Boys boys boys!!Quote from luxor:
Something told me not to take that trade since the pullback at 10:05 was so large. But I did anywayHowever, even if i had not, there was another BB breakout at 10:25, a retracement in the next bar, and what looked like a good trade on the 10:35 bar-- but that failed too. I guess you can't help a choppy day.
Please JR, show us how you handle retracements
lux
I'll leave you alone for 5 mins, and come back and find you've all gone insane. I think a few people need to re-read Page One!
First off, why is anyone charting the ES 24 hours and screwing with the moving average? Did I not say to chart it 09:30 - 16:15 EST only??!! Done this way, the market was in a clear uptrend (as seen by Mov Avg) until at least 10:25 EST, so why anybody was even considering a short is lost on me!
The only remote possibility to sell in my mind was the little setup about 10:25/10:30 EST (a 1 bar pullback). There are reasons to take this trade and reasons not to take it. On the plus side: the pullback bar on the YM did have a higher high and the Mov Avg was down on all four symbols. On the minus side: it's only a one bar pullback (remember I said I prefer 2-6 as ideal) and the ES pullback bar did not make a higher high. But OK let's say that you did sell under the 10:25 EST low ....
Have we not learnt anything about money management in this thread? Who can remember me saying that if the trade is not profitable after four bars I will often scratch it? What page is that comment on?! The way I see this morning, there really wasn't a trade but if there was one, it was selling under the 10:25 low, and had you done this ...you should NOT have lost money - you should have broken even.
Get back to the basics and stop looking for trades that aren't there! What I find interesting is when there really are no trades, the market often does nothing overall. When the market doesn't know which way to go, be thankful you're not in it. Just learn to piss off and come back for the last session or tomorrow. "Looking for" action will kill you.
As for thinking that pullback trading is the solution: forget it! What you need to do instead is master breakouts and learn discipline and patience. You can piss your money away on pullbacks later.
Here's a reminder of some basics:
At the time a pivot low is made, the market must have been moving lower (Mov Avg). I then want to see a pullback of preferably 2-6 bars during which time the Mov Avg does not turn up. With just a little discretion involved via four market analysis! But when the market pulls back with a fucking 45 degree upwards Mov Avg ....forget it ..do nothing & wait for the next pivot!
Attached.
