Daytrading Breakouts in the ES

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Quote from Johnny Rotten:

Anyone with half a brain should be able to look at Tuesday's action and say to themselves: a great day to have NOT traded! If you have a method that kept you out of the market on Tuesday then you did a great job. It's as simple as that. But if you insist on trying to "master" such shit days and make money from them, then you are trading for ego not for money. You just become a fool with no discipline or patience.

I'm copying this here to emphasize it. It's just the sort of thing that many who have been here for a while would endorse.
 
Quote from Johnny Rotten:

This one felt nearly perfect to me ....Just about every single rule was fulfilled in the DAX. The ESTX50 hadn't had a lower low than the pivot bar, but that should not have stopped you taking this one. It just looked so good!

Attached.

I didn't take it. Of course it looks good now but at the time I thought, 4:55am outside bar, 5:00am seemed to pull back a bit too much into the ema so as of 5:00am I made the call to walk away and fix some coffee. Goes to figure it probably broke out within 2 minutues after I walked downstairs. I did see the setup coming just found away to talk myself out of it since I already had a loser for the am figured I'd leave it at one trade for the period and try again when US markets open.
 
Quote from Jim Radid:

"I have always been under the belief that any significant pullback in the ES would occur after the ES makes a marginal new high. For example, the slight pullback at the end of the session today came after a mild new high, and double top around 102.10.

My question is: if this turns out to be true, that is, that the ES will fall after making a marginal new high, how can one protect themselves from this false break out? Is it just a discretionary decision?"

Your comments would be appreciated. But I don't want to arse kiss too much, or you'll slap me with groupie status, and i'll have to shoot myself.

Thanks, Jim
I can't see what example you are talking about. Can you provide details i.e. date, symbol, time of bar, price etc. ....
 
Quote from dbphoenix:



I'm copying this here to emphasize it. It's just the sort of thing that many who have been here for a while would endorse.
"Many who have been here for a while" ...oh my God. I must be waxxing philosophical like the bullshit Elite members. Somebody shoot me! The day I get the stamp of approval from those tossers (db excluded) is a sad day indeed :(
 
Quote from Johnny Rotten:

This one felt nearly perfect to me ....Just about every single rule was fulfilled in the DAX. The ESTX50 hadn't had a lower low than the pivot bar, but that should not have stopped you taking this one. It just looked so good!

Attached.

How many setups like this do you have since beginning of this tread ?
Thanks,
Walter
 
Quote from Johnny Rotten:


"Many who have been here for a while" ...oh my God. I must be waxxing philosophical like the bullshit Elite members. Somebody shoot me! The day I get the stamp of approval from those tossers (db excluded) is a sad day indeed :(

Not really. But there are at least a few people here who have recovered from the dreaded trading-for-the-sake-of-trading sickness. They know when to trade and when not to trade. They've also learned to ignore the kiddies who claim to be able to make money out of anything.

I wake up each morning just as enthusiastic as anybody. And I admit to being disappointed if nothing comes up by quitting time. But I don't feel better by taking anything that looks anywhere near decent and throwing away $X.

I've believed for a long time that if traders kept stacks of hundred-dollar bills by their computers and set fire to one or several with each bad trade that they'd soon learn patience and discipline.
 
tuesday 6/17

late afternoon 3pm-4pm

ES hits 102.10, backs off, reaches a marginal new high over 102.10, and backs off more significantly.

Also, I was just commenting that usually, significant corrections come right after indices make marginal new highs.

I'm not a "time bar" trader, but I was just asking if my belief that corrections come after marginal new highs throws a monkey (good word for ET groupies) wrench into day-trading breakouts. Or is it a discretionary decision?
 
Quote from dpanic:



I didn't take it. Of course it looks good now but at the time I thought, 4:55am outside bar, 5:00am seemed to pull back a bit too much into the ema so as of 5:00am I made the call to walk away and fix some coffee. Goes to figure it probably broke out within 2 minutues after I walked downstairs. I did see the setup coming just found away to talk myself out of it since I already had a loser for the am figured I'd leave it at one trade for the period and try again when US markets open.
We're REALLY getting into nitpicky stuff, but when I say I don't like outside bars, I mean I don't like upwards outside bars when going long. But a downwards outside bar doesn't bother me.

When looking for a short, I don't like to see an outside downwards bar, but upwards is OK.

There's just no way I can write down all these nuances into some set of rules because it starts to get convoluted. The core guidelines are the most important - anything else comes from experience. Study 20 of these setups in real-time and you'll start to get a feel for them.
 
Quote from Walther:



How many setups like this do you have since beginning of this tread ?
Thanks,
Walter
I don't know. Look at the date on the first post and look at the charts since then. When in doubt, plow through all the subsequent posts for examples.
 
Quote from Jim Radid:

tuesday 6/17

late afternoon 3pm-4pm

ES hits 102.10, backs off, reaches a marginal new high over 102.10, and backs off more significantly.

Also, I was just commenting that usually, significant corrections come right after indices make marginal new highs.

I'm not a "time bar" trader, but I was just asking if my belief that corrections come after marginal new highs throws a monkey (good word for ET groupies) wrench into day-trading breakouts. Or is it a discretionary decision?
Jim, I don't know what 102.10 is (even assuming a typo). The ES trades over one thousand. But maybe my answer to your question is my post on Page 47?
 
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