December-January; serious question

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EMini-Player

Where do you guys see the market headed from mid-December till the end of January? Currently, my 401K is spread among mostly tech stocks and is up over 30% for the year. I'm considering locking in these profits; and switching to something more secure like T-Bills for the next couple of months. But at the same time, I hear a lot of talk of DOW crossing 10K and don't want to miss a rally in stocks. I can only make a change in my positions this week. If not, I'm locked until end of January.

What do you guys think I should do?

-Fast
 
Quote from Fast_Trader:

Where do you guys see the market headed from mid-December till the end of January? Currently, my 401K is spread among mostly tech stocks and is up over 30% for the year. I'm considering locking in these profits; and switching to something more secure like T-Bills for the next couple of months. But at the same time, I hear a lot of talk of DOW crossing 10K and don't want to miss a rally in stocks. I can only make a change in my positions this week. If not, I'm locked until end of January.

What do you guys think I should do?

-Fast
More...

Take the 30% and run like a thief in the night.
 
Scale out, let some ride. Its never wrong to take profits. And the market, especially for a 401k, will always be there tomorrow.

Sell rallies, buy dips.
 
Here is my thinking but this is TRUELY A GUESS.

First, this is a bull market that should carry the averages to new all time highs in 2004 before any chance of ending.

Shorter term, the market could bounce off Dow 10,000 in the next few days and have a couple weeks of consolidation/retracement after reaching that level.

Then, the last week or so of the year we will have a strong rally carrying the market through 10,000 Dow fueled by the fact that no one wants to take long term gains until next year.

After, January 1st the market may have a couple days of new recent highs but then a sharp correction may start. How steep or how long is anyone's guess but the market will recover to new all time highs by late spring.

I think the risk of missing a strong market should take precidence over the risk of getting caught in a sharp decline for the next few months.

I also think Al Queda will try to derail Bush's re-election but won't act until next summer or fall if we get through Christmas unscathed.

Personally I won't trade blindly on these assumptions but will keep them in the back of my mind as the market shows them to be valid or in error. You can decide for yourself how you might be able to use these thoughts or dismiss them entirely.
 
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