Trump aims to box out others in GOP considering 2024 presidential bid
https://wset.com/news/nation-world/...hers-in-gop-considering-2024-presidential-bid
As former President Donald Trump vows to “take back the White House,” other Republicans eying a run for the Oval Office face difficult decisions as they attempt to keep their 2024 options open without attracting his fury.
"This is maybe the most important election we've ever had, but I do believe 2024 will be even more important," Trump said
at a rally in Arizona Saturday. "This is the year we are going to take back the House, we are going to take back the Senate and we are going to take back America.”
Trump’s political future was in doubt when he left Washington last January in the shadow of the Jan. 6 riot, but he has emerged as a powerful force in the GOP, prodding the party to embrace his baseless claims of election fraud. He has not announced plans to run again, but allies say he is likely to
mount another campaign if President Joe Biden looks beatable next spring.
Several top Republicans have indicated they would not take on Trump if he seeks the presidential nomination. Others have said Trump’s plans would have no bearing on their decision, but it currently seems doubtful anyone could mount a credible challenge to the party’s most prominent figure – and Trump aims to keep it that way.
Trump has taken aim at Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in recent days, calling him “dull” in private and publicly suggesting he is “gutless” for not confirming his vaccine booster status. According to media reports, the former president has grown frustrated that DeSantis, who he once endorsed, has not publicly ruled out running against him in 2024.
Riding a wave of conservative praise of his response to the COVID-19 pandemic, DeSantis
has consistently topped polls of possible Republican 2024 candidates without Trump on the ballot. The Florida governor has downplayed tensions with Trump, accusing the media of trying to rile up conflict while remaining vague about his plans beyond his 2022 reelection bid.
"You cannot fall for the bait...,” DeSantis said
on the “Ruthless” podcast last week. “You know what they're trying to do, so just don't take it. Just keep on keeping on. We need everybody united for a big red wave in 2022.”
According to former political media consultant Tobe Berkovitz, avoiding the Trump question is the “smartest move” for prospective Republican candidates.
However, as DeSantis’ experience demonstrates, sidestepping Trump is easier said than done, especially for those the former president believes pose the greatest threat to him.
“Trump has great radar for spotting who the comers are,” said Berkovitz, a professor of advertising at Boston University. “As soon as he sees that you are starting to really become somebody, then he is going to make it his objective to make you nobody. That puts a politician in a damned-if-you-do, damned-if-you-don’t situation.”
In a Quinnipiac University poll
released last week, 59% of Americans said they would prefer if Trump does not seek a return to the White House in 2024. Nearly 70% of Republicans want Trump to run again, but GOP support has slid almost 10 points since October.
That leaves Trump as a clear frontrunner in a Republican primary contest, even if his standing in a general election race is less certain. Some recent surveys have suggested Trump could beat Biden in a 2020 rematch, but
others indicate Biden still holds an advantage despite his sagging approval ratings.
“Credible Republicans with governing experience should challenge Trump,” former White House communications director Alyssa Farah Griffin tweeted Monday. “There’s zero reason to nominate Trump again when R’s have a bench & Biden is polling in the 30s.”
The prospect of another Trump run has stirred growing concern among the former president’s GOP critics.
According to CNN, Griffin and about three dozen other former Trump administration officials held a conference call Monday to strategize efforts to fend off his influence in 2022 and 2024 – including retired Gen. John Kelly, Trump’s former chief of staff.
"The two operative words are 'electoral effects.' How can we have tangible electoral effects against the extremist candidates that have been endorsed by Trump?" former Trump Department of Homeland Security official Miles Taylor told CNN.
Whether Trump-aligned candidates win 2022 primaries or not, the Republican Party is on track for a strong midterm performance that will likely set the stage for its 2024 campaign. The former president intends to be a significant presence on the campaign trail, and Berkovitz said anyone who hopes to compete with him for the presidential nomination will need to do the same.
“The smart thing now is to be a player in the 2022 elections, do the circuit, support people running for Congress, support people running for Senate and governor, be part of the fabric for Republicans’ winning 2022 campaign,” he said.
After losing control of the House, Senate, and White House under Trump, the Republican Party’s prospects have rapidly rebounded amid widespread frustration with the Biden administration and Democratic congressional majorities. Polling
released by Gallup Monday showed a 14-point shift in voter identification toward the GOP over the last year.
Some Republicans have credited the party’s gains in 2021 in part to ushering Trump out of the political spotlight. He has been barred from major social media outlets for the last year, has held only a handful of rallies, and played a minor role in off-year elections last fall.
“A Republican Party without Trump publicly out front is not the unpopular party Democrats thought,” said conservative radio host Erick Erickson. “That’s probably way so many anti-Trump people invest so much energy in making sure Trump stays as visible as possible.”
Renominating the divisive former president could risk mobilizing moderate opposition and scaring off the suburban voters who have begun to return to the GOP. It could also help energize the voters who turned out for Trump in 2016 and 2020 and might stay home if he is not on the ballot.
For anti-Trump Republicans and others who aspire to outmaneuver him for the nomination, those Trump voters remain the biggest obstacle. They are fiercely loyal to the former president, their support has been unwavering through numerous scandals and two impeachments, and they are ultimately the ones who will decide the party’s presidential primaries.
“It’s moot what the party wants,” Berkovitz said. “The nature of primaries is it is the base that comes out to vote, and as of now, Trump’s strength is the base.”
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