Day Trading Thoughts For Wed. May 6

[erikrkolodny]

There are various situations in which one should stay away from certain trades. The most common reason is that a trade does not look smooth, i.e. if a stock has been in a range of 10 cents for five hours and one buys the stock at the top of the range, one really cannot expect to garner a quick substantial profit in that situation. When one trades a ‘superliquid’ stock like Microsoft (MSFT) or Intel (INTC) that tends not to move very fast, it is usually quite difficult to latch onto a stock that will go up, say, 20 cents or more in two minutes. However, the most dangerous trade of all is akin to pure gambling- trading a stock which is due to have news out in an imminent timeframe. The stock could have a lot of great features- liquidity, trading near a high or low, the market could be moving in the direction one wants the stock to go, and so forth. But some situations are just too hard to overcome. Recently, shares of Dendreon (DNDN) staged a nice rally in advance of the release of news on its lead drug. On April 28, the stock broke hard from above 20 to 7.50 in mere minutes before trading over 27 after-hours! There was no particular reason why the stock fell, but one could have avoided the whole experience if one was simply aware that news was due. One does not want to be stuck in something because of a halt nor does someone want to lose months worth of income on a ‘fluke.’ The daily epiphany: be aware of major news events that will directly influence a particular stock’s direction- and unless you truly like gambling- remember that sometimes the best thing to do is nothing.

Stock markets overnight were up slightly across the board with the commodities markets quiet. The major news of the night was an article appearing in the “NY Times” which implied that BAC needed more capital. Yet, the stock after dipping to below 10 in the early morning has made a nice comeback as of this writing. An unexpectedly strong read on employment at 8:15AM also provides a bullish signal. This has turned a negative 10 handles on the S&P into a decently strong morning. These are screaming siren calls that this is a very resilient market. Look for an upside bias with the banks (and particularly BAC) as benchmarks. Things will likely change with each rumor of the moment, but the tone is quite strong.


Reiterating-
Please understand that if the ideas do not get to the hoped for set-ups cited below, more often than not, one should not blindly trade the symbol next to said idea.
If the whole story is not there -
If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specifiedIf something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-



Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern

IPCM- closed near a high after great earnings posted

MNKD- closed near a high

SAH- renegotiated debt yesterday and closed near a high

FCH- closed near a high

NCS- closed near a high

FNET- closed near a high

ATRC- posted great earnings which propelled it up 100% in closing on its high

DIS- good earnings

LNC- good earnings

CRL- good earnings

VCLK- good earnings

UDR- good earnings

CEDC- good earnings

AMMD- great earnings

COGT- good earnings

HLX- good earnings

CLF, BRCD- on “Mad Money” last night

FIG, DFS- on “Fast Money” last night

RHB- good earnings

ACOR- great earnings

BYD- decent earnings

ANR- great earnings

BX- good earnings

XTO- good earnings


Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern

LVS- beat earnings slightly, but not convincingly…traded down after-hours last night; watch MGM and WYNN with it

DOW- doing a share offering tonight

SGY- poor earnings

CEPH- poor earnings

ERTS- bad earnings

PBI- bad earnings

PHM- poor earnings

JKHY- bad earnings

JCOM- bad earnings

HRS- terrible earnings

CTX- bad earnings

AGU- bad earnings

CLH- bad earnings

FWLT- bad earnings

GRMN- bad earnings

PWR- bad earnings

RRD- bad earnings

ACAS- atrocious earnings

GM- proposal of reverse stock split now on table

BAC- overnight story in “NY Times” which intimated that BAC needs $34 billion more in capital



Earnings:


WED MAY 6 BEFORE

ACOR AGU ANR

ATW AUXL BVF

BX BYD CEDC

CFL CLH CTB

DSX DVN ENB

FIG FOR FWLT

GRMN HK ID

IRC KWK MGA

MGG MMC OGE

PCG PKD PWR

PXD RRD SNH

TRW TTI WNR

WTR XTO



WED MAY 6 AFTER

APC BAS BKD

CECO CRA CSCO

CXO ECLP EGLE

ENH EPR EQ

EQY EXPD FRT

GDP GXP HME

IDCC MELI MUR

NSR NWS OEH

ONXX OTEX PAA

PRU PVA RBC

REG RIG RIO

SUN SVNT SYMC

THQI TSO USU

WG


Good luck today.

Erik R. Kolodny

 

[EricP]

Erik,

It appears that you put a lot of time in your daily post, and I'm sure you have many followers here on ET that appreciate it. That said, the Journal section might be a better place for your daily thoughts. In fact, you might want to consider continuing to post on a single thread for you ongoing thoughts and questions/discussion instead of creating a new thread every single trading day.

In addition, those following your thoughts will have a much easier time going back in history on the single thread, versus having to jump through the 100's of various Daily Thoughts threads that you've now created. Keep it simple, I would suggest. Create a single thread in the Journal section entitled "Daily Daytrading Thoughts of Erik Kolodny" and update it with a new post each day in the same thread.

 

[Dustin]

I agree, start a journal. Your threads clutter ET.

 

[nazzdack]

Quote from erikrkolodny:
The daily epiphany: be aware of major news events...

"Erik, my "brother", go to the Journal Forum." said God and Jesus in unison.

 

[EricP]

Erik,

Please respond with your thoughts to the post below (or the two, above)? It would be very simple to put your daily thoughts in a single thread of the Journal forum, where they belong. Thanks.

Quote from EricP:

Erik,

It appears that you put a lot of time in your daily post, and I'm sure you have many followers here on ET that appreciate it. That said, the Journal section might be a better place for your daily thoughts. In fact, you might want to consider continuing to post on a single thread for you ongoing thoughts and questions/discussion instead of creating a new thread every single trading day.

In addition, those following your thoughts will have a much easier time going back in history on the single thread, versus having to jump through the 100's of various Daily Thoughts threads that you've now created. Keep it simple, I would suggest. Create a single thread in the Journal section entitled "Daily Daytrading Thoughts of Erik Kolodny" and update it with a new post each day in the same thread.