Day Trading Thoughts For Wed. May 13

E

erikrkolodny

ET Sponsor
It has (seemingly) been a very long time since we’ve had a merger mania. And I don’t really think we’ll have one soon, but there are definitely a few deals here and there coming through the pipeline. Yesterday’s story happens to be the attempted takeover of Foundation Coal (FCL) by Alpha Natural Resources (ANR). The terms of the deal call for it to be an all stock acquisition with ANR paying a ratio of 1.083 shares of its own stock for each share of FCL which based on Monday’s close gave FCL a value of 31.25 (FCL closing price 28.86 X 1.083 shares issued). There are three things worth mentioning here: 1) everyone must understand the deal in order to trade the stocks. There was no cash component to this particular deal, but in many there are. One must understand the basics behind the deal to trade it successfully. There are also various ways to play the deal off of the numbers. First, if the spread gets out of whack on the opening bell, i.e. let’s say ANR opened at 28.86, but FCL opened at 34 instead of 31.25, it indicates that there may be another interested acquirer in the works. One should note if the spread continues to widen one should be long FCL. Another type of trade is to buy the acquirer if it opens lower and goes thru unchanged…for instance, ANR was issuing shares so its stock should have been down. Thus, if it opened negative, but rallied toward unchanged, it’d be a buy the instant it ticked positive. 2) The spread (i.e. difference between the two stocks) should never be exactly correct. Usually, what happens is that the spread is slightly negative because there is a time value involved, i.e. if the deal doesn’t close for six months, there is a calculation for inflation in the spread. 3) Be aware of what is going on. If there’s a deal going on, please know that there is a deal going on. Have I mentioned that it is important to realize what is going on? All it can do is help. Thus, for day traders, making these plays can be very profitable (as it indeed was yesterday), but you’ve got to do some basic homework in the mornings to simply keep up with the newsflow.

Markets in Asia were lightly mixed overnight (most closing within less than 0.5% of unchanged), but the tone in Europe is decidedly negative with every major market down a little over 1%. Gold, oil, and bonds are steady. Today seems to be a continuation of a battle that has recently developed between financials in the news and the techs in the news with the banks down across the board but INTC strength mitigating the weakness somewhat (although most other big cap techs are down slightly as of this writing). Today looks to be a continuation of the recent slop in low trade again; just as yesterday the bias ended up being slightly to the upside for most major sectors but tech, the bias is likely to be notably weaker overall today albeit on quiet turnover. Looks to be another difficult day trading day so pick spots.


Reiterating-
Please understand that if the ideas do not get to the hoped for set-ups cited below, more often than not, one should not blindly trade the symbol next to said idea.
If the whole story is not there -
If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specifiedIf something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-



Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern

AMAT- in-line earnings, but stock generally traded slightly higher after-hours last night until very late; should have strength from INTC but watch out if it bucks INTC's trend

INTC- company sees a slight pickup in second quarter business; company said business is “a little better than expected”

RNN- closed near high of day after a ‘Utrech University’ study noted that it’s Zoraxel could become a new class of drug for treating sexual dysfunction

STEC- closed near a high after posting great earnings

MRGE- closed near a high after signing a deal with a Chinese healthcare company

ULTR- good earnings

SMG- on “Mad Money” last night

TDW- good earnings

DPS- good earnings

Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern

BMC- poor earnings

KRG- announced share offering

SOLR- poor earnings

CLF- announced share offering

PL- announced share offering

GAP- closed near a low on terrible earnings

CTRP- island reversal pattern after posting great earnings

MBI- near complete reversal after posting earnings in closing near a low

STV- bad earnings

HTE- bad earnings

MA, V- MA sees longer-term growth falling below its internal targets

MDCO- its leading drug failed in a phase III trial

NAT- doing share offering at 32

F- doing share offering at 4.75

BBT- doing share offering at 20

MGM- looking to do private placement

LIZ- poor earnings

M- poor earnings guidance

BKUNA- announced a massive loss after the close yesterday; may not continue as a going-concern



Earnings:

WED MAY 13 BEFORE

ACXM AZ DPS

GRS LIZ M

TDW TKC

WED MAY 13 AFTER

ANW CA CLWR

JACK WFMI


Good luck today.

