DeSantis for the win

[jem]

You lying duplicitous spineless piece of shit.
You snipe bullshit about me threads behind my back.
And then you lie about what I argue.

What sort of asshole are you?

I have said a dozen times... that Sweden like NY and France and Italy made big mistakes in the beginning.

The approach I advocate is the one Sweden took after it protected the high risk and old folks homes...

Its morons like you who keep trying to bring the early deaths into it. Nobody is happy Covid got into old folks homes you dumb fuck.

What I told idiots like you was that our approach in the US is stupid because we did not lock down hard enough to extinguish the virus and we were getting nowhere after the first few weeks of shutdown because once we got out... the virus could come back. Which we seeing now.


I advocate protecting the high risk, letting the low risk out as long as the local hospitals have room and test and trace to shut down clusters.

Of interest in the bigger picture, North York General the biggest hospital in our area ( and a hot spot for SARS many years ago ) has no Covid patients at all now. What I'm saying is taking a patient, responsible approach to this virus may possibly allow you to open up in stages, avoid the worst of it, and once the treatments improve and spread is dissipated it's a major win for the area.

Again, I don't say this with absolute certainty, but the data the last month plus suggests the path we chose was a good one. Those who believe a sudden fast opening or Sweden's initial approach was ideal ( eg Jem ) may be in for a slow awakening that their ideas were flawed to some degree ( in Jem's case a lot ). More then half of Ontario's current infections were from poorly managed farms near Windsor. What will be interesting to see is in a low infection area, will the virus peter out eventually, and how will we mitigate the danger of still having high infection areas in the world. Will the commencement of busier office work and sports activities lead to a second wave and to what degree in each area ? Guess we'll see.

 

[Nine_Ender]

You lying duplicitous spineless piece of shit.
You snipe bullshit about me threads behind my back.
And then you lie about what I argue.

What sort of asshole are you?

I have said a dozen times... that Sweden like NY and France and Italy made big mistakes in the beginning.

The approach I advocate is the one Sweden took after it protected the high risk and old folks homes...

Its morons like you who keep trying to bring the early deaths into it. Nobody is happy Covid got into old folks homes you dumb fuck.

What I told idiots like you was that our approach in the US is stupid because we did not lock down hard enough to extinguish the virus and we were getting nowhere after the first few weeks of shutdown because once we got out... the virus could come back. Which we seeing now.


I advocate protecting the high risk, letting the low risk out as long as the local hospitals have room and test and trace to shut down clusters.

I'm going to be very clear with you. You need to shut the fuck up you are part of the problem. Your theories are garbage and you have not been acting responsibly coming out of the lock down. I'm totally up front about this, and if you persist I will not hold back. If you cannot temper your approach at all you will confirm that you are the selfish, narcissistic asshole I alluded to weeks ago. Or mentally ill, hard to tell sometimes.

 

[gwb-trading]

Since you've had all day to look at this and all you've posted is your comments on the governor of NC, I'm going to make the assumption you accept my data as presented and that your Friday "Here are the death's finally" post about Florida is withdrawn. I know you rarely admit to being mistaken, but I think this is as good as I'm going to get with you.

Not done yet. Had limited time today

 

[destriero]

 

[RRY16]

Where’s Tsing? Fixing his bidet?

 

[Nine_Ender]

View attachment 234571

The disparities in the data some of us brought up a month ago have widened even more. Ontario will be discussing the plans to move to level 3 open tomorrow.

 

[El OchoCinco]

We followed the rules and most businesses in our area got a lot of support and we are already in phase 3 after a scare of a growth cluster early on... deaths and new cases are very limited compared to population.

Now we have to wait until the other parts of the country who bitched and moaned stay closed longer and really cause harm to all those small businesses they whined about protecting. Guess what..they are still closed and will stay closed as cases keep rising.

Here? between PPP and local support spending and funding and big pushes for limited openings i think many small businesses will come out ok but need more support into the Fall. It may have been excessive at times but as I said, while we are emerging and opening up more places/businesses, other states who did not even want to try are shutting down businesses left and right in chaos.

 

[destriero]

Where’s Tsing? Fixing his bidet?

A quick drink from the fountain.

 

[Tsing Tao]

Florida update on 7/13...

Unless you were living under a rock or unplugged completely from social and main stream media, you've no doubt heart how Florida had a record day of cases. And by record, I don't just mean Florida's record. The whole country's record. As in the single, largest case count for a day by any state since the start of the crisis. See Worldometers chart:

Now, right away when I look at this chart I question how a 50% increase in new cases happens one day over the next. Especially when you look at how we were running around the 10-10.5k a day since end of June. And then, wham! 15k. And I wish I could say definitively whether this is a data anomaly or whether the shit just hit the fan.

Those rushing to blame everything on DeSantis will no doubt choose the latter as their preferred narrative, and they may be right. But I prefer to actually investigate. Thus far, this is what I've seen:

First, as relevant as I suppose it is, the overall positive testing rate actually declined despite such a sharp increase in the reported cases.

