Dealing with Trend days vs Range days: Psychology and Pulling the Trigger

Why not put a standing order away from the market (or a standing bracketed order) where you "believe" the market will trade through on the way to your "target," thereby alleviating your trader anxiety with regards to pulling the trigger. Then you just manage your stops. The market will pull the trigger for you. You'd be surprised how well this can work to see the market trade through your order and instantly make your trade profitable. The key as mentioned is then your exit.

Just a thought...
 
Hello,

Here's some info on how I would have done it


07:36 I would have done nothing, I have no confirmation on which direction the market will be moving.

08:05 would be where I would execute my movement mainly because downtrend has been confirmed, you are under 50 ma ,

Consolidation appears, when consolidation appears, that is the place to be placing your bet, while it may jump back to 116 10, it doesn't matter becacuse its consolidating chopping around at 116 08 , no use of predetermined points if its chopping around 116 08, so I would set my order in at 116 08 or 116 07 , stop 116 09, a notch above the highest point in consolidation.

That would be where I would place my "bet"
emphasis on the bet.
 
edgehunter,
although I agree with you exits are important,

I disagree that they are not as important as ENTRIES

Without effective entries, your EXISTS will not fall in place correctly.

I think order of importance are

1. Entries & Stops
2. Exits (Profit taking)

Where entries and stops are of equal and high importance.
 
Quote from johnpinochet:

I've been trading the 30 year T bond futures contract off and on since 1994. I count approximately 6 account fundings and 5 account closeouts. I'm on my 6 attempt now...

0732 - 0735 Market is playing with my key number at 116 10. Now what? I have a short bias. My 4 charts are showing a downtrend, but they are still positive. This could be a fake move. Do I buy or do I sell? If I sell, the market could go back up to 116 17. Now is the time to buy! But wait. I've decided to not trade against the 60 min and Daily trend. I decide not to buy, and due to my overwhelming desire to buy, I decide not to sell. I sit out...

0824 Market hits 115 29. Low of the day. All 4 charts are screaming up move coming, probably to 116 02. Short then?...

0850...Perhaps I should wait for an attempt to 116 10? I decide to wait. As I wait, I think about the money I'm leaving on the table by maintaining a bias to one side only. Oh, well...

0928 Market hits 116 10. Do I short now?...

Anyone with experience in this care to comment?
More...

Hi johnpinochet,

Based on what you posted...

Your obviously trading without a defined method that contains specific criteria for entering a trade.

I also notice other things (lines) on your price chart and stuff at the bottom of your chart.

You didn't say anything about that.

Why not ???

Are they clouding the picture for you...causing you to second guess whatever it is your doing ???

If they have no impact on your trade decisions...why have them on your chart.

However, if they do provide info...design specific criteria for their use which takes me into my below comments.

My point...if your going to use s/r levels...

You must develop a strategy that contains specific criteria that needs to occur when price hits your s/r numbers.

If those specific criteria are not verified when ZB reaches your key numbers.

No trade.

If those specific criteria are verified when ZB reaches your key numbers.

Enter a trade.

Simply, that will remove all that subjectivity you currently have in your trading of ZB.

I'll repeat it...

You do not have a well-defined strategy for trading ZB.

If you did...you wouldn't be asking the above questions in your quotes.

This may explain why you've blown out so many accounts.

Geesh...the way you explain how you use s/r levels is a little scary (your trading on emotions or feelings and not via specific rules).

NihabaAshi
 
You are being overly analytical because of fear. You are analysing to cover up the fear.

The only way THROUGH (not around) is to tie your balls to a trade with a pre-set target and feel the fear in your stomach and body (with a dollar risk to your stop that is a small percent of your account (like 0.5-1.0%)).

Your focus should be on exits, not because they are more important, but because it seems you have been focused on entries and haven't gotten anywhere. So try something different - it may work for you psychologically.

Rod
 
I doubt a single person that has replied to this thread makes a living trading the interest rate futures, and most of the answers you are going to get are of the "I have no idea what I am doing but read the Mark Douglass book" veriety, or, "put up a bunch of lines on your screen based charting program" and based on those lines try to make money.

"Insanity is the mental state of doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result." If in those six times trading the interest rate complex, it sounds as if you have not dramatically changed your approach, there is something wrong there. The markets have consistently told you that your approach is wrong. Think about that...

I am indirectly aware of one of the biggest bond/note traders in the world, and all the size traders on the planet know this guy. All I can tell you is that AFAIK, most of these guys make a large percentage of their money not by playing the bonds directionally, but by putting on huge size and playing the entire yield curve against each other as spreads. And not just US, but US against other international bonds, i.e., US ten against the German Bund etc. Learning to do trade in this style correctly is an art, but if you don't even understand how the techniques involved in doing that, imo you are probably toast.

Read this book cover to cover and understand it like the back of your hand. It is a good place to start:

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/t...102-8584047-5039303?v=glance&s=books&n=507846

The CBOT also has courses that you can take from professional traders that are probably really helpful.

Finally, I will tell you that bond traders are probably the smartest and best capitilized traders in the world, and well, good luck.

nitro
 
That looks like an interesting book. They have a hardcover edition $20 cheaper but it is listed as third edition whiile the softcover version is called revised edition. Which one did you read? I wonder if theres any major difference between the two?I dont really intend to trade them but I would like to understand the interrelationship better.
 
Quote from easyrider:

That looks like an interesting book. They have a hardcover edition $20 cheaper but it is listed as third edition whiile the softcover version is called revised edition. Which one did you read? I wonder if theres any major difference between the two?I dont really intend to trade them but I would like to understand the interrelationship better.
More...
I have the hard cover revised edition.

Back to my mini-vacation :D

nitro
 
why in the world would you be trading (i'm assuming the contract is the ZB/31.25/tick?) when you've consistently lost so much?

(i'm not trying to sound like a jerk but you need this)

HELLOOOO MCFLY!!!

TRADE SOMETHING THAT IS MORE FORGIVING

like the ym/$5/tick...sheesh.


start with something easy where there isn't as much pressure.

it reminds me of the people who try trading larger size when they haven't even confirmed to themselves that they can handle 1 ct. IF YOU CAN"T TRADE 1 CT profitably or even BE....how in the world do you expect to do so on 3 or 5 cts???

common sense dictates that you should do something DIFFERENT this time around, perhaps a LOT of things different.
but please, above all else, move out of the bonds.
 
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