Erik R. Kolodny
 
Quote from TraderZones:

There is no libel when you and your consorts are acting suspicious and ignoring the Terms of Service.

Ignoring the part where you seem to feel the need to be a guru and enlighten other misfortunate tradres, and that many of your once-daily threads that litter the Trading forum get no responses...

You have not bothered yet to deny your involvement with several different aliases that were blatantly trolling for customers such as on your threads, and they directly linked you as part of their business. One spammer said that you were part of the company, and another said you were a paid speaker at their Red Bank, NJ event.

So if you or your aliases/companions feel rejected, you should. Pay Baron the sponsorship if you want to get customers
More...

TraderZones,

Your intentionally twisting the facts here via saying the following...

you and your aliases...

...You have not bothered yet to deny your involvement...

Three different people from the same company posted here in other thread your debating about.

One was Erik that did not post any links...the other were his business associates name Brendan and Rob (apparently Rob doesn't work for the company but is his buddy) did post links and/or promoted their upcoming seminar.

Erik then stated (publicly acknowledge) he didn't approve of what they did.

Apparently you too blind to read his other post in the other threads to see that.

Here's is an abstract from his quote in his reply to me in the thread that got deleted via his request...

Quote from erikrkolodny:

05-11-09 09:02am

I agree...this should not be done on Elite Trader...

MODERATORS - IF ANY OF YOU SEE THIS THREAD, PLEASE DELETE IT. IT SHOULD NOT BE HERE.
More...

Do you know how to read dates above.

Erik posted that public comment soon after he saw the spam here at EliteTrader.com (I think someone notify him) by his buddy robmastro and the other guy that had his alias name the same as his company name.

In addition...it was Erik that named his buddies even though his buddies had already named themselves and it was Erik that acknowlegde he works for the company.

Thus, nobody hid their identities as you implied. Heck, they even got videos at their website showing them talking together. :cool:

My point is your pretending he's hiding something when in fact he has publicly acknowledge what company he works for after being asked by other ET members along with publicly acknowledging what his buddies did was wrong after someone told the spammers they will notify Erik to see if he approves of their behavior.

Soon afterwards...Erik posted the above quote.

Simply, just because he doesn't reply to you doesn't mean that his public acknowledgment never occurred.

Thus, most likely he knows you yourself has spammed ET with links to your fee-base website and just think your being a jerk...

Something that you REFUSE to acknowledge nor respond to after the moderators told you to stop.

Well...at least you stop and have moved on to being ET unofficial spam enforcer while trying to force someone to say something that was already stated publicly prior to your bully like requests. :mad:

It's a shame ET doesn't enforce its TOU policy in banning you TraderZones for having multiple aliases (a.k.a. rcanfiel and Port1385 and most likely others associated with the Port1385).

Last of all, like many other well known vendors at ET that are some of the most active members while not mentionally their affiliations, not posting their links et cetera...

Respecting ET's TOU policy unlike you when you were known as rcanfiel...

I always wonder why you don't go after them. :confused:

Until I realized their the same ones that ran you out of town when you were trying to spam ET with your links and trying to sell your trading system here at EliteTrader.com in the classified section as TraderZones and then as Port1385 for $250,000 dollars.

At least you publicly stated you did do that as TraderZones but tried to pretend you have Baron's approval via some income sharing crap had you made a sell...

Income sharing that was a lie and ET responded by deleting your threads.

Your still crowned as ET's biggest HYPOCRITE until you openly and publicly acknowledge your other aliases and prior spam as rcanfiel...

All via the same IP address confirmed by a moderator even though we all know whom you really are via your other aliases.

P.S. Even if those guys do pay Baron a fee to post links et cetera...

You will still go after them as you have personally and professionally attacked other ET sponsors.

You are bad for ET's business and why Baron doesn't dump you is mind boggling.

