Quote from ptt:
I am enjoying your thread, very nice mix of psychology and method. How do you trade momentum breakouts, what TF etc.?
***Note*** The methods I use are simple and effective when intraday trading. NOTHING new; same thing everyday. I do have a positive expectancy because I am able to hold through a bit of 'backing and filling' alot better than 95% of daytraders.
I consider my real edge to be my trading discipline and trade management and proper position sizing and my absolute indifference to any and all trades I execute throughout the day.
I suggest those with a potentially profitable one or two trading setups to use volume charts intraday and sim trade that setup(s) 800 times; then you'll KNOW if you have an edge.
Don't ever piss away money because of FEAR of missing out; nope. That was my 1st post in this thread.
As everyone knows by now--my urges to overtrade are satiated by
a) Teeter Inversion Table therapy (when I am itching to take a trade that isn't 100% in accordance with my trading plan)
b) Having fun with young women on a near daily basis
Good points {1 & 2}: Not from me but from an ex-floor trader.
1) Don't confuse bias with emotions. You can't eliminate your emotions, nor should you. You just have to keep them from becoming destabilizing. If you don't feel the pain of a loss then you will become desensitized to losing, and your financial survival will be tenuous. And, in many ways large profits are even more insidious, than large losses, because they cause overconfidence, and a false sense of ability.
The last thing you want to think about when you are learning how to trade is how much money you are making. What you do want to think about is how to maximize the chance of making money. Once again, its about the process, and not the outcome.
The Trader's Attitude
Focused (on the trade only)
Confident (in your methodology& risk management)
Objective (Unbiased)
Patient ( to maximize profit)
Disciplined ( in your trade management)
Emotionally Stable ( treat winning and losing the same)
Flexible (admit when you're wrong)
2) Patience
Patience is a subject whose importance is not to be underestimated, nor taken for granted. The primary reason for my success as a floor trader was execution edge, reduced commissions, and access to customer order flow. The major factor that slowly eats away small retail accounts, is not that the retail trader is inevitably wrong the market, but that they can't stay ahead of their own transaction costs. This takes into account commissions and execution slippage. As a pit trader I was on the other side of the execution slippage, and commissions were a non-factor.
A theme that consistently runs throughout a lot of novice threads is the overriding concern to make current positions more likely to succeed, always to the detriment of long-term performance. Once again, its the the natural tendency to maximize the number of winning trades, rather than the desire to maximize the chance of gain. These instinctive preferences run counter to perhaps the most fundamental principle of successful trading: Cut your losses and let your profits run.
Asymmetrical responses are common in trading and are often counter-intuitive. If the price moves close to a stop point, the trader will automatically think about moving his stop out to give the trade a little more room, but will not allow such flexibility with a winning trade, and will prematurely book the profit, before it turns into a loss. Decision theorists have demonstrated that people consistently prefer to lock in a sure win rather than accept a gamble with a higher expected payoff. Unfortunately, what works in the short term is nearly the opposite of what works in the long term.
The market likes to lull you into a false sense of security of high success rate techniques, which in the short term might work, but which often lose disastrously in the long run. The trader often compounds and exacerbates the problem, because their natural instincts will also mislead them in trading. These tendencies will make it increasingly more difficult to overcome transaction costs, especially when trying to scale your trading.
Therefore, the first step in succeeding as a trader is reprogramming behavior to do exactly the opposite of what feels good and comfortable, and to do what is correct and right. Patience is certainly an integral component in the formula for achieving this result, if not the most important. Its acquisition was the most important factor contributing to my successful transition from the floor to screen based trading.
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PTT,
One of the specific approaches I use to trade 'momentum' breakouts is with
a) Keltner Bands
Offset multiplier 0.8
Period 10
I use 4 time frames (volume) and take the Momentum Breakouts on the middle timeframes (intraday trading).
For example the 3x stochastic uses data points that go back 3x as far as those of the normal ("1x") stochastic.
The idea is to trade in the direction of the longer time frame indicator but trigger off of the cyclic highs, lows and reversals of the shorter time frame indicator.
I need confirmation on the 'bar' that 'floats' above the keltner channel completely w/ a timeframe 3X's higher w/confirmation of either stochs or macd.
One can either then buy @market for a 1:2+ risk/reward OR wait for a 45% pullback on the 'breakout 'float' bar OR one can wait for a pullback of the 9/30 ema's and require a CLOSE below/or above the 9 period ema (w/30 ema agreement); either buying or selling.
Check out
http://www.trading-naked.com/Setups.htm &
www.efuturevision.com
Ask Rick Monteith about the 'OKC' (outside Keltner channel) trade setups.
I could show anyone interested all of this but believe me the 2 websites I referenced are MUCH easier to get more background on.
Besides, every trader takes 'approaches' and makes them their own w/ a solid 'framework' built around any positive-expectancy trading method or pattern.
'Trade what you see' and MASTER one setup at a time; before you know it you'll be walking out your door w/some shekels in your pockets nearly every day.
peace
hedvig