daytrading price targets

Hello mikeriley,

Do you think it is possible to:

1. Make $200 per day trading NQ everyday per year?

Thank you,
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Hello SimpleLikeMe,

No idea why you're asking this question, since
I've already given you a trading strategy that
works every day on NQ. If I'm not mistaken
I believe I've posted at least 3 strategies,
all of which work very well.
 
That is excellent advice. The best piece of trading advice I have encountered on this forum and probably anywhere in social media. Every word of it: from "take 30 days" and "study one market" and "write down you observations" to "give names for repeated patterns." And most especially "sit on your hands and trade nothing."

"Sit on your hands and trade nothing."

Best trading advice on the internet. Almost no one will do it. And on any given day you would be hard pressed to find any takers whatsoever.

A great old timer once said that "There are those who think they are studying the market, when all they are doing is studying what someone has said about the market, not what the market has said about itself."

And it is here that the fate of most hopeful profiteers is sealed to remain forever failures. As you so well concluded your post:

Would it be easier to overcome fear and gain confidence based on another indicator, or based on your repeated study of price action?Infinitely easier to melt fear and develop confidence your way than that of the common initiate. Another great old timer said that "it is literally true that millions come easier to a trader after he knows how to trade than hundreds did in his day of his ignorance." Your way, Mr. Riley, is the way one learns how to trade.

Most people never study the market. Instead of taking 30 days to observe and learn what the market will tell anyone willing to learn its language, the aspiring trader goes to twitter or to an internet trading forum and asks "how do I set profit targets?" Or, "Do you think I can make $200 a day trading the NQ?"

If only more novices would seek to replace what others say and have said with their own knowledge derived from their own observed experience of what the market is saying about itself.

@mikeriley your excellent post is far fewer words and far, far better than mine praising it. A breath of fresh air to have read it. Thank you.
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Hi there Rams Fan,
A very good friend of mine who is now diseased
was a futures trader who earned millions. It was
he who gave me this sage advice. I owe a debt
of honor to Doug, he was truly an ole school trader.
 
watch the market for a week and then you'll know where it's going and will understand the market. You'll notice is sometimes stops at prior support levels to become resistance and sometime it just blasts through the area. Sometimes moves fast at the open and drops or sometimes chops about. Some days trends in one direction and some days it doesn't etc
 
44 years of trading, like 100k plus hours of screen time, scalping/day trading S&P/ES and currencies, developing patterns of relationships of price and indicators, there is nothing I have not seen at least twice. Once I get into a trade, know exactly uniform targets, have no emotions, this is a business for me. Backtesting shows what is makeable consistently, home runs seldom occur. One minute systems produce on average 55 trades, 5 minute systems ave 5 trades, timeframes dictate for me risk/reward.

For me it never been about getting the most per trade, it been keeping losses near 4% since risk has always been greater than rewards. Once trade is up so many ticks/so much time, lock in one tick. If after so much time in the hole, new target is one tick.

Scalping/day trading for me has greatest exposed risk, whereas least risk is very long term commodities going against major trends, spending ten years refining hedging knowledge. This type of trading produces home run profits as system will eventually take 5-150 plus trades seeking near extremes. System is short all Indexes near highs. When expected rallies show up, system hedges open profits, trading same concept 30 years but have always improved. System having incredible year already.
  1. Gap Fills and retests.
  2. Round numbers
  3. Daily MAs
  4. Risk to Reward ratios
  5. Pure Price action
Years of charting am good with direction and where price will end up before the close. My last student is in awe of my abilities, but you watch anything long enough, you get to expert levels.
 
LOL true experts let others labeled them as such.

+ + +

Michael Jordan Refused To Be Called The GOAT: "When They Start Comparing Who's The Best Of All Time, I Never Can Accept That."
 
Handle123 said:
44 years of trading, like 100k plus hours of screen time, scalping/day trading S&P/ES and currencies, developing patterns of relationships of price and indicators, there is nothing I have not seen at least twice. Once I get into a trade, know exactly uniform targets, have no emotions, this is a business for me. Backtesting shows what is makeable consistently, home runs seldom occur. One minute systems produce on average 55 trades, 5 minute systems ave 5 trades, timeframes dictate for me risk/reward.