This is because the number of tests per day is up ~28% per day, week over week.

Florida is now testing ~72,000 people a day. So with such an increase in testing, it is not surprising case counts will also take off.

Then there was this article from the local affiliate in Martin County (one of the epicenters of the virus around Miami):

‘Technical issue’ leads to negative coronavirus test underreporting

Feel free to read the article, but a few choice quotes are:

Positive COVID-19 cases are being promptly reported, but there are potentially thousands of negative COVID-19 test results that have yet to be reported to the Florida Department of Health’s COVID-19 dashboard.​

Essentially positive results are being reported right away. Negative results are being backlogged and reported later down the road, sometimes significantly later. Now, some people think this is intentional to spike the count, but I don't believe it is malicious. I think that the labs are just overwhelmed and want to make sure people who test positive are informed right away so they can make maximum impact. I don't believe there's anything nefarious going on.

Still, this would greatly affect the overall positive/negative ratio. Not sure it would affect the case counts, but it could affect which days they are reported on if there is a backlog and a big catch up.

However, not being one to actually just take the article at its word, you can access the Florida Department of Health data (for July 10) manually here: http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/covid19_report_archive/state_reports_20200711.pdf

It is 48 pages long with lots of data. But at the bottom, it lists Testing By Laboratory, and the detail for each lab, along with positive, negative tests, % positive and the number of overall tests.

If you scroll down, you'll see results like this:

There are actually several hundred labs at 100% positive. Now, some of these only tested 1 patient. But for the others, are we supposed to believe 104 people were tested and there wasn't one negative person? Really?

To say the positive tests and case counts are overstated might be academic at this point. There are also cases (this is anecdotal) where people claim to have gone to test, but because it was an hour wait they left because they didn't want to wait, only to receive their results later that week saying they tested positive. I am tempted to go to a testing facility just to try this out and see what my results are. Sign up, wait and don't take the test.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Florida update on 7/13...

Unless you were living under a rock or unplugged completely from social and main stream media, you've no doubt heart how Florida had a record day of cases. And by record, I don't just mean Florida's record. The whole country's record. As in the single, largest case count for a day by any state since the start of the crisis. See Worldometers chart:

View attachment 234877

Now, right away when I look at this chart I question how a 50% increase in new cases happens one day over the next. Especially when you look at how we were running around the 10-10.5k a day since end of June. And then, wham! 15k. And I wish I could say definitively whether this is a data anomaly or whether the shit just hit the fan.

Those rushing to blame everything on DeSantis will no doubt choose the latter as their preferred narrative, and they may be right. But I prefer to actually investigate. Thus far, this is what I've seen:

First, as relevant as I suppose it is, the overall positive testing rate actually declined despite such a sharp increase in the reported cases.

View attachment 234878

This is because the number of tests per day is up ~28% per day, week over week.

View attachment 234879

Florida is now testing ~72,000 people a day. So with such an increase in testing, it is not surprising case counts will also take off.

Then there was this article from the local affiliate in Martin County (one of the epicenters of the virus around Miami):

‘Technical issue’ leads to negative coronavirus test underreporting

Feel free to read the article, but a few choice quotes are:

Positive COVID-19 cases are being promptly reported, but there are potentially thousands of negative COVID-19 test results that have yet to be reported to the Florida Department of Health’s COVID-19 dashboard.​

Essentially positive results are being reported right away. Negative results are being backlogged and reported later down the road, sometimes significantly later. Now, some people think this is intentional to spike the count, but I don't believe it is malicious. I think that the labs are just overwhelmed and want to make sure people who test positive are informed right away so they can make maximum impact. I don't believe there's anything nefarious going on.

Still, this would greatly affect the overall positive/negative ratio. Not sure it would affect the case counts, but it could affect which days they are reported on if there is a backlog and a big catch up.

However, not being one to actually just take the article at its word, you can access the Florida Department of Health data (for July 10) manually here: http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/covid19_report_archive/state_reports_20200711.pdf

It is 48 pages long with lots of data. But at the bottom, it lists Testing By Laboratory, and the detail for each lab, along with positive, negative tests, % positive and the number of overall tests.

If you scroll down, you'll see results like this:

View attachment 234880
View attachment 234881

There are actually several hundred labs at 100% positive. Now, some of these only tested 1 patient. But for the others, are we supposed to believe 104 people were tested and there wasn't one negative person? Really?

To say the positive tests and case counts are overstated might be academic at this point. There are also cases (this is anecdotal) where people claim to have gone to test, but because it was an hour wait they left because they didn't want to wait, only to receive their results later that week saying they tested positive. I am tempted to go to a testing facility just to try this out and see what my results are. Sign up, wait and don't take the test.

I believe it's highly likely now that numbers are being falsified.