It has told us already not be arrogant. With all that "info" being available the "smartest" pricks kept telling us something about the impossibility of the krisis a couple of years ago. Now the game just goes on. You seem to be a guy who reads and writes a lot. But by any means you do not seem to be a guy who observes and analyses the results thereof a lot. No offense intended. By the way your sarcastic response was in the cards.
Derivatives: The Unregulated Global Casino for Banks
- Thread starter Banjo
- Start date
It has told us already not be arrogant. With all that "info" being available the "smartest" pricks kept telling us something about the impossibility of the krisis a couple of years ago. Now the game just goes on. You seem to be a guy who reads and writes a lot. But by any means you do not seem to be a guy who observes and analyses the results thereof a lot. No offense intended. By the way your sarcastic response was in the cards.
Nobody is being arrogant. A realistic analysis of the derivatives exposures can be found elsewhere and the issue has been discussed ad nauseum.
Notional size is the dumbest metric out there. For example, to get to 100k in dv01 of fed fund futures, you need approximatley 2,300 contracts which is 1.1 billion in notional. And these days, given how volatile fed funds are, 100k is a baby size. So a few guys hedging their forward funding would easily reach a trillion dollars.
You missed my point..,sorry for being fuzzy in my post. And thanks for the metrics. I hope they are of any use for you.
Ok. Even with all this data (let alone its accuracy) being available, we just do not know how the whole system will behave in case of unexpected disturbances and what the ramifications of such a scenario are. Ben Bernanke has already shown his arrogance (or was it actually sheer stupidity) to those who paid attention. And he is considered to be one of the "brilliant " minds out there with access to a lot of "info".
Re
S.Nevermind, I do not care about them anyway.
Whatever pleases your ego...
I'm glad I'm old.
This is 100% correct and there's a lot of work and analysis that lots of people are doing to try and understand the system fragility issues. And yes, this work is needed and useful, but none of it uses notional values as a starting point. Only ZH and his ilk keep putting these ridiculously large numbers forward for shock 'n awe purposes, which actually betrays their total ignorance of the subject. However, I think most people are aware now that it's a bunch of bollox.