daytrading price targets

sidbunch said:
What are some good ways to predict targets.

One thing that hurts my trading is that even if I get into a good trade (maybe I buy a prior resistance level expecttig it to be support) I always get out at a bad time. Either cutting my winner early and then watching it rally like a bat out of hell, or trying to 'let it run' and then watching it take back what would have been a nice profit as it retraces to my entry price/stop

Some people seem to really have a great idea of where price is going and make such bold predictions that I have no idea how they do it.

Like yesterday near the highs (ES emini) a trader said there was a very high liklihood we'd go all the way down to the market open some 60 points down so he shorted. Even though it didn't QUITE make it that far, it was an amazing call in my eyes. Especially since it looked like a super strong up day at the time. I shorted at a good level too but snatched 6 ES points as price came back into a prior high volume node on the 5min

The same person also shorted the market at the open a few days prior on the 10th of May and had an outrageous downside target that filled! I have no idea what sort of TA these people use

One idea that gives 'targets' is elliott wave although i've never been able to get it to work for me personally

There's also classic chart patterns that give targets I guess (so you spot a h+s pattern and when it breaks you tarket a certain level)

And some people claim to use 'calculations' to tell them where the price is going to go at any given time. Not entirely sure what exact method this is. Maybe something like gann?
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No-one knows where the price is going to go. I trade successful without knowing
 
easymon1 said:
How?
I dig your avatar by the way.
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Thanks. I trade volatility only, so in some sense I have a strong intuition on where the levels will go, and I just take whatever price I can get based on the level i think it wont breach. I know lots of people got blown up doing this for years thinking a spike would never happen before march 2020 but i think those were funds with massive piles of money that isnt easy to move. I'm also working on an implementation of a model which perfecly calibrates to spx/vix jointly so I should be able to take on more risk with more confidence when i get that done. basically selling crash insurance to some morgan stanley managers of billions or something, dunno who the counterparty is on the trades. a few times I got surprised but was able to trim the position or hedge and havent got hit yet
 
sidbunch said:
What are some good ways to predict targets.

One thing that hurts my trading is that even if I get into a good trade (maybe I buy a prior resistance level expecttig it to be support) I always get out at a bad time. Either cutting my winner early and then watching it rally like a bat out of hell, or trying to 'let it run' and then watching it take back what would have been a nice profit as it retraces to my entry price/stop

Some people seem to really have a great idea of where price is going and make such bold predictions that I have no idea how they do it.

Like yesterday near the highs (ES emini) a trader said there was a very high liklihood we'd go all the way down to the market open some 60 points down so he shorted. Even though it didn't QUITE make it that far, it was an amazing call in my eyes. Especially since it looked like a super strong up day at the time. I shorted at a good level too but snatched 6 ES points as price came back into a prior high volume node on the 5min

The same person also shorted the market at the open a few days prior on the 10th of May and had an outrageous downside target that filled! I have no idea what sort of TA these people use

One idea that gives 'targets' is elliott wave although i've never been able to get it to work for me personally

There's also classic chart patterns that give targets I guess (so you spot a h+s pattern and when it breaks you target a certain level)

And some people claim to use 'calculations' to tell them where the price is going to go at any given time. Not entirely sure what exact method this is. Maybe something like gann?
More...


Your question is far too generic and demonstrated that is is way to early for you to think about trading real money. First, what kind of trader to you envision yourself to be?...Trends, reversals, trading range bounces, measured moves?

I would advise a study of existing price action scholarship (Brooks, Raschke, Volman, Sperandeo would be examples) followed by a lengthy period of simply watching price develop so you get a sense of price behavior and discovery. Put pivots such as prior day high, low and close and current day open and watch what happens at those levels. The institution's move the markets and you can see where the algo's fire off.

There are as many ways to trade as there are traders as no two traders are just alike. A trend trader might target 2x initial risk or Fibonacci extension targets or front run prior support and resistance levels or measured moves or have trade management rules such as a trend line break or MA cross or prior bar takeout on a higher time frame.

The possibilities are endless but you will not succeed at any until you have a full understanding of the nature of price behavior and that takes time and effort and testing. I won't even touch of the behavior of a trader as that is another vital part of the process. Asking noobie questions on these forums are not the way to learn how to trade unless you have a specific technical question or advise on how to proceed....But understand that you will get some well meaning advice here, some of whom know little or no more than you do and others who are simply full of shit. I wish you well but if you wish to become a trader, you have a lot of work to do.
sidbunch said:
What are some good ways to predict targets.

