm is the cure for COVID, and how I blamed COVID on 5G.

I'm still waiting for THOSE claims to be backed up, but I know you'll never say anything on them again. So please show me where I threw all this shade on the claim of 1500 over 30 days.

Lastly, I know that the 2000/20 claim was made by someone other than you. I've stated this very thing over and over again. But you stuck your fat mouth into the conversation and backed up that claim with quotes that I've posted. I can post them again if you wish.

Now you're trying to fall back on a moving the goal post position that I never argued against and could care less about. You're also trying to pivot now back to Florida data. No one gives a shit about your argument on that.

 

[gwb-trading]

Please support this claim by providing "all the shade" I threw on the claim of 1500 deaths over 30 days. Please make sure you provide all comments with FULL posts and FULL context.

I ask you this because you've made many claims about me that you don't substantiate with any backup at all. Such as how I support doctors who claim Demon Sperm is the cure for COVID, and how I blamed COVID on 5G.

I'm still waiting for THOSE claims to be backed up, but I know you'll never say anything on them again. So please show me where I threw all this shade on the claim of 1500 over 30 days.

Lastly, I know that the 2000/20 claim was made by someone other than you. I've stated this very thing over and over again. But you stuck your fat mouth into the conversation and backed up that claim with quotes that I've posted. I can post them again if you wish.

Now you're trying to fall back on a moving the goal post position that I never argued against and could care less about. You're also trying to pivot now back to Florida data. No one gives a shit about your argument on that.

If you are posting charts from sources who put out all sorts of wild COVID claims then we can only assume that you support all of their other claims. Maybe you should stick with charts from legitimate media, government and scientific resources rather than crap that you found on Twitter. It's time for you to stop sourcing your "proof" from Twitters and Bloggers who push demon-sperm promoter nonsense, COVID conspiracy theories, and other nonsensical crap.

So once again --- let's try out your basic math -- Is 1,738 deaths is greater than 1,500?