I was discussing the matter of can we trust US government figures anymore with a neighbor who is a HQ economist of one of South America's largest banks. He says they are concerned that the current admin will release impossible economic figures soon.
Deficit Projected to Top $1 Trillion Starting Next Year
- Thread starter Tony Stark
- Start date
I was discussing the matter of can we trust US government figures anymore with a neighbor who is a HQ economist of one of South America's largest banks. He says they are concerned that the current admin will release impossible economic figures soon.
The GAO and CBO are pretty reliable with career employees, they won't allow shenanigans.
Transportation metrics, including the Dry Baltic Index for maritime, Load to truck ratios, and excess uncovered truckload metrics are still very strong and are near historic levels in spite of normal annual seasonal slowdown related to the auto industry model year changeover. The transportation industry reflects current conditions in manufacturing and international trade very well.
Expect unbelievable economic numbers to be coming out of the US for an extended period. Unlike some of the media's stories, these numbers will not be fake.
Yeah.. probably right just.. he knows that and I did not suggest it. They guy is very measured. He owns a very elderly and well behaved pet beagle
It may take less than people think to alter the figures.
It will stand out, won't match expectations from other sources however.. He had said that looking for signs of altered data is one of many red flags they routinely scan for in small low rated countries and they are proactively watching the US now.
Not exactly. Compare July 2018 with July 2017. Also consider there is huge additional capacity in freighters caused by massive orders about ten years ago.
Trade war expectations can do that.
I read what he just wrote a minute after you posted that chart also. Isn't the internet great.
Good point. There is certainly a portion of recent business activity that is related to trying to beat the tariffs before they take hold.