Deck the Halls with Boughs of Holly: the Mother of All Christmas Rallies is Almost Here

T

Thor

Today is possibly the last day of this down move. :D
3 possibilities.

1. A reversal is coming either in the last 2 hours of trading today

2. A gap up on Tues

3. The reversal takes place after 11:30 on Tues

My money is on a reversal on Tues after 11:30, but there is going to be a lot of news which can distort the time of the reversal so use your own judgement as well whether to get in today or later.

The breakout is going to be humungous. :strong::strong::strong::strong::strong::strong::strong::strong::strong::strong::strong::strong:

Here's how to get the maximum bang for your buck. VIX 20 puts of Dec 14 were 0.07 on Friday. By afternoon, they should come down to about 0.05 if the Dow keeps going down.

VIX options are normally good for a 10x to 20x as long as the timing is right. :cool:

Alternatively, SPY 400 calls exp Dec 12,13,14 are all around 0.10 to 0.14 so choose carefully.

Back up the truck. :D



Dow Jones +61.0 +0.18%

S&P 500 +12.9 +0.33%

Naz +40.7 +0.35%
 
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maxinger said:

Plan to stop trading during the last week of the year.
It is the worst time to trade.
More...

Not sure I agree. For day trades, prolly true.
but for week or longer trades, there is a phenomenon whereby a lot of institutional money exits at years end to book losses. The first week or so of the new year is the most reliably up times of the year as the big money collectively eases back into various positions. Note: the move is not huge, but it is up a high percentage of times (can't remember exactly - 70% at a guess).
Sadly, I can't remember where I read the study.
 
misterkel said:
Not sure I agree. For day trades, prolly true.
but for week or longer trades, there is a phenomenon whereby a lot of institutional money exits at years end to book losses. The first week or so of the new year is the most reliably up times of the year as the big money collectively eases back into various positions. Note: the move is not huge, but it is up a high percentage of times (can't remember exactly - 70% at a guess).
Sadly, I can't remember where I read the study.
More...

I was talking about day trading.
Of all the weeks, the last week of the year is the very very worst week for day trading.
This is the time the earth spins very very slowly.



Over the past few decades, I rarely trade during the last week of the year.

However, the lazy lazy professional writers
who are not professional traders
would talk about year-end dressing and all those
garbage worthless useless nonsense.

On 2nd Jan 2023, be on high alert to trade.
 
The only move I didn't factor in happened. :banghead:

It never went below Friday's low and doesn't seem to be in any mood to do so which is bad because sometimes one step backwards is necessary in order to take 20 steps forward.

I'm getting in at the open with some SPY calls. Hopefully, some news comes in to continue driving the move or else it is going to fizzle out after a few days. :caution:

Dow Jones +194.0 +0.57%

S&P 500 +21.5 +0.54%

Naz +68.6 +0.59%
 
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