Defining Risk

Originally posted by Jeffrey

So to answer again. Yes, all one needs to do is to play the system, scale up the share size, and simply click the mouse.
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Earlier, I tried to deliver a message through analogies, but failed. I was facetious giving an answer that was wanted.

I agree vpiNeo, a thread called "Off Topic" should be started.lol

P.S. I think I have a "special gift", and that is the attitude to do what ever it takes to get what I want without hurting others.

Jeffrey
 
Jeffery,

Your analogies are false and your argument unconvincing. Complex coordinated movements are required to play good basketball, baseball, boxing etc. Can you move your finger quickly? Then you can click a mouse with the best of them.

If you truly have a well-defined SYSTEM that works, then it can be automated because the rules that govern your system are explicit and known to you. They can be programmed...unless it's not as explicit as you believe. What's so hard to understand about that?

Also, ANYONE on this planet that can understand your system's algorithm, then quickly click a mouse can successfully trade your system. Assuming of course that you have a true defined system in the first place (which I doubt).

I'm only trying to draw a distinction b/w what a TRUE well-defined system really entails, as opposed to a loose set of rules or stategy (which is what I think you and everyone else has)

The reason i posted at all is because I hear all the time traders stating they have this great 'system" but it only works for them...nobody else can use it. Or I hear "everything works! just find your own system!". HA...like it's really that easy. Just go out a get one. Any system will do...they all work. Find one you like. BS! is what I say to that.

All "systems' don't work, if they are systems at all. There are a few realtionships in the market, some time tested, some transient inefficiencies that crop up from time to time, and if your trading "system" or strategy does not include these...you will fail.

A system is not necessarily valid just because you feel comfortable with it. A true system has explicit understandable rules/principles that ANYONE on this planet with normal intellect and manual dexterity can use successfully if in fact the system is truly valid.

Feel free to post another wise crack. If that's all you've got to say.

tradeRX
 
What I meant to say was that in my opinion, there is not one trader out there who is consistently making money from a computer generated "system" that's on auto pilot.

If there is, I'd love to hear about it. There is a big difference between having a strategy and having an automated system. The latter of which does NOT exist.

How can one program a computer to read the tape, or read charts. You just can't because it's way to subjective.

If there were, I'd just throw $100,000 into an account, turn on the computer, kick back and let the $$$ roll in!

 
TraderX
I think you are being rude. It is OK to have opinions, it is something else to flame.

However, I agree with you that not ALL trading systems work. Of course not. And yes, if the system is fully defined anyone 'should' be able to trade it.
The sad truth is people are usually not robots and can't always trade any system.

What about a system with good performance but a drawdown of 25% ? well, I would not trade such a system. But another trader might. So yes, the trader's psychology has a part in this process of loosing and failing, it is not only about the strategy [and what about my analogy of the trading floor traders with the same training, strategy and means ?].

About automated systems, again, there are automated systems used everyday. And with much more money than $100000 and they do work. not all the time, not whatever happens in the market and not without some human monitoring. There are still automated trading systems.

I understand that you refer to some silly ads in magazines selling useless black box systems or 'holy grail like' solutions. These won't work. I agree with you.
I don't think there are good automated systems available to the public that you can just switch on and make money with. And that's what you are refering to, and that's OK.
But in several firms I know there are automated systems, proprietary and not public, used to make money everyday.

Well, I am involved in several threads about this topic. Maybe I should stop. After all, fundamentally I agree with your warning to wanabe traders regarding 'systems to sale'.
However, it is not the whole truth about the topic, that's all. And again, maybe it is better to respectfully argue ideas not people. at least, that's the policy in this forum.

vpiNeo
 
Are there Automated systems that consistently make money????

I'll say a name that should stop this arguement once and for all. Tom Basso.

He was a featured trader in the New Market Wizards. He has been in the top 10% of performance for hedge funds for years. Guess what? Everything he does is fully automated by computers.

rtharp
 
I would say that it is very simple as to whether any black box system would work.

If it works the proprietor would not offer it to the public. He would be using it to make his fortune.

Ah, but if it doesn't work.....then sell it to the masses and make lots of mula.

Again. Very simple.

Lesson learned:
Don't buy any black box system.
If you're not willing to put in the time and hard work to learn how to trade properly....then you are in the wrong game. You will blow out of this game very quickly.

Just my two cents

Kevin
 
Originally posted by tradeRX
Jeffery,
Feel free to post another wise crack. If that's all you've got to say.
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I have posted on this thread to share my experiences, and knowledge, which partly has come from experienced traders on this thread. It's not just because I am a real nice generous guy. It helps me more than it helps others.

I find that you are forcing me to be very blunt with you. You started out on GNP thread asking questions, and continued after explainations by a couple of aliases. I thought I could try and make it more clear to you by using analogies. You did not listen, and replied with your continued negative tone(doubt). After indirectly explaining that I gave up, and gave you the answer you wanted, you take it as a wise crack.

It is clear to me that you want your hand held. I could call high probability trades real-time, but why? I believe as my mentors. "Teach a man to fish", not feed a man. I get expert advice only after the "expert" sees in me qualities it takes to make it happen. I went through a period where I wish I had someone to tell me when to buy and when to sell. In fact, I was frustrated that brokers did not know anything, because I didn't want to accept reality.(Laziness; a human element)

Originally posted by Jeffrey on Intraday Indicators thread

A software developer has approached me to create a software system for the trades that I have been calling to him. He and his partner understand that this is not for the public.
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This is just an initial idea from the software engineer. I am not ready to move on this, nor do I understand if it can be done. From reading this thread I believe it can be done to some extent, but I am on my bottom steps of my trading plan. This idea just added another step to the plan.

Jeffrey
 
Jeffery,

I like to try to establish a reasonable foundation for trading strategy. Trying to understand the rational underpinnings for things I do is something I enjoy. I want to distill the truth from the BS. If you want to call that "negative", go right ahead. Evaluating with a critical eye (what you call negativity) is ALWAYS an advantage over blind acceptance and ignorance. BTW, I found it amusing you say you replied under several aliases but I just didn't listen. I heard your arguments and your analogies, you didn't convince me. No thanks to your offer to post your "high-probability" trade picks. I don't know what I'd do with all that money 8-DDD

tradeRX

PS I don't want to hold your hand either.
 
To make a long story short, the basic indicator in a 'no matter what' market seems to be the Stochastics. Most stocks will comply withe the laws of Stochastics, and i think this is one of the best trading systems manual or automatic. Its true, that 1 out of 5 times the Stochastic will fluctuate, but how bad is that. Can we safely say that the Stochastic is the common denominator once you cut out all the TA fat?
 
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