Default by the US government is no longer unthinkable

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/09/21/ccliam121.xml

Here comes the next move. Dollar is going to collapse. Once the train leaves this station it will not be coming back.

But, in the run-up to the US election in November, Democrats in Congress - and even some Republicans - may decide they're simply not having it. How much more can the US taxpayer take? It sounds insane, but the liabilities being taken on by the Fed and the US Treasury are now so enormous that the government itself could default. No?

Check out the chart showing the recent spikes in the US 10-year credit default swap. In other words, the market is now pricing-in the genuine possibility that the US will struggle to pay-back some of its long-term T-bills.

That possibility is still deemed to be quite low. But the ultimate financial question - until recently, unthinkable - is now being asked. Yes siree, the mighty US government could default. That's how much the world has changed.
 

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the US is a roughly 12 -14 trillion dollar economy off the top of my head. we dwarf all other economies. a few hundred billion here or there is chicken feed
 
What scrip are you advocating using?

Euro's? Turkish Lira? Panamanian Balboa? Mexican Peso? Indian Rupee? Renminbi?

PAB is 1:1 exchanged to the dollar... So it will tank.

What currency has the most liquidity and value independent of the dollar? Not many... if any...

How about a relatively closed and protected currency like the Indian Rupee?

Reality is although cash is king the world has gone plastic... Electronic currency is the next natural evolution. E-money that loads on your cell phone... exchanging like text messages...

No wire fees... just a centralized clearing system...

Back to the default issue: never gonna happen.
 
EURUSD is little changed from Fridays sprint... 1.4503

USD will fare terribly into next year - December 2008 will be very interesting.
 
I exchanged all USD in my account to some other currency pegged to USD immediately after I saw this post.


Impossible is nothing.
 
Quote from niceneasy:

the US is a roughly 12 -14 trillion dollar economy off the top of my head. we dwarf all other economies. a few hundred billion here or there is chicken feed
GDP is near USDtrn14, debt is near USDtrn 10.

i have no idea what to think about the whole bailout.
business as usual? crisis done? FED policy as good as
ever, meaning will be continued with minor changes
here and there?

jim rogers predicted the current crisis and shorted the
twins at around 70. he now predicts the FED is out of
business within a decade or two. i find both tough: to
believe this opinion and to dismiss it. but i learned in
this business that the guys who make the unlikely
calls and are right more often than they are not, are
... well, smart.

i guess we will return to normal right now. in a few
months this all is history. will it make a difference if
the US have a percent or two more debt in relation
to GDP? probably not. will the doomsday prophets
finally be right, one day? you know when you are
there. before you don't.
 
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