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Charted: Declining Birth Rates in the Most Populous Countries (1950-Today)
June 3, 2024 By
Marcus Lu
Charted: Declining Birth Rates in 6 Major Countries
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Birth rates are falling in the six most populated countries in the world, though at different speeds.
This graphic shows the annual births per 1,000 people in the world’s six largest countries by population. The data is from the
UN World Population Prospects (2022) and has been compiled by
Our World in Data.
The Global Decline in Fertility Rates
Fertility rates are declining in most places. According to the UN, in 1990, the average number of births per woman globally was 3.2. By 2019, this had fallen to 2.5 births per woman; by 2050, it is expected to decline further to 2.2 births.
Notably, a fertility level of 2.1 births per woman is necessary to avoid a national population decline over the long run (not including net immigration).
China’s birth rate has fallen the fastest in recent years among the countries highlighted here. The country registered
7.6 annual births per 1,000 people in 2021, compared to
24.4 in 1990 and
41.0 in 1950.
Year China India Indonesia Nigeria Pakistan U.S.
1950 41.0 43.8 40.6 45.6 43.7 22.8
1960 29.8 42.5 44.5 46.1 45.7 22.7
1970 38.3 39.5 39.9 46.7 43.5 18.2
1980 22.3 36.2 33.6 47.5 43.5 15.9
1990 24.4 31.8 25.5 43.8 43.1 16.7
2000 13.8 27.0 21.9 43.5 35.8 14.5
2010 13.3 21.4 20.2 42.1 32.1 13.0
2020 8.6 16.6 16.6 37.5 28.0 10.9
2021 7.6 16.4 16.4 37.1 27.5 11.1
This trend suggests that China could face challenges similar to those faced by Japan, which has a vast senior population and significant economic and social implications.
The U.S. registered
11.1 annual births per 1,000 people in 2021, compared to
16.7 in 1990 and
22.8 in 1950. It’s worth noting, however, that the U.S. also adds people to its population through
net immigration each year, unlike some other countries in the above dataset.
Nigeria, with the highest birth rate on our list, registered
37.1 annual births per 1,000 people in 2021, compared to
43.8 in 1990 and
45.6 in 1950.
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