IMHO, it is IMPOSSIBLE given our current level of understanding, to _predict_ anything about the market for more than about 6-10 minutes into the future.
I agree understanding the market is difficult using reason. The charts are your only friends. I am very fond of the RSI indicator. The stochastics work well when going sideways in the 20/80 zones. here's a good example showing what a strong trend looks like.
