Conditions is what influence price (more or less). Price is ... Often : Meaningless.you have to explain your definitions beforehand
Debunk Targets
- Thread starter Apophenia
- Start date
u talking about two different things:
conditions that influence the trader or the price?
Wow. You get into a complex area. What is price if it's not an interaction of traders ? But I talk about conditions that influence price.
who cares what influences it?
i was talking about conditions that influence trader to make a trade
and it its is not the price per se, but form of the market
I care about conditions that influence the price. Because it puts the odds in my favor. And you also you do care. If a condition affects you but not the market ... Then you won't be in sync. You don't buy because it's sunny outside. Why ? Because it's not a condition that the market cares about.
Yes it's not the price in itself. It's about affects. We get to buy or sell at certain price but there is another reason behind (Either a support, an indicator, a rejection ...) Actually what I meant is that there are better reasons than others. The conditions (IF -> Then). Sorry for all the confusion.
I took the total of 10 random outcomes (-1,1), 10 000 times (Unbounded). From there I've created two other series by overlooking the outcomes > 5 (TP Bounded) or < -5 (SL bounded).
So my results are BS for two things
- Took total of 10 outcomes which means TP or SL may have been hit but not taken into consideration
Exemple {1,1,1,1,1,1,-1,-1,-1,-1}
Total is 2 whereas 5 (TP) have been hit.
- Overlooked outcomes greater than 5 for TP Bounded and outcomes lesser than -5 for SL Bounded.
Therefore some outcomes are actually missing whereas they should be added to 5 for TP Bounded and -5 for SL Bounded.
I'll do it again and post the results.
Bottom line should be the same but with less differences.
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Gotta love stuff like this that tries to debunk what we actually do on a daily basis. I couldn't care less what statisticians say...I know what happens in actual trading.
It's always good to try to debunk things. However if it's an harmful practice / routine then you don't really need stats to prove it's BS / harmful ^^ I am a smocker I know what I am talking about. I am not a statistician but I enjoy using it by keeping it simple.
Conditions are informations that shape the probability distribution. Not everyone will ask the same. Not every conditions are worth the same. If I ask you what XYZ is likely to do from there then you'll ask for conditions / information. What's the time frame ? Is there a trend ? From what time frame ? What's the volatility ? Is there news coming ? Bla bla bla.