Daytrading options

[hilmy83]

Took spx daily closes since 1990: 5000 days

2609 days > 0%
2337 days < 0%
54 days = 0%

Positive days summed 2046.59%
Negative days summed 1901.87%
diff= 144.72%

Again this supports the idea that if you miss those few days of investing, you will lose majority of your gains, or even possible to be in negative territory due to fees/taxes.

To make money trading you need to not only guess right direction for your trading timeframe, but also the entry and stop loss (each its own probability), on a CONSISTENT basis.

It's stuff like this that makes me think trading is all flair and bullshit lol

 

[Temujin79]

Simple: take strikes that are more distant from current spot.
Just simulate with this online tool: https://optioncreator.com

Can you explain or show an example of how to roll an Iron Condor leg(s) when prices move close to the strike price(s)?

 

[Temujin79]

Interesting. Pretty much supports my view here that prices are pretty much a 50/50 odds. In this case it shows a toss up on the close.
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/flip-of-a-coin-but.372081/

If the stock market is trending since inception, it means that you see "fatter" side of the bands, which you kind of do. But it's not by much.

It may be a toss up but when you are selling options there is the premium which tilts the odds in your favor. Take a look at this guy's backtesting of SPX option trades. 50/50 + premium:

https://www.incomeoptionstrading.com/blog/0-dte-spx-iron-condor-returns

 

[earth_imperator]

Can you explain or show an example of how to roll an Iron Condor leg(s) when prices move close to the strike price(s)?

I don't trade your ticker(s) nor your constructs, so I can't help. Maybe someone else can.

 

[Zwaen]

Took spx daily closes since 1990: 5000 days

View attachment 311198

2609 days > 0%
2337 days < 0%
54 days = 0%

Positive days summed 2046.59%
Negative days summed 1901.87%
diff= 144.72%

Again this supports the idea that if you miss those few days of investing, you will lose majority of your gains, or even possible to be in negative territory due to fees/taxes.

View attachment 311199


To make money trading you need to not only guess right direction for your trading timeframe, but also the entry and stop loss (each its own probability), on a CONSISTENT basis.

It's stuff like this that makes me think trading is all flair and bullshit lol

To complement, if you mis the worst 25 days, this will have the same impact, but inverted-verified this. Next, from simple heuristics, the chance of missing a 'good' day equals (somewhat) the chance missing a 'bad day', and both are extremely low (25/5000 or 0.005%) with random picks.

data: spy 1993-today
redline: miss best 25 days
blue line: all days
green line: miss worst 25 days

Same, log-scale:
(first 1200 daily r are same, that's why you see only green line)

 

[getthatintoya]

That's a condor not a butterfly correct?

Yep you said you wanted to flatten the pyramid and that's what i gave you.