To me, market efficiency is another theoretical concept that has distorted our general perception of how markets work. Markets are always in disequilibrium, for if they were totally efficient then participants wouldn't make or lose more than their proportionate share of the "pie". But we do everyday.
I think you have a bit of an issue with definitions. For example, "market efficiency" has a very specific meaning, and it's not the one you attribute to it. Weak form market efficiency would mean that past price movements are not predictive of future price movements. That is all. Strong form market efficiency would mean that all known information about a security is reflected in its price. There is a tremendous amount of research in this area, very in-depth and quantitative in nature, I highly recommend a google scholar search to read some of the literature.. In addition, your reasoning for markets always being in disequilibrium is neither correct or really even rational. The current price of any security reflects the equilibrium price of all the sellers and buyers at that moment in time absent any market distortions like limits on short sales, for example. That's the definition of an equilibrium price in a market with a large number of buyers and sellers. How much of a proportional pie participants get has nothing to do with equilibrium or efficiency.
Your "guaranteed but not risk free" idea is similarly pseudo-philosophical double-talk that makes no sense. I think you're trying to say you have a hedged strategy that works well in various types of markets. As many others have pointed out, you probably have no such thing, you've made no convincing argument why derivatives would make such a thing possible if you had found it, and you're setting yourself up to repeat history by not knowing about it or somehow believing it doesn't apply to you. You're in way over your head, and babbling these "deep thoughts" in no way makes you smarter than the rest of the market.
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If I've found an edge and this is the closest i can come to revealing it? It's not rocket science. And rather than deconstruct your veiled attempt at intellectualized sophistry (you sound like an economist making academic assertions about "all else being equal" concepts that don't apply to actual everyday markets) I will just reserve my rebuttal for the journals. Don't force me to respond bc it was absolute horseshit. What is that Shiller?
In over my head? You sound like the guy who trains for years to run a sub 11.0 100 meter dash when he sees a freshie beat his personal best with no training. All men aren't created equal and the bigger the markets the more loopholes and edges to be leveraged by those who see the fields beyond the boundaries of mortal eyes.
At the end of the day it's the $ in the bank and if a billionaire trader showed you his edge you would probably think he was putting you on, you mug.
Again with the definitions. Words have meanings my friend and you don’t get to make them up! Sophistry means “the use of fallacious arguments, especially with the intention of deceiving”. I bring a huge body of quantitative research regarding market efficiency to the table, you bring “Markets are always in disequilibrium, for if they were totally efficient then participants wouldn't make or lose more than their proportionate share of the "pie".” That would be pretty close to the definition of a fallacious argument, if it’s an argument at all.
If you think the body of quant research on market efficiency is wrong, I’m all ears for what specifically is wrong with it, as are the hundreds of people who’ve done the research. It sounds to me like you have a bit of the anti-intellectual in you. You’re a real practitioner, in the trenches while those academics are in their ivory towers and don’t understand the “real world” like you do, right? And you know this despite never having read a thing they’ve researched, and of course since you’ve never read it you don’t have any concrete issues you can raise with the research. Again if you do, I’d love to hear it. But of course you can “see the fields beyond the boundaries of mortal eyes.” so who needs real data and that maths thing.
Good luck, if you need someone to be the counterparty to your trades I volunteer!
