Quote from sam0182:
Yes, volatility is hit and miss with Tokyo and certainly nothing compared to UK/US. When volatility is present, combined with big moves on UJ & EU during the UK & US sessions, I'm able to fade the earlier moves using TL +S&R, etc. When volatility sucks, trading is usually a scratch or a hold until pre-Frankfurt/London.
I don't have enough experience watching & trading London to comment. I often find the first hour confusing. What do they call it, London fake out? With more time (and less sleep), I'll become more accustom to the patterns with UK.
If I could choose a trading session w/o the worries of regular employment, I would most certainly trade 11PM through 9AM as I constantly hear the UK to US session is the best. Comments ranging from quality volatility to consistent predictability come to mind. I've yet to really see such consistent predictability within my limited live analysis and/or post analysis but again, as I pay more attention, I'm sure some patterns will show.
Great work this week. Your weekly gains are about half of what I shoot for in a year.
Thanks for the kind words Sam! Trading is a fairly isolating vocation... you basically "think independently" and "decide" for a living... which are two activites that really require isolation to a certain degree. Thats one of the reasons for this forum journal.
I personally avoid the aussie session like the plauge, and probably trade asia session about 6 times a year.
12% a year? geez Sam... I know that is a little better than the S&P averages per year, however, I think most trend following strategies do much better, to the tune of approx. 50% on average per year.
Now mind you, if your pulling 12% with 2 billion dollars...that ain't bad! BUT, if u have 2 billion, you probably know a better way to make money that 12% a year
Tell me a little more about your trading. How do you assess your trades, fundamental, techinal, both? what is your basic strategy?12% is a little better than the S&P itself performs, If your trading forex, the risk adjusted return on forex PROBABLY isn't worth it unless your pulling down over 30% per year, but to be honest, I think that whole "risk adjusted" concept is phooey.
Not to get off subject, BUT, If I risk 1 percent of my account on any given trade... you tell me, does it matter if i'm buying IBM or Euros or Oil or Cotton?
Although the leverage of the futures and forex markets scare many people away... it is like being scared of the boogie man in your closet, the fear is unjustified.
A stop loss based on a percentage of your account is all that is needed. It's the great neutralizer. Now, NOTHING is any riskier than anything else. it's all just 1% of your account (or 2%, or whatever)
And since this is my journal, I challenge ANYONE who believes otherwise to a conversation via skype. You argue why any particular capital market is more risky than another, and I will show you how that is simple false....
A trader may CHOOSE to trade certain markets in a riskier fashion than others, but no market is objectively any riskier than any other... Save for certain emerging markets, but that is a function of governmental and cultural influence, NOT due to the market itself.
Now, off my soapbox, and back onto your trading. Tell me a little bit about what and how you trade. I will see what I can do to help you improve your OWN gains with whatever method your using...or, if your method tops out at a 12% per year potential, I may be able to point you to possible alternatives.
Of course...that is if you WANT to make potentially huge returns.
To quote one of my favorite traders, Ed Seykota:
"Win or lose, everyone gets what they want out of the market"
I decided long ago in my mid twenties (ok, not that long ago) that I wanted to make extraordinary returns. 100% year would not do, because I wanted it to be a business I could build up with relatively little personal investment. I really needed 200% per year minimum. I wanted profit every month...hell, really, every week! I gotta eat ya know!
So, I devoted part of my time over the next several years to finding methods that could provide massive returns. AND, I didn't listen to any of the talking heads who say it can't be done. Read about a few that did, and met a few personally as well... so I knew it was possible
Win or lose, we get exactly what we want. If 12% is all you want, that's all you'll ever get.
Excuses my long windedness... but the point is you CAN make MUCH more than 12% per year, and it will probably in reality be LESS risky than your current method is now, less prone to draw down, less prone to negative market situations, bear markets, bull markets, news...etc.
BUT, you have to REALLY want it... and that starts with believing it exists. Period.
Send me a PM with a sample of what criteria you look for to take a trade, as well as exit criteria. Also, feel free to ask any questions. I won't be discussing nuances of my method here, as I said before. BUT, I will answer you in a PM with what I can.
Hope to talk soon!
Greg
