Decreasing interest rates, increasing unemployment and high bullish sentinment?

Quote from Gordon Gekko:


p.s. who cares what those people say on tv, anyway...
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Now this is one smart cat.....

RATINGS, RATINGS, RATINGS......cnbc, bloomberg all have to put food on their plates....and their ratings increase dramactically when the getting gets good...doesnt matter if we are in shambles, it only matters that they are squeezing my nuts sooo freaken hard.......they are starting to worry me.... :D
 
Quote from Camaguey:

The current economic and market conditions do raise questions:
Why should anyone buy in now, given the current conditions and valuations? The average P/E's of the S&P still seem to be floating well above 30 (on par w/ late 90's bubble), the economy is looking shaky at best and interest rate hikes seem to be 9 to 15 months away? In other words, why are "investors" willing to play a high risk game w/ way over priced investments?
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Because they aren't overpriced any more if earnings go up.
But the high bullish sentiment scares me.
And there are a couple of questions:
How about the debt? Will it be paid off by an inflation and a falling dollar? What about the European economy if the Euro/$ is so high?

I wonder how the US-economy can grow long term with all the dept.
 
Stock market is not real economy it is liquidity and hype. You are betting on economy like on a horse but it is the manipulation of bookmakers that sell you the tickets that make the price of the tickets fluctuate not the horse by himself.

Quote from daydreaming:

I'm having a hard time when I watch CNBC, Bloomberg TV and listen to Wall Street brokers. How can they be so bullish? How come no one says that we are in a bad economic environment because interest rates are going down, unemployment rate going up and federeal and local governement deficits out of control? On top of that, the geopolitical situation didn't improve that much after all the good efforts and money spent during the past couple years. I don't expect everybody to be bearish or negative, but I would like to listen to more bipartisan interpretations of the economy.
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Quote from Camaguey:

The current economic and market conditions do raise questions:
Why should anyone buy in now, given the current conditions and valuations? The average P/E's of the S&P still seem to be floating well above 30 (on par w/ late 90's bubble), the economy is looking shaky at best and interest rate hikes seem to be 9 to 15 months away? In other words, why are "investors" willing to play a high risk game w/ way over priced investments?

Currently I have no inclination to speculate w/ longer term "investments" (trading this uptrend on the dailies seems too risky despite some of the rosiest charts I've ever seen). Tech in particular seems downright absurd. (Personal favorite is the Chinese net sector: NTES, SOHU, SINA w/ PE's close to 1000. I can just imagine waking up to a 30% correction.).

The higher it climbs, the faster it will fall I guess. Looking forward to that big short (if it ever arrives)...

Thoughts?
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Technical Analysis BUY signals...
Candlestick patterns suggesting there's more to these moves...
news stories of Bond/Bund/YP Bond monies shifting into stocks...

greater fool theory...
trading experience...

quite a number of reasons to be buying here, and momentum trading up with the market just like everyone else is doing
 
I would be curios to know how we are doing in 1967 dollars? I can't figure out how the unemployment and deficits in Calif are so bad while housing is always setting new highs?

Anyway, I suggest anyone who daytrades, not listen to things like CNBC as it can really adversely effect your objectivity while trading the short term moves.
 
Looking at a ten year weekly chart of the dow - s&p- nasdaq - etc. and I suppose that this could be considered a reasonable bounce - with more to come even. :D but hey, even if it's illogical, it can stay illogical for quite some time.
 
Quote from daydreaming:

I'm having a hard time when I watch CNBC, Bloomberg TV and listen to Wall Street brokers. How can they be so bullish? How come no one says that we are in a bad economic environment because interest rates are going down, unemployment rate going up and federeal and local government deficits out of control? On top of that, the geopolitical situation didn't improve that much after all the good efforts and money spent during the past couple years. I don't expect everybody to be bearish or negative, but I would like to listen to more bipartisan interpretations of the economy.
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The USA is one big lottery-based culture now... little integrity and not much veracity in anything you here on TV from talking heads... pro or con.. many many citizens values are significantly based upon money and greed. Witness all the inane reality shows wherein love and dating and romance is now connected to millions of dollars!

And those get rich EASY infomercials.

Anyone think that is hyperbole or I am off-based then no further explanation of mine would do much good for you and your distorted value system of meaning and purpose! IMHO. The market remains a symbol of our insane declining sense of reasonable priority of important values... over and above money. Much of that B.S. arising from 9/11 and the past three years in the market.. about re-orienting to more enduring values... was obviously a bunch of hogwash.

The frauds and cheats and scam artists are still alive and well and living in New York and on Wall Street. And many of the public want to get theirs too, at any cost to the fabric to what the US used to stand for.

I'm all for getting what you can... the only difference is in my ideal USA one has to EARN it the old fashioned way... by working smart and hard, and yes, even some sacrifice fo others.

Not scamming others.

Guess I'm in the foolish minority. In fact I bet not many understand or agree with my basic sentiment!

:eek:


Ice
:cool:
 
Quote from iceman1:



The USA is one big lottery-based culture now... little integrity and not much veracity in anything you here on TV from talking heads... pro or con.. many many citizens values are significantly based upon money and greed. Witness all the inane reality shows wherein love and dating and romance is now connected to millions of dollars!

And those get rich EASY infomercials.

Anyone think that is hyperbole or I am off-based then no further explanation of mine would do much good for you and your distorted value system of meaning and purpose! IMHO. The market remains a symbol of our insane declining sense of reasonable priority of important values... over and above money. Much of that B.S. arising from 9/11 and the past three years in the market.. about re-orienting to more enduring values... was obviously a bunch of hogwash.

The frauds and cheats and scam artists are still alive and well and living in New York and on Wall Street. And many of the public want to get theirs too, at any cost to the fabric to what the US used to stand for.

I'm all for getting what you can... the only difference is in my ideal USA one has to EARN it the old fashioned way... by working smart and hard, and yes, even some sacrifice fo others.

Not scamming others.

Guess I'm in the foolish minority. In fact I bet not many understand or agree with my basic sentiment!

:eek:


Ice
:cool:
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Great post.......Very good theory on our recent rally..
 
wallstreet brokers just want to stimulate volatility.... so for now it's on the up side. It's when there's no action that brokers are at a loss.
 
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