Daytrading- Big Picture and Volume Analysis

07-15-2008- Pre-Open comments- 7:00 am- Price =1215.00

A big gap down below the latest 1234-1225 bracket.

This overnight activity is signaling only the short side to start, and as stated in a recent post the safest way to even consider being long now, if is lower price from here dries up the patient buyers, or if patient sellers come in and stop the down move (Watch volume).

Also, if price heads straight up from here, it will now have to break and hold above the 1225 bracket low to be meaningful

If a rally to fill the gap takes place, there are a variety of entry techniques to enter short at the right time until proven otherwise as noted.

Key resistance is now at the bracket low 1225 area to start.

Also, will monitor for a trend day down forming, which is an entirely new big picture topic, and it has to do with watchnig the ADV/DEC line and price structure together.

The bottom line is to watch to see if the AD line holds +/- 1300 as the session unfolds, but at some point Ill show more examples of trend days, AD line etc...

It will certainly be interesting to see how price reacts to this first attempted push through the 08 lows.
 

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Quote from EMC2Trader:

07-15-2008- Pre-Open comments- 7:00 am- Price =1215.00

A big gap down below the latest 1234-1225 bracket.

This overnight activity is signaling only the short side to start, and as stated in a recent post the safest way to even consider being long now, if is lower price from here dries up the patient buyers, or if patient sellers come in and stop the down move (Watch volume).

Also, if price heads straight up from here, it will now have to break and hold above the 1225 bracket low to be meaningful

If a rally to fill the gap takes place, there are a variety of entry techniques to enter short at the right time until proven otherwise as noted.

Key resistance is now at the bracket low 1225 area to start.

Also, will monitor for a trend day down forming, which is an entirely new big picture topic, and it has to do with watchnig the ADV/DEC line and price structure together.

The bottom line is to watch to see if the AD line holds +/- 1300 as the session unfolds, but at some point Ill show more examples of trend days, AD line etc...

It will certainly be interesting to see how price reacts to this first attempted push through the 08 lows.
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Like you eluded to earlier and I've taught for years . . . "Price will move in one direction until it oscillates and confrims its latest extreme top or bottom."
 
9:30 CST

The Patient Sellers have halted the down move. This doesnt mean price will zoom up from here, or wont re-test the lows(likely will).

But it definetley changes the short term developments in the market, and if the lows are tested it will be very important to see if this happsns on low volume or not...
 

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07-15-08 Mid day

I mentioned looking at the most conservative place to look to buy this market- a break above consolidation higher, or a move lower with either patient buyers drying up, or patient sellers halting the decline.

Price moved down and the patient sellers halted the decline.

This dosesnt mean price will immediately go higher or lower, but it does mean developments have changed, and the pateint sellers are now back in the tug of war with the patient buyers.

Price started to move to test the lows on very low volume, and this finally cleared the way to look to buy in the most conservative way possible according to the big picture.

Also, we identified the 1225 bracket low reisistance, so it made perfect sense price paused here on the way up.

Again, Volume and Big picture macro price structure together, opened the door for a high probabaility daytrading zone for long trades from the 1208 area up to 1225 using whatever entry rules your trading plan allows for.
 

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Quote from ProfLogic:

Like you eluded to earlier and I've taught for years . . . "Price will move in one direction until it oscillates and confrims its latest extreme top or bottom."
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Prof

Looks like we may be viewing big picture stuff very similarly..I just have to get used to some of your terminology lol...but glad that what Im saying here makes some kind of sense to someone...
 
Quote from EMC2Trader:

........I have taken the Big Picture and Volume information I mention here, and developed a complete EMC2 trading approach which Im sure any of you can read more about if you look for it, or search for it........
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So you're selling something correct?

I think you should at least be honest and announce that you are vendor with a course that you sell for a low low price of $495.
 
Quote from Billybob543:

So you're selling something correct?

I think you should at least be honest and announce that you are vendor with a course that you sell for a low low price of $495.
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Billy,

I have never been dishonest because I have clearly stated I have put this information into a complete trading method for anyone who is interested.

On one hand I’m trying to put out legitimate, helpful information here on this site, and about the method for “free.” Perhaps you and others can see some value in that

Perhaps this information is appreciated by others here, and for anyone that has their own trading style and approach perhaps this information can be of help in some way

Go back and read the posts here, and I guess you can tell me if I’ve said anything of value, above and beyond and approach I also have available.

But yes, I do offer a methodology for trading the ES that I know can be valuable for anyone interested yet I’m not here shamelessly promoting it.

The one thing I will say is that I list every trade for the approach everyday, post a continuing track record, and I think that is very rare to find.

In addition, the low price you mention, is precisely because as a fellow trader, I know I have something very valuable for other traders, and I’m as much interested in others succeeding with this approach as anything else and not wasting their money, and frankly I am very happy that I’ve only gotten extremely positive feedback so far.

I don’t even want to mention some of these things I’ve purchased in the past for a lot more, providing me with a lot less.

For those on Elite who are who trade well now, have their own style, etc, then they really shouldn’t be interested in anything here anyway.

If you want me to be completely upfront, then yes, look up TradingCreations you will see what I have put together

When its all said and done, I work very hard with those who use this approach, and Ill never bother anyone who isn’t interested. I know what I’ve put together is good information but it simply may not be for everyone and that’s fine.

So now that it is clear I also have a trading approach that does go along with the information I am presenting here, if you Billy, and most others are simply offended by this, and the part of the approach I am sharing here on an ongoing basis that I do think has universal value, and feel in some way I am being inappropriate, then I will respectfully stop, because that was never my intention.

Ill simply gauge where to go next by the feedback, and if I have offended anyone here, then I apologize.
 
07-15-08- Follow up

I figured Id at least complete the day I started

The gap down started us out short as described above, and there were some nice short trades. Again, when price is heading down, there are only two conservative ways to consider longs according to the bigger picture.

(1) Patient buyers can dry up below (2) Patient Sellers above can halt the decline, and bring the market into balance before heading higher. We use volume to gauge both or either of these conditions.

Today, Patient Sellers halted the decline, the trading trend turned up, and there were some very nice long trades for the rest of the morning, all the way from the 1208 area to the very expected big picture “bottom of the bracket target” near 1225.

As price moved higher after a pause, and then down later for the same reasons price moved up earlier, there were more good trades as well, and all in all, it was a good trading day.

EMC2 TRACK RECORD FOR THE DAY +42.75
 

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