DeSantis for the win

kingjelly said:
Everyone in Florida good luck, and be safe, hopefully it won't hit too hard!
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Thanks, brother. On the west coast of FL we got no rain and some nice breezes to help with the heat. Wonder how El Cubano did. He's down there in Hurricane Central. The only one closer to the storm than he is Jim Santori.
 
Nine_Ender said:
I just looked at that chart concerning deaths by all causes and supposed excess deaths ( or lack there of according to one source ). As I suspected, even that is starting to look bad in Florida. It appears that all these lagging indicators that people reference on here you just have to wait out the 4-5 weeks lag between infections and deaths. This is a point I made two months ago, some people get confused by the lag and put way too much confidence in data that is caused by actions 1-2 months prior.

Then of course the goal posts get moved and a new "this is all ok" standard gets set. At one point the massive increase in infections was dismissed because the infected people were younger and the daily death counts weren't increasing ( in the 40-60 range ). Dally death counts are now up by a factor of 4, while in many other parts of the world daily deaths are very, very small numbers now.

Now the excuse seems to be everyone is going to get a huge second wave outbreak with huge death counts like Florida. This may in fact be the most delusional theory of them all. Those areas that managed the tail end of the first wave well are going to do well in the second wave as well. The numbers will grow in a controlled fashion, if at all. Areas like Florida may in fact have an even worse second wave then anyone else UNLESS the delusions are over and the public starts acting responsibly. Might happen, better happen, but we will see nothing about the first wave inspires confidence about Florida dealing with Covid.
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Texas was about 4 weeks before the Florida spike. Remember all the stories about everyone in Texas dying? Their numbers aren't great, but where is all the carnage? And please, I can google articles if I want. I'm looking for the numbers and specific data.
 
Tsing Tao said:
Texas was about 4 weeks before the Florida spike. Remember all the stories about everyone in Texas dying? Their numbers aren't great, but where is all the carnage? And please, I can google articles if I want. I'm looking for the numbers and specific data.
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Sorry, here was the texas info, didn't attach.

Eec5oMoXgAMY0LU
 
Tsing Tao said:
If we hit 600 per day - or even close to it - I will absolutely admit that I've underestimated the virus badly. Putting the text right here, right now, in black and white for you to requote me if it happens so I can never say I didn't say it.

If we do not hit that level, will you admit to have overestimated it?
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I haven't overestimated it since I haven't forecast anything. What I did so in the past was 40-60 deaths was too many and that the massive spike in infections 1-2 months ago was problematic and could easily lead to even higher death rates. And it did. Given that I have no idea how responsible ( or otherwise ) the people of Florida are now, I have no idea what will actually occur in the near future. Recent day's numbers look promising.
 
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Nine_Ender said:
I haven't overestimated it since I haven't forecast anything. What I did so in the past was 40-60 deaths was too many and that the massive spike in infections 1-2 months ago was problematic and could easily lead to even higher death rates. And it did. Given that I have no idea how responsible ( or otherwise ) the people of Florida are now, I have no idea what will actually occur in the near future. Recent days numbers look promising.
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I'll always be accountable to the things I say.
 
Nine_Ender said:
I haven't overestimated it since I haven't forecast anything. What I did so in the past was 40-60 deaths was too many and that the massive spike in infections 1-2 months ago was problematic and could easily lead to even higher death rates. And it did. Given that I have no idea how responsible ( or otherwise ) the people of Florida are now, I have no idea what will actually occur in the near future. Recent day's numbers look promising.
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Seems like it was the beach decisions that were problematic. I say that because California had similar problems in Orange County were some beaches were opened perhaps early

Its not intuitive that the beach would be a big problem but maybe the virus is in perspiration as well as respiratory droplets.
 
Snarkhund said:
Seems like it was the beach decisions that were problematic. I say that because California had similar problems in Orange County were some beaches were opened perhaps early

Its not intuitive that the beach would be a big problem but maybe the virus is in perspiration as well as respiratory droplets.
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I'm not so sure the beach had anything to do with it honestly.

In Florida, over 50% of the deaths were in nursing homes. They weren't at the beach. They weren't at clubs either so there is likely a combination of multiple reasons.

Of the infected, most were in the younger cohort. Bars, clubs, etc. The young got sick and tired of being locked down, knew they weren't at risk and said "fuck it".
 
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