Denise Shull Says Tape Reading Art is Real and Alive

Quote from marketsurfer:

If charts are not used for predictions and merely create a "possibility" Peter Br#ndt's words--- why not just use random entries? Random entries also create the possibility of a win or a loss, depending on luck and money management. I dont' understand the chart crutch when it comes to making trading decisions.

I'll venture that 99% of all chart artists have little or no back ground in statistics or probability studies-- resulting in the wacky notions

I think the chart delusion is a consequence of
Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy


http://www.amazon.com/Innumeracy-Mathematical-Illiteracy-Its-Consequences/dp/0809058405



surf

ps Thread is pushing 12,000 hits in 10 days and is the 13th all time largest hit producer in the history of the Psych thread in its short existence----
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Do yourself a favor...pick any market, gold, crude, SPY etc. Whip out excel and apply a rolling volatility study in that market with your high and low data, let's say over a rolling window of 15 days.

See if there is a correlation with volatility in one period with volatility in the prior period. If you have done any work with simple statistics this should take you less than 20 minutes. Take it a step further...Do periods of compressed volatility precede periods of higher volatility? Do these periods of compressed volatility look like anyone of your favorite chart patterns?

You will see why chart patterns provide possibility. Not just possibility of a random move but a significant move!

Now this is pretty simple stuff...the fact is you haven't done the work. Thats usually what it comes down to...most people arent willing to put the work in!
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

When you are ready to move beyond magical thinking, charting the past, and whatever that stuff is posted above with the secret words, pretty pictures and circular logic--- its time to


Be interested in the "name" behind the thread-- Denise Shull's work--- you can find it here:

http://www.marketmindgames.net

Good stuff!

surf


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LOL...At least you are doing what you are good at, which is shilling for others.

While you are on the subject of Denise, did you read the title of this thread?

Reading the chart is just tape reading, IMO.
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

When I recorded my chat with him back in 2005, he was pretty much leaning on astrology for his predictions-- but i don't doubt his chart reliance---- astro, charts, tea leaves--- all the same basis...

http://www.marketsurfer.com/?p=60
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that is the point the astrology was the show...
I used to see him on cnbc... he would start of with the moon in capricorn but then he would show you a graph and it would be a head and shoulders on the dow. or something similar.

when you read a fund perspective and hear the head guy speak of fundamentals and research... do you really believe them?

my friend was a head trader at a fund... the head guy loved to short stocks which made huge moves....

he had a great record and money poured in.
his prime broker told him to speak about fundamentals for the investors.

Even though he just shorted really extended stocks. (he had a filter to avoid short squeezes... but I have forgotten it.)

In the end trading is using the right tool in the right market... or its about cheating.

your call.
 
Quote from river:

I appreciate your detailed, thoughtful answer. Thank you.

-river
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Here is a look at how the herd's uncertainty before housing and after housing stuff affected the market.

The first move one "slower fractal" had those bookmarks as the herd's dominance went into the second non dom move and out and then back to dominance for end of day.

Open Friday is LONG. Note the long is part way through with P1, T1 and P2 bagged on bars 79, 80 and 81, respectively. Prior days after margin shift were in a lateral; this is different mentality.

I deleted the attachment for practical reasons.
 
Quote from jack hershey:

Open Friday is LONG. Note the long is part way through with P1, T1 and P2 bagged on bars 79, 80 and 81, respectively. Prior days after margin shift were in a lateral; this is different mentality.
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Interesting. Following the methodology in Spyder's Journal, roughly, my "carry over" on the 5 minute ES is "long", after Point 3, looking for an FTT or a VE.

I wonder how my "carry over" fits with your RDBMS "carry over"?

-river
 
Quote from Shanb:

He has made up his mind about the matter, its not worth your time to continue a discussion that will lead no where.

The whole discussion about TA is misdirected imo. Over the years there are only a couple things that I know to be consistent rules in the financial markets.

Contraction is followed by expansion
Trends will continue in motion until they don't

If you take these two TRUTHS and have a TA system to define what conditions are in place than you are good IMO. TA used as forecasting tool is incorrect. TA is nothing more than a tool to define what conditions are present in the market.

Like William Oneil once said...trading is a business of interpretation and not of prediction.
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Absolutely agree. "Correct" TA is very basic really, so is the market itself. Up/down/sideways, volatility expansion/contraction. Nothing else there. :)
 
You didn't start this thread, in case you got caught up in the action and thought you did. :p

Quote from marketsurfer:





surf

ps Thread is pushing 12,000 hits in 10 days and is the 13th all time largest hit producer in the history of the Psych thread in its short existence----
More...
 
Quote from cornixforex:

Absolutely agree. "Correct" TA is very basic really, so is the market itself. Up/down/sideways, volatility expansion/contraction. Nothing else there. :)
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Most have heard the Wall Street saying: "Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
In my opinion, a failing with many in trading or interpreting TA is they are greedy and want to or think they can wring a dollar out of every price move.
When they discover TA theory causes them to lose money, they then blame TA or throw away what may have been a money making idea or strategy.
 
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