DeSantis for the win

Florida data update. Cases looked to have peaked in the July spike. There is enough data to show a trend down. Source: Worldometers

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Another view of case counts shows a significant drop in the past week. Source, Florida DoH
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But deaths matter more, and deaths have not necessarily peaked at this point, although it is possible. Remember, these are deaths as reported. Source: Worldometers

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Deaths on date of death, however, while incomplete in latest days (as all deaths for these days still haven't been reported yet) do seem to indicate a peaking event. Please note that it is unwise to consider dates 7/25 and after as fully reported on. The further out you get (towards the 8/3), the less deaths have been reported and the more the day is likely to change. Source: Florida DoH Covid Portal

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% positive continues to decline, 11.5% last week vs. high of 15% a few weeks back.

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And the infection rate is now well below the 1 threshold and still falling. Source: Covid Act Now

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Demographics of cases, hospitalizations and deaths from the Florida DoH state report.

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82% of all deaths are those over 65. This is a tad higher than the flu, in which deaths for 65+ in the 2018/19 season were 74.8% (right most red bar, below), CDC is the source. Oddly enough, this age group has the least for "symptomatic" illness, meaning they didn't show signs of having it. Maybe they were so ill already that a flu wasn't considered until too late?

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Combined mortality rate for this group is 8.7%, though without knowing the co-morbidity data for this group (how many had diabetes, lung issues, etc) this is a general number and not indicative of a healthy 65+ year old. Mortality rate would likely be a lot lower. 42% of all deaths have occurred in nursing homes and long term care facilities.

For someone like myself (45-54) the CFR (case fatality rate) is .4%, which includes people my age that have co-morbidity. A healthy 45-54 year old is likely considerably lower.

And then there is the total deaths, all causes chart. Florida shows a spike in previous weeks (we know why), but even with all the carnage you've heard in the news, the highest peak in the last data was only 228 deaths higher than the highest peak in the 2017/18 flu season. That's it.

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Tsing Tao said:
Florida data update. Cases looked to have peaked in the July spike. There is enough data to show a trend down. Source: Worldometers

View attachment 236722

Another view of case counts shows a significant drop in the past week. Source, Florida DoH
View attachment 236727


But deaths matter more, and deaths have not necessarily peaked at this point, although it is possible. Remember, these are deaths as reported. Source: Worldometers

View attachment 236723

Deaths on date of death, however, while incomplete in latest days (as all deaths for these days still haven't been reported yet) do seem to indicate a peaking event. Please note that it is unwise to consider dates 7/25 and after as fully reported on. The further out you get (towards the 8/3), the less deaths have been reported and the more the day is likely to change. Source: Florida DoH Covid Portal

View attachment 236724


% positive continues to decline, 11.5% last week vs. high of 15% a few weeks back.

View attachment 236725

And the infection rate is now well below the 1 threshold and still falling. Source: Covid Act Now

View attachment 236726


Demographics of cases, hospitalizations and deaths from the Florida DoH state report.

View attachment 236728

82% of all deaths are those over 65. This is a tad higher than the flu, in which deaths for 65+ in the 2018/19 season were 74.8% (right most red bar, below), CDC is the source. Oddly enough, this age group has the least for "symptomatic" illness, meaning they didn't show signs of having it. Maybe they were so ill already that a flu wasn't considered until too late?

View attachment 236732


Combined mortality rate for this group is 8.7%, though without knowing the co-morbidity data for this group (how many had diabetes, lung issues, etc) this is a general number and not indicative of a healthy 65+ year old. Mortality rate would likely be a lot lower. 42% of all deaths have occurred in nursing homes and long term care facilities.

For someone like myself (45-54) the CFR (case fatality rate) is .4%, which includes people my age that have co-morbidity. A healthy 45-54 year old is likely considerably lower.

And then there is the total deaths, all causes chart. Florida shows a spike in previous weeks (we know why), but even with all the carnage you've heard in the news, the highest peak in the last data was only 228 deaths higher than the highest peak in the 2017/18 flu season. That's it.

View attachment 236733
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As noted in many recent articles the number of tests in Florida and hence the positive cases would drop since some testing centers closed for the hurricane.

However this is just part of a broader trend in several states including Florida where the number of daily tests have dropped over the past two weeks. This is a time where the number of tests in COVID hot-spots such as Florida should be increasing rather than declining. The state government of Florida has not provided a response on why tests were declining rather than increasing in the state.

Of course the number of positive tests (cases) dropped as the number of tests have dropped in these states. Both at the same rate. There is nothing to cheer about here -- the drop in testing is merely concealing that the downturn in cases is "significantly overstated".

US coronavirus testing is going in the wrong direction. Declines could partially explain why cases seem to be dropping.
https://www.businessinsider.com/decline-in-coronavirus-cases-us-testing-shortages-2020-8
  • The US's daily coronavirus cases have declined over the last two weeks.
  • The trend coincides with a decline in testing per capita in hotspots like Florida, as well as a rise in test positivity rates across 32 states.
  • That means the decrease in cases could be driven by testing shortages or delays.
It seems like good news: The US's weekly average of new coronavirus cases dipped 6% this week compared to last, and 8% compared to two weeks prior. On the surface, the nation's outbreak looks to be declining after June's dramatic case surge.

But the recent downturn in cases may be "significantly overstated," according to Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, because testing has fallen at the same pace.

