Definition of trend

1.Trend is a continuous price movement in one direction.
2. Trend has some distance and duration that traders can enter, follow and exit so to profit from it.
A continuous price movement, if too short too soon, is not a trend , because traders would not be able to enter, follow and exit it.
3. Trend is recognizable.
A continuous price movement, if not recognizable, would be the same thing as random price movement.
%%
That'$ practical, like a 200 period moving average..........Trends are about probabilities NOT predictions. IBD founder named it [200dma]a ''late sell signal ''; funny + true.
 
Obviously, we can also trade a trend within a range. The hard part is of course determining if we are in a trend, range, or random prices. When you are able to determine what price action is doing based on technical analysis, then you can develop a system to trade it and then you can add more contracts as your equity curve trends upward for a system. Obviously, the above are still just words so we need to see some statistical analysis that I am correct in my theory.

For example, this system that I helped with is currently based on my theory that oil is in a range and has actual trades that we can analyze to see if the theory is proving correct. If the theory is correct then the system can be scaled.

https://www.collective2.com/details/105485216

Trend (for example an uptrend) is based on a HH followed by a HL followed by a HH in the time frame that you are trading. These symbols can be generated by your charting software instead of hand drawing by using an indicator. The benefit of using these symbols and not drawing a trend channel or line is that in real life candles can and do appear outside of the trend lines.

However, seeing the trend does not mean that is how you need to trade. For example, if you see evidence that a strong double bottom for the day is holding, then you could trade against the current down trend for a bounce off of this bottom. The experience is being able to NOT pick bottoms in a falling trend. This can be because the overall trend in a larger time frame for example for oil could be in a tight range, and so bottoms and tops might hold vs another derivative that trends say up in a higher time frame causing the lower time frame tops to not hold.
 
Markets are always trending, they are also always consolidating. Price action has to be considered in the time frame(s) you use. You can always dial down to find a trend within a range but the lower you go, the more difficult the trade.
 
Obviously, we can also trade a trend within a range. The hard part is of course determining if we are in a trend, range, or random prices. When you are able to determine what price action is doing based on technical analysis, then you can develop a system to trade it and then you can add more contracts as your equity curve trends upward for a system. Obviously, the above are still just words so we need to see some statistical analysis that I am correct in my theory.

For example, this system that I helped with is currently based on my theory that oil is in a range and has actual trades that we can analyze to see if the theory is proving correct. If the theory is correct then the system can be scaled.

https://www.collective2.com/details/105485216
%%
Right on TX TEA range,OW77; most call it a range.I like to name it uptrend , downtrend; [or sideways= slop= chop trend] {aka=range}.
 
I call sideways action bard wire like Dr Brooks. What I mean by a range on a higher time frame is that you have a sideways channel 80 to 150 tick apart where price can trend up to the top of the range in trend channel and then back down to bottom.

%%
Right on TX TEA range,OW77; most call it a range.I like to name it uptrend , downtrend; [or sideways= slop= chop trend] {aka=range}.
 
Trends have two parts. The larger timeframe and the smaller working timeframe. I define an uptrend as two or more higher swing levels that are consistent with the higher time frame. A downtrend is the opposite. A range bound market on the larger timeframe represents scalping/short trend trading opportunities.
 
Waves within waves within waves within waves within waves is all everything in the universe truly is. That includes markets.

It has to be, because that is the nature of the universe itself. Cycles within cycles within cycles. This is why Elliot-wave folks see micro 1,2,3,4,5 within the macro wave 3, and A,B,C within that macro wave 1,2,3,4,5. Ya' just gotta' smooth it all out and get rid of the jitter. That can only happen with longer time-frames.
 
Back
Top