I long for the days of old when S&P 500 was in the 300's, had bigger days back then when big S&P traded in nickels and each nickel was $25 and $500 a big point, a four point range is where I learned to trade chop, which I still do each and every day. The market flowed much better, not like the craziness of today's market. I could risk back then 4-5 tics, now it is much tougher. One day we will get back down there, just patience.
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Daytrading ES will totally suck if: (1)S&P hits 500 and a (2) new bull market begins.
- Thread starter aeliodon
- Start date
On the contrary, I believe ES will become more volatile as we go lower. The range might not be as wide but I assure you that there will be some violent whipsaws that will throw you off balance before you can regain your composure. Obviously, successful daytraders will still be able to profit from such crazy moves because the absolute dayrange, from HOD to LOD, might only be 7 points but the relevant dayrange, namely every point from the open to the close, will be large to say the least.Quote from aeliodon:
This is a decent market to daytrade right now but when the next bull market begins and volatility collapses its going to totally suck.
Remember the 10 point ranges when VIX was sub 15 and the S&P was around 1400. That's a 0.7% range.
If the next bull market starts at 500, we're gonna have 3.5 point ranges if VIX falls below 15 again.
Quote from saliva:
On the contrary, I believe ES will become more volatile as we go lower. The range might not be as wide but I assure you that there will be some violent whipsaws that will throw you off balance before you can regain your composure. Obviously, successful daytraders will still be able to profit from such crazy moves because the absolute dayrange, from HOD to LOD, might only be 7 points but the relevant dayrange, namely every point from the open to the close, will be large to say the least.
I'm going to have to say with my limited knowledge I agree with this dude ^^^
<i>"If the next bull market starts at 500, we're gonna have 3.5 point ranges if VIX falls below 15 again."</i>
Having traded thru the past bear-market plunge, which by the way was nowhere near the severity of this one, here's what happened then:
Indexes bottomed in latter 2002 and began rising from there. Subsequent upward macro-trend shifted from wild whipsaws to more deliberate, plodding trend moves intraday. The pure faders got creamed while pure directional traders flourished big-time. Get long in the late morning / early afternoon and hold for big gains in easy fashion.
Mid-2003 saw a gradual contraction of intraday ranges. ES 12pt to 20pt hi-lo was more the norm. 2004 contracted worse. Parts of 2005 and 2006 saw VIX levels near 10 and numerous ES sessions with an entire range of 6+pts to 8+pts hi-lo.
Feb 27th 2007 blew out those doldrums, and volatility increased to a peak in mid-late 2008. Regardless of the VIX levels now, overall price range intraday is a fraction of what we saw in 2008. Regular 60pt to 100pt ES intraday swings aren't possible, because so many stocks have been essentially wiped out.
When the inevitable bottom forms, which is another story in itself, the subsequent rise from there will be sharp & dramatic at first. Then things will slow down, to what degree remains impossible to say.
fwiw, that'll be a long time from now. Worry about trading well here in the moment. The future will arrive in its own time soon enough.
Having traded thru the past bear-market plunge, which by the way was nowhere near the severity of this one, here's what happened then:
Indexes bottomed in latter 2002 and began rising from there. Subsequent upward macro-trend shifted from wild whipsaws to more deliberate, plodding trend moves intraday. The pure faders got creamed while pure directional traders flourished big-time. Get long in the late morning / early afternoon and hold for big gains in easy fashion.
Mid-2003 saw a gradual contraction of intraday ranges. ES 12pt to 20pt hi-lo was more the norm. 2004 contracted worse. Parts of 2005 and 2006 saw VIX levels near 10 and numerous ES sessions with an entire range of 6+pts to 8+pts hi-lo.
Feb 27th 2007 blew out those doldrums, and volatility increased to a peak in mid-late 2008. Regardless of the VIX levels now, overall price range intraday is a fraction of what we saw in 2008. Regular 60pt to 100pt ES intraday swings aren't possible, because so many stocks have been essentially wiped out.
When the inevitable bottom forms, which is another story in itself, the subsequent rise from there will be sharp & dramatic at first. Then things will slow down, to what degree remains impossible to say.
fwiw, that'll be a long time from now. Worry about trading well here in the moment. The future will arrive in its own time soon enough.
Quote from aeliodon:
This is a decent market to daytrade right now but when the next bull market begins and volatility collapses its going to totally suck.
Remember the 10 point ranges when VIX was sub 15 and the S&P was around 1400. That's a 0.7% range.
If the next bull market starts at 500, we're gonna have 3.5 point ranges if VIX falls below 15 again.
Unless human emotions like fear and greed are going to radically change overnight i dont think ranges below 5 are going to be common, they will certainly occur but will be the exception rather than the rule.
High volatility often follows Low and vice/versa so i think at some point ranges will start to contract and they already have compared with a few months ago but just cant see why they would go to such lows even if the S&P falls below 500, or we are in a bull or bear market.