erikrkolodny
ET Sponsor
A number of people did not understand why I had a bullish tone on both the blog entry (i.e. predicting an upside bias) much less why I kept noting that except for selected financials, I was not going to get short yesterday. Letâs look a little closer for educational purposes. First, one of the things that I always track is the performance of futures in overnight trading along with the action in foreign stocks. When I went to bed around 12:30AM on Monday night (well, technically, Tuesday morning), the S&Pâs were up 7 and the Dow futures were up 70. When I awoke just after 5AM, futures were down a bit yet European markets were marginally higher. By paying attention, I had a framework as to how stocks performed when nobody was around. Next, volume has been dwindling nearly every day that the market has been 'down.' In fact, the NASDAQ was up nicely on Monday with the broader S&P 500 flat. Furthermore, on an intra-day basis, the broader market did not sell off yesterday when the financials were crushed earlier. I mean, we were looking at stocks like STI below 10 and WFC around 17. Thus, speaking for me, if I was short with big money (like nine figures), I'd have begun taking off some shorts if I had some positions. And that principle drove up the markets in a vacuum. Why the market did not go down with the financials crumbling is something I do not understand yet it was not fallingâ¦I donât questionâ¦I go with it. There was nobody around to sell and everybody is afraid of missing the train whenever the market does rally so the smallest buying pressure provided the market lift yesterday. As volumes continue to remain sharply below last yearâs levels, there will be increasing amount of 2% moves in both directions on the market so just know to look for the clues- and donât fight the trend.
Markets in Asia were up about 2% to 3% across the board; gains extended to Europe as well with prices up just over 1% on average. Oil and currencies are quiet with bonds down slightly. In the U.S., futures are indicating a slightly lower open. Look for quiet trade overall today with trading on both sides of unchanged. There is a general âwait and seeâ malaise overall and there seems to be nothing to break that trend today.
Reiterating-
Please understand that if the ideas do not get to the hoped for set-ups cited below, more often than not, one should not blindly trade the symbol next to said idea.
If the whole story is not there -
If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 based on direction of the market unless specifiedIf something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-
Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern
ERTS- wretched earnings, but stock traded higher after-hours yesterday
ILMN- good earnings
LLY- got approval from an FDA panel for Prasugrel
MET- beat earnings slightly
SOLR- good earnings
ADS- good earnings
NETL- great earnings
ITMN- closed near a high
MYGN- closed near a high
ALTH- announced positive phase II results on its Propel drug
FCX, CL- mentioned positively on âMad Moneyâ
COL- closed near a high
BHS- closed at a high
FNF- beat earnings estimates slightly
TNB- good guidance
WWW- beat earnings estimates
NOV- good earnings
Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern
DIS- missed earnings estimates
YUM â missed earnings
UNM- warned for next quarter
LEG- warned on its earnings
ANH- bad earnings
CPX- closed near a low
ACE- beat earnings slightly, but worries are abundant about its longer-term outlook
TXT- mentioned negatively on âMad Moneyâ
VLY- closed near a low
CUZ- closed near a low
WL- closed near a trend low
COF- closed near a trend low
SHE- closed near a low
GR- cut outlook
KFT- cut outlook
SNA- poor earnings
TUP- cut outlook
COST- cut outlook
R- horrible earnings warning
Earnings:
WED FEB 4 BEFORE
AGN BCO BHP
CLX DBD DVN
FNF FOR GR
ITT KFT LAZ
NI NOV PM
PPL R RL
SLAB SLE SNA
SUN TMO TNB
TUP TWC TWX
WIN WWW
WED FEB 4 AFTER
ADS AHL AIZ
AKAM ATW AVB
BMC CBL CNQR
CSCO DLB EFX
ESS FMC HAIN
HAR HMN HRS
MET NVLS PHM
PRU REG THQI
TMK V XRAY
Good luck today.
Erik R. Kolodny
Markets in Asia were up about 2% to 3% across the board; gains extended to Europe as well with prices up just over 1% on average. Oil and currencies are quiet with bonds down slightly. In the U.S., futures are indicating a slightly lower open. Look for quiet trade overall today with trading on both sides of unchanged. There is a general âwait and seeâ malaise overall and there seems to be nothing to break that trend today.
Reiterating-
Please understand that if the ideas do not get to the hoped for set-ups cited below, more often than not, one should not blindly trade the symbol next to said idea.
If the whole story is not there -
If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 based on direction of the market unless specifiedIf something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-
Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern
ERTS- wretched earnings, but stock traded higher after-hours yesterday
ILMN- good earnings
LLY- got approval from an FDA panel for Prasugrel
MET- beat earnings slightly
SOLR- good earnings
ADS- good earnings
NETL- great earnings
ITMN- closed near a high
MYGN- closed near a high
ALTH- announced positive phase II results on its Propel drug
FCX, CL- mentioned positively on âMad Moneyâ
COL- closed near a high
BHS- closed at a high
FNF- beat earnings estimates slightly
TNB- good guidance
WWW- beat earnings estimates
NOV- good earnings
Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern
DIS- missed earnings estimates
YUM â missed earnings
UNM- warned for next quarter
LEG- warned on its earnings
ANH- bad earnings
CPX- closed near a low
ACE- beat earnings slightly, but worries are abundant about its longer-term outlook
TXT- mentioned negatively on âMad Moneyâ
VLY- closed near a low
CUZ- closed near a low
WL- closed near a trend low
COF- closed near a trend low
SHE- closed near a low
GR- cut outlook
KFT- cut outlook
SNA- poor earnings
TUP- cut outlook
COST- cut outlook
R- horrible earnings warning
Earnings:
WED FEB 4 BEFORE
AGN BCO BHP
CLX DBD DVN
FNF FOR GR
ITT KFT LAZ
NI NOV PM
PPL R RL
SLAB SLE SNA
SUN TMO TNB
TUP TWC TWX
WIN WWW
WED FEB 4 AFTER
ADS AHL AIZ
AKAM ATW AVB
BMC CBL CNQR
CSCO DLB EFX
ESS FMC HAIN
HAR HMN HRS
MET NVLS PHM
PRU REG THQI
TMK V XRAY
Good luck today.
Erik R. Kolodny