Mark
 
a)I did not feel the need to be a guru. I compiled a plan and a list of possible trades that I planned on doing. I hope it helped people. I also wanted feedback if possible; if I didn't get it, so be it. I was trying to do something nice.

b) It is libel when you make false claims about me in writing. I was not acting suspicious nor did I ignore the terms of service.

c) As far as 'aliases,' that was addressed below by others as I responded already to that.

d) I am not a paid speaker this weekend at our conference in Red Bank. I will be speaking and representing my company, but will not be paid for it. Game of telephone- stunning at how false rumors are created out of nothing.

e) I don't feel rejected. I feel disenchanted. There are so many more important things in life than an anonymous chatroom (well, anonymous for you since we know who I am but we don't know who you are); I hope you someday learn that.

f)If I wanted customers from here, don't you think I have mentioned my firm at least one time in any post I've ever made here (including in line d above)?

Really. Enough. I tried to do a good thing. That is it.

Quote from TraderZones:

There is no libel when you and your consorts are acting suspicious and ignoring the Terms of Service.

Ignoring the part where you seem to feel the need to be a guru and enlighten other misfortunate tradres, and that many of your once-daily threads that litter the Trading forum get no responses...

You have not bothered yet to deny your involvement with several different aliases that were blatantly trolling for customers such as on your threads, and they directly linked you as part of their business. One spammer said that you were part of the company, and another said you were a paid speaker at their Red Bank, NJ event.

So if you or your aliases/companions feel rejected, you should. Pay Baron the sponsorship if you want to get customers
More...
 
Erik, dont waste your breath. This board is full of these jerks and you cant talk sense to jerks that simply enjoy being jerks. You got my PM and there is a growing audiance over there that will enjoy hearing what you have to say. But dont expect us to agree with you in all cases. But we are much more civilized about it. So it ends up being a sharing of ideas. I wouldnt over here, but over there I would like you to explain more about marking the close. I jumped all over wfc at the close but I was really confused why it was happening. Seemed like a last minute free for all to grab a ton of money, but it didnt make any sense to me. I never would have thought a stock offering would cause a short cover rally. :)
 
I appreciate it, but really need to think about it over time. I mean, I am a grown man...I do not want you to remove 'people' like TraderZones because criticism is healthy, needed, and deserved (at times). I am nowhere close to perfect as a trader or a human being.

What is not healthy is the mean-spiritedness and the absolute lies being propogated here. That is what bothers me. It's one thing to ask me to post in another place on ths messageboard; it is quite another to have total strangers saying some of the horrible things that they are saying. I had two purposes here: 1) to help and 2)to have reasonable dialogues about day trading for each day on each thread.

I've never put an e-mail address here and the only links I've posted have been when I've either referenced an article in one of my posts (because if I mention another publication, that author deserves credit) and the occasion when I reference one of my own past posts.

So, let me think about it, but again, I do sincerely appreciate the support and vote of confidence.

Quote from Ivanovich:

Erik,

I'll moderate your forums as best I can from this point on. That includes removing those who needlessly bash your posts (like in this case, TraderZones). However, I must request that any links/emails you post be removed or not put on in the first place.

You're pretty good about that, so I don't see an issue.

Thanks for your contributions.
More...
 
You have to understand that Eric aint the only one. You got thousands of lurkers here that see these cat fights and dont want any part of the abuse. So there goes wasted contribution and idea sharing. The baddies pretty much scare everybody else away. In this stage of the game, thats a very deep problem to fix and its going to take a team of agressive but kickers to fix the bad attitudes.

And now there is a new board down the road with all kinds of learning reasorces with a take no crap moderator that makes sure nobody talks any kind of crap. I even got warned when I was talking about my last drunken escapade in the lounge. They want all talk family oriented. The way I see it, better over moderated than under moderated. And thats who you are looseing membership too. Pretty soon, the zoo will be here, and the traders will all be over there. Because I want to be in the atmosphere that helps me make more money. And that is the bottom line.
 
Well, Ive said all that needs to be said. I got to go and try to find at least one short scalp before the close...
 
Quote from Ivanovich:

Erik,

I'll moderate your forums as best I can from this point on. That includes removing those who needlessly bash your posts (like in this case, TraderZones). However, I must request that any links/emails you post be removed or not put on in the first place.

You're pretty good about that, so I don't see an issue.