One thing that hurts my trading is that even if I get into a good trade (maybe I buy a prior resistance level expecttig it to be support) I always get out at a bad time. Either cutting my winner early and then watching it rally like a bat out of hell, or trying to 'let it run' and then watching it take back what would have been a nice profit as it retraces to my entry price/stop

Some people seem to really have a great idea of where price is going and make such bold predictions that I have no idea how they do it.

Like yesterday near the highs (ES emini) a trader said there was a very high liklihood we'd go all the way down to the market open some 60 points down so he shorted. Even though it didn't QUITE make it that far, it was an amazing call in my eyes. Especially since it looked like a super strong up day at the time. I shorted at a good level too but snatched 6 ES points as price came back into a prior high volume node on the 5min

The same person also shorted the market at the open a few days prior on the 10th of May and had an outrageous downside target that filled! I have no idea what sort of TA these people use

One idea that gives 'targets' is elliott wave although i've never been able to get it to work for me personally

There's also classic chart patterns that give targets I guess (so you spot a h+s pattern and when it breaks you tarket a certain level)

And some people claim to use 'calculations' to tell them where the price is going to go at any given time. Not entirely sure what exact method this is. Maybe something like gann?
More...
 
sidbunch said:
What are some good ways to predict targets.

One thing that hurts my trading is that even if I get into a good trade (maybe I buy a prior resistance level expecttig it to be support) I always get out at a bad time. Either cutting my winner early and then watching it rally like a bat out of hell, or trying to 'let it run' and then watching it take back what would have been a nice profit as it retraces to my entry price/stop

Some people seem to really have a great idea of where price is going and make such bold predictions that I have no idea how they do it.

Like yesterday near the highs (ES emini) a trader said there was a very high liklihood we'd go all the way down to the market open some 60 points down so he shorted. Even though it didn't QUITE make it that far, it was an amazing call in my eyes. Especially since it looked like a super strong up day at the time. I shorted at a good level too but snatched 6 ES points as price came back into a prior high volume node on the 5min

The same person also shorted the market at the open a few days prior on the 10th of May and had an outrageous downside target that filled! I have no idea what sort of TA these people use

One idea that gives 'targets' is elliott wave although i've never been able to get it to work for me personally

There's also classic chart patterns that give targets I guess (so you spot a h+s pattern and when it breaks you tarket a certain level)

And some people claim to use 'calculations' to tell them where the price is going to go at any given time. Not entirely sure what exact method this is. Maybe something like gann?
More...

Re-entry signals (based upon key concepts from your original entry into the trade) and better trail stop management.

wrbtrader
 
speedo said:
Your question is far too generic and demonstrated that is is way to early for you to think about trading real money. First, what kind of trader to you envision yourself to be?...Trends, reversals, trading range bounces, measured moves?

I would advise a study of existing price action scholarship (Brooks, Raschke, Volman, Sperandeo would be examples) followed by a lengthy period of simply watching price develop so you get a sense of price behavior and discovery. Put pivots such as prior day high, low and close and current day open and watch what happens at those levels. The institution's move the markets and you can see where the algo's fire off.

There are as many ways to trade as there are traders as no two traders are just alike. A trend trader might target 2x initial risk or Fibonacci extension targets or front run prior support and resistance levels or measured moves or have trade management rules such as a trend line break or MA cross or prior bar takeout on a higher time frame.

The possibilities are endless but you will not succeed at any until you have a full understanding of the nature of price behavior and that takes time and effort and testing. I won't even touch of the behavior of a trader as that is another vital part of the process. Asking noobie questions on these forums are not the way to learn how to trade unless you have a specific technical question or advise on how to proceed....But understand that you will get some well meaning advice here, some of whom know little or no more than you do and others who are simply full of shit. I wish you well but if you wish to become a trader, you have a lot of work to do.
More...

@speedo -- Another Useful and Brilliant Post. Thanks
 
As others have pointed out , it really depends on the time frames and type of trading you are doing. If the trader you follow is using volume/market profile he is going to be looking at previously accepted/rejected value levels - HVN/LVN, POC/VWAP and std dev thereof. If your method depends on getting some larger wins then increase your time scale and look for confluences of daily, weekly and larger dynamic std devs. If you are trading in the same direction as institutional traders you should to see profit taking around 2 std dev of larger time frames.

smart.PNG
 
If you gravitate towards volume profile/poc/vwap/std dev trading here is an example of daily 2 std dev (yellow) and weekly 2 std dev (orange) being breached during RTH. Match that up with a monthly HVN (if there is one) or monthly std dev and you will have some solid levels to exit.

tt.PNG
 
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