Testing per capita has declined steadily in at least six states — Alabama, Florida, Iowa, Kansas, Utah, and Washington — over the last two weeks. Meanwhile, test positivity rates have risen in 32 states during the same time frame, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

"If cases are declining with the number of tests being performed, it is important to look at the percent positivity of tests," Dr. Amesh Adalja, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security, told Business Insider. "If that statistic is increasing, that tells you that the outbreak is growing and the number of cases declining is a testing artifact."

(More at above url)
 
Ron DeSantis wants everyone who tests positive for COVID to go to work unless they have symptoms. In the interview DeSantis claims that this is the CDC guidance.... yet when pressed in the interview to cite the exact CDC guidance he cannot do so. Medical experts say there is no guidance from the CDC saying people with COVID should go to work.

Gov. Ron DeSantis Suggests Moving Workers From Testing To ‘Symptom-Based Approach’
https://miami.cbslocal.com/2020/08/...ntis-suggests-workers-symptom-based-approach/

Gov. Ron DeSantis has suggested that employees who test positive for the coronavirus should be evaluated using a “symptom-based approach” to determine their return to work.

The governor said his reasoning comes from CDC guidance, which he believes employers would find appealing.

(More at above url including video)
 
Symptomatic people are the ones who spread the virus. Florida is getting much much closer to herd immunity. The Governor continues to do an excellent job.
 
The Economy must be put back together and it needs to be done right now. We've no more time to wait. The country is being destroyed by Leftist lockdowns.
 
El OchoCinco said:
Cmon...even supporters of DeSantis have to admit that is fucktarded to say....
More...

DeSantis will be having his Florida Department of Health issue this new guidance shortly for employer. The bottom line as outlined in the video - DeSantis is saying that tests don't matter everyone should go back to work unless they have significant symptoms. I wonder how all the nursing home residents and hospital staff members feel about this.

At the end of the video the reporters state that this policy is medically controversial, not implemented in any other states and will simply lead to people not taking tests at all (what a great way to bring down the number of positive tests for your state).
 
From the article you posted, gwb. This is the discussion that occurred. He states quite clearly he will be following the guidance from the CDC and will not require employers to follow a negative test only (except nursing homes). A bit different than if I were to just read your post. If you test positive and you're 10-14 days past the positive test with no symptoms, you can go back to work. This is exactly the correct decision.

Here is DeSantis’ exchange with CBS4’s Jim DeFede:

DeSantis: It’s going to be very difficult to do contact tracing if I can’t tell you in a PCR test whether an asymptomatic carrier actually has live virus. And we now know you can’t do that. I think at the beginning we tended to think if you test positive, you have live virus. Well, now we’ve seen people that’ll test positive 30 days and CDC says up to 12 weeks. That makes the contact tracing of asymptomatic very difficult, even if you got an immediate turnaround. It would still be somewhat difficult, but a seven-day turnaround just makes it very difficult.

DeFede: That’s the second time you cited the CDC study that talks about a live virus or dead virus remaining in the system for 12 weeks. I talked to a number of epidemiologists and folks who study infectious diseases, and that is not clear to them… So with that study in your mind, do you foresee, for instance, saying that it’s OK for a person who has a positive test to go back to work if it’s been a week or two or three weeks since their positive test?

DeSantis: Well, that’s what CDC guidance is.

DeFede: But is that what you are about to do?

DeSantis: So we’re going to follow their guidance. So basically, it’s a symptom-based approach if you test positive. You obviously isolate. But then if you have had a certain number of days, I think it’s between 10 and 14, depending on the circumstances with no symptoms or the symptoms have subsided, no fever, then there’s a pathway for you to go back.

DeFede: So this is a new policy that you’re going to be implementing?

DeSantis: Well, this is the guidance we’re gonna give to employers. I mean, we’re not obviously requiring, we’ve never necessarily required a negative test, except for nursing home situations and a few others. Most of the employers, though, have been doing the negative PCR tests. And I think CDC guidance is we should focus more on a symptom-based approach rather than a test-based approach. And I think that that’s probably the better way to go. So, yeah, we’re going to follow that. I think Department of Health is putting out some guidance on that today. It’s not necessarily mandatory, but I think most employers will look at that and probably feel that’s a little bit more flexible.

DeFede: Do you run the risk of confusing people who may say to themselves, ‘I tested positive for the virus but does my positive test really mean anything…’ you see what I’m saying?

DeSantis: But at the same time, I mean, you know, as that as we get new information, I think we have to be honest about what that data is telling us. So, for example, if we were sitting here in the beginning of March, I mean, I would have thought a positive test was like, ‘Man, you know, definitely.’ And then just we’ve learned more about kind of the limits of the PCR testing. I think for sure, if you are experiencing coronavirus symptoms and you test positive, you have live virus. I think if you have no symptoms there is a question about whether we can tell you definitively whether you have live virus based on this.​
 
gwb-trading said:
DeSantis will be having his Florida Department of Health issue this new guidance shortly for employer. The bottom line as outlined in the video - DeSantis is saying that tests don't matter everyone should go back to work unless they have significant symptoms. I wonder how all the nursing home residents and hospital staff members feel about this.

At the end of the video the reporters state that this policy is medically controversial, not implemented in any other states and will simply lead to people not taking tests at all (what a great way to bring down the number of positive tests for your state).
More...

This isn't at all what he is saying. "Everyone should go back to work unless you have symptoms"...? He's saying a negative test isn't required. That's different.
 
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