Thanks for your contributions.
More...

links to articles should be posted. that is how people learn about new and useful sites.

since u did not post today your usual thread i hope u are not getting discouraged
 
Quote from TraderZones:

Ivan, I reported "Epiphany" who put in links and emails on Eriks's thread and made commercial soliciations and named Erik as part of the business. The links were then removed. I do not know which moderator, but the after effects of that mods comments are likely still there

Another alias then put in a NJ "Hookup" which was a commercial solicitation and named Erik as a paid speaker. I reported this also.

Erik in both cases acted like he had no idea of what those were about. And later, he admitted he was a speaker, but that it was for his own company.

I have great doubts these 2 aliases were not directly or indirectly linked to Erik.

So again, Erik is clearly connected to commercial activities, regardless of his claims.
More...

You are still lost and intentionally so.

Erik has acknowledge that others spammed at ET and then he specifically named them after he was notified about such.

In addition, he publicly stated he did not approve of what they did along with stating publicly that he is affiliated with the company.

He also requested that any threads as such to be removed (deleted).

Further, the spammers also stated Erik works at Epiphany Trading LLC and will be a speaker at an upcoming conference.

All of them using their real names...nobody hiding nor denying whom they are.

All of this occurred before your first complaint about the spam and before their HookUp thread spam.

However, since you've showed up on the scene...a day late...

Your pretending that Erik posted those links and your pretending that he was the one that spammed.

In addition, your pretending that he refuses to acknowledge his buddies did along with you pretending that he was the other aliases (false accusation that Erik was the aliases robmastro and Epiphantrading...see your quote further below...one example of many).

News Alert: It hairdresser, nazzdack, fractal, powerfade and me that publicly complained about the spammers named robmastro and Epiphanytrading.

(Steve Nison thread)

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=163533

Powerfade said the following as shown in the above thread...

Quote from powerfade:

...I'm going to shoot Erik a PM just to point this post out, and don't try to edit it because I've already copied it. Seriously, man. Take the rest of the day off. You're not at the top of your game.
More...

Soon afterwards...after the spam by the aliases robmastro and Epiphanytrading...

Erik shows up and saids early morning May 11th Monday @ 9:01am est that he doesn't approve of what the others did along with requesting the moderators to remove (delete) the threads.

(copy below of one deleted thread)

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2427402

If you know how to read...check out the dates of those complaints by me and others...

It's May 10th Sunday along with me giving a warning to the alias name Epiphanytrading to stop before you find out. :D :D :D

Now check out the date of your first complaint about the aliases robmastro and Epiphantrading...

May 11th Monday @ 9:02am est.

Simply, our complaints (not you), his acknowledgment of whom he is, whom he works with, what company he works for and his disapproval of the spam posted by his buddies, his request to have their spam removed (deleted)...

All occurred before your first complaint about the spam.

*** Your reading comprehension stinks and your intentional stupidity just amazes me especially since english is not my first language.

Get over it...Erik didn't spam.

His buddies did spam and they all work at the same company.

Your trolling tactics of requesting ET management to lock Erik's ID and then stating he's also Brendan (alias Epiphantrading) and Rob (alias robmastro) was a facade when ET management had already been notified about the spammers name Brendan and Rob...

Quote from TraderZones:

05-11-09 08:23 PM

Please have more of an effect against Erik? Like locking his user ID? Now he is posting email addresses (and directing to his website) through aliases. Do you read your TOS that says this is not allowed?...
More...

We report the spammers and you now try to tell Ivan that it was you that first reported the spammers.

In reality, all you did was follow-up on what we started along with you pretending it was Erik doing all the spamming.

Reminder...all those you've complained about have used their real names, stated specifically how they are affiliated with each other...

Long before your first complaint.

You're still a hypocrite, troll, liar, multiple alias, expert bender of the facts, former spammer and possibly someone with psychological problems.

TraderZones (a.k.a. rcanfiel and Port1385 and possibly other aliases associated with Port1385)...what's your real name. :confused:

(yeah...you won't answer that like a true troll)

P.S. It's obvious what's behind your agenda. You're still pssst about how ET management responded to you about Erik in the following thread...long before his buddies showed up to spam. :eek:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=162376

M.A. Perry
 

Attachments

I have enjoyed Erik morning news briefings. He will sometimes have news that I have missed.

Can anyone honestly say that these morning posts are worth bashing while posts about how goldman is taking over the world, or another thread about the PPT flourish?
 
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