For me it never been about getting the most per trade, it been keeping losses near 4% since risk has always been greater than rewards. Once trade is up so many ticks/so much time, lock in one tick. If after so much time in the hole, new target is one tick.

Scalping/day trading for me has greatest exposed risk, whereas least risk is very long term commodities going against major trends, spending ten years refining hedging knowledge. This type of trading produces home run profits as system will eventually take 5-150 plus trades seeking near extremes. System is short all Indexes near highs. When expected rallies show up, system hedges open profits, trading same concept 30 years but have always improved. System having incredible year already.
  1. Gap Fills and retests.
  2. Round numbers
  3. Daily MAs
  4. Risk to Reward ratios
  5. Pure Price action
Years of charting am good with direction and where price will end up before the close. My last student is in awe of my abilities, but you watch anything long enough, you get to expert levels.
More...

You make a lot of excellent points in that post ... well said.

I use
- prior day's range and ohlc for s/r and targets/price projection
- heavy use of round numbers, eg buy over/sell under, eg buy 22.1 sell 22.9
- trade in a sequence of 2-4 trades with oto orders, eg. buy 22.1 22.3 22.6 sell all 22.9
- gap continuations and fill pivots
- all price action and tape reading, no squiggly lines
- heavy focus on clean, wide range charts
 
sidbunch said:
What are some good ways to predict targets.

One thing that hurts my trading is that even if I get into a good trade (maybe I buy a prior resistance level expecttig it to be support) I always get out at a bad time. Either cutting my winner early and then watching it rally like a bat out of hell, or trying to 'let it run' and then watching it take back what would have been a nice profit as it retraces to my entry price/stop

Some people seem to really have a great idea of where price is going and make such bold predictions that I have no idea how they do it.

Like yesterday near the highs (ES emini) a trader said there was a very high liklihood we'd go all the way down to the market open some 60 points down so he shorted. Even though it didn't QUITE make it that far, it was an amazing call in my eyes. Especially since it looked like a super strong up day at the time. I shorted at a good level too but snatched 6 ES points as price came back into a prior high volume node on the 5min

The same person also shorted the market at the open a few days prior on the 10th of May and had an outrageous downside target that filled! I have no idea what sort of TA these people use

One idea that gives 'targets' is elliott wave although i've never been able to get it to work for me personally

There's also classic chart patterns that give targets I guess (so you spot a h+s pattern and when it breaks you tarket a certain level)

And some people claim to use 'calculations' to tell them where the price is going to go at any given time. Not entirely sure what exact method this is. Maybe something like gann?
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Hello sidbunch,

For profit targets I like to be fixed on all trades.

I choose between 6 and 10 ticks
 
Handle123 said:
44 years of trading, like 100k plus hours of screen time, scalping/day trading S&P/ES and currencies, developing patterns of relationships of price and indicators, there is nothing I have not seen at least twice. Once I get into a trade, know exactly uniform targets, have no emotions, this is a business for me. Backtesting shows what is makeable consistently, home runs seldom occur. One minute systems produce on average 55 trades, 5 minute systems ave 5 trades, timeframes dictate for me risk/reward.

For me it never been about getting the most per trade, it been keeping losses near 4% since risk has always been greater than rewards. Once trade is up so many ticks/so much time, lock in one tick. If after so much time in the hole, new target is one tick.

Scalping/day trading for me has greatest exposed risk, whereas least risk is very long term commodities going against major trends, spending ten years refining hedging knowledge. This type of trading produces home run profits as system will eventually take 5-150 plus trades seeking near extremes. System is short all Indexes near highs. When expected rallies show up, system hedges open profits, trading same concept 30 years but have always improved. System having incredible year already.
  1. Gap Fills and retests.
  2. Round numbers
  3. Daily MAs
  4. Risk to Reward ratios
  5. Pure Price action
Years of charting am good with direction and where price will end up before the close. My last student is in awe of my abilities, but you watch anything long enough, you get to expert levels.
More...


I'm pretty darn good at predicting where price will end up before close of the day for SPY, DJI, AAPL. That is a significant piece that helps me predict what the rest of the day will probably be. But I really would love to be more sure. Any tips?
 
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