Agree with everything you said right there. I've never really claimed to be "reasonable".
deploying new capital... in stages or all at once?
- Thread starter stockmarketbeginner
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I noticed on that chart, ironchief,the scale in[dollar cost] is close to , ''invest immediately bar '' in %.
And since OCT-March/APR tend to be the best 6/7 in the stock market, cant really think of a good reason to overload late Jan. PUT another way=======even a good bull market uptrend has some pullbacks no matter how slight, FEB tends not to do as well as JAN.JAN is strong, but almost never as strong as even JAN-APR
You might want to test your thesis on market data over the past (Ohhhh, let's say, 'decade') before you recommend it to others.
For testing, much longer would be much better.
I disagree. The policy wonk/economist/social scientist in me says, "Yay! More data! Larger n!!! Yay!" But I believe that there have been structural changes in the market which obviate the usefulness of [a lot of] data beyond ~2007. Not *all* of it, but a 'yes' in specific regards to market-wide dives followed by near-total, immediate, recoveries. And it's that V-bottom behavior that would set up a wait-to-buy-on-the-dip investor for disaster: they miss out on the rise, and by the time they hear about the dive, it's over.
"Da-ammmmmn!"
Good points. Thank you. Those charts were from Schwab.%%
I noticed on that chart, ironchief,the scale in[dollar cost] is close to , ''invest immediately bar '' in %.
And since OCT-March/APR tend to be the best 6/7 in the stock market, cant really think of a good reason to overload late Jan. PUT another way=======even a good bull market uptrend has some pullbacks no matter how slight, FEB tends not to do as well as JAN.JAN is strong, but almost never as strong as even JAN-APR
As for timing, I tried but was always wrong on when to get out and when to get back in.
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Stock Traders Almanac[book by Hirsch]can help, but i never average bull markets + bear markets-they are too different.I think they were the first to nickname; OCT=bear killer. NOT a prediction.
People who bought and held Berkshire or market proxies for 30 year periods did ok.
*past performance is no guarantee...
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Commissions were to expensive, in the early years, unless you were an elephant. BUT since i would rather do to MUCH work,,,,,,, than not enough,i agree
. NOT sure a stock/stock market chart before the FED means much but i study them anyway.Saw a KO ad today said ''since 1886+since 1886'' NOT a stock tip or prediction.Just curious Mr. Turtle, why do you have to put disclaimers on every statement you made? Are you a professional fund manager or financial adviser?%%
Commissions were to expensive, in the early years, unless you were an elephant. BUT since i would rather do to MUCH work,,,,,,, than not enough,i agree
I have to admit, your comments were very good and accurate, definitely not from a mom and pop amateur like me.
Regards,
%%Just curious Mr. Turtle, why do you have to put disclaimers on every statement you made? Are you a professional fund manager or financial adviser?
I have to admit, your comments were very good and accurate, definitely not from a mom and pop amateur like me.
Regards,
Its because , ironchief ,some trends are not so good; but some trends are so good- so i need to remind myself also- not a prediction. LOL