Day Trading Systems
- Thread starter Tahoe
- Start date
"Look at it another way. Tony Oz is a very good trader. How many people following Tony's techniques are not profitable? They would be if they could exactly follow the mechanical encapsulation of Tony's method.
If the system cannot be fully modeled it is not the fault of systems trading, it is the inability of the discretionary trader to explicitly describe his thought process. ~dottom
dottom, PRECISELY! This "intuition" or "discretionary trading" is nothing more than a loose&fast set of vague "rules" that have attached themselves to the trader over the course of his trading experience. Much like the prejudices and biases that we accumulate throughout our lives from childhood. They are not necessarily efficacious or "good", but insideously inculcate our gyri with certain market "values" and "axioms" that we accept as true without conscious awareness or examination.
We are vaguely aware of their lurking prescence but we can't seem to grasp their essential nature or meaning. They give us the impression that we think we know what we are doing, but evade any cursory attempt at comprehension. We just can't put our finger on it or explain them, but we "know" that these are fleeting "feelings" bring us sound reliable true market knowledge.
HA!
Yeah right!
And I can also "see" those angels dancing away on the end of a pin.
FIREHAWK
If the system cannot be fully modeled it is not the fault of systems trading, it is the inability of the discretionary trader to explicitly describe his thought process. ~dottom
dottom, PRECISELY! This "intuition" or "discretionary trading" is nothing more than a loose&fast set of vague "rules" that have attached themselves to the trader over the course of his trading experience. Much like the prejudices and biases that we accumulate throughout our lives from childhood. They are not necessarily efficacious or "good", but insideously inculcate our gyri with certain market "values" and "axioms" that we accept as true without conscious awareness or examination.
We are vaguely aware of their lurking prescence but we can't seem to grasp their essential nature or meaning. They give us the impression that we think we know what we are doing, but evade any cursory attempt at comprehension. We just can't put our finger on it or explain them, but we "know" that these are fleeting "feelings" bring us sound reliable true market knowledge.
HA!
Yeah right!
And I can also "see" those angels dancing away on the end of a pin.
FIREHAWK
I have sent an inquiry to auditrack on how to get real-time or EOD reporting so everyone can view the results. I don't know what type of statistics they provide (probably will have everything we need including Sharpe ratio), and I am also confirming how they handle intraday margin vs overnight positions. If they can do what we need and we can normalize the equity representation between your account and my auditrack account then we'll have a contest.
You may want to reconsider letting someone else log into your account just to do review & reporting. I respect the privacy of your P/L statement. If someone reading this has a better way to capture Sebena's trading results to compare with my auditrack account please let us know.
Magna
Administrator
Firehawk,
Man, you must have loved poppa George Bush's "Thousand Points of Light". Yuk,yuk. I might have missed it, but have you developed a successful system, are you working on one, are you currently trading daily? Obviously you are inclined towards codifying your methodology, assuming that it's a profitable methodology. Have you developed the latter, and if so, how's the modeling going?
Man, you must have loved poppa George Bush's "Thousand Points of Light". Yuk,yuk. I might have missed it, but have you developed a successful system, are you working on one, are you currently trading daily? Obviously you are inclined towards codifying your methodology, assuming that it's a profitable methodology. Have you developed the latter, and if so, how's the modeling going?
You know the interesting thing about "intuition" is that it by definition requires the trader to bring something extra to the trade that is more than the sum of trading data. I think it also must follow that this "intuition", if it really has a separate and distinct existence as many here postulate, must be prescient. That is, it must possess a certain adaptiveness, plasticity, or protean quality that would permit it to transcend any particular market condition, to serve as a template of true knowledge to be applied to ALL markets which may potentially arise!
I believe this line of reasoning must follow if one accepts the premise of the "Intuition".
AND...
IF this does follow, THEN this wonderful "intuition" would not fail us during periods when the market "rules" change, but...
as we all know it does!!
And for good reason.......
FIREHAWK
I believe this line of reasoning must follow if one accepts the premise of the "Intuition".
AND...
IF this does follow, THEN this wonderful "intuition" would not fail us during periods when the market "rules" change, but...
as we all know it does!!
And for good reason.......
FIREHAWK
sabena:
Allright, how much you want to bet now ?
How about average daily profit of the loser's system? Net profit over 6 months / # of trading days.
This way if in 6 months you show a loss you won't owe anything, just the scrutiny of this board. If we are both profitable and you're up 100% and I am up a mere 50% then i wouldn't mind paying 0.4% now would I? ($100k starting equity at 50% profit = $50k. 125 trading days in 6 months = $400. assuming of course the loser was 50% profitable).
We still need to determine how to equally compare trading equity and any rules with regards to leverage/risk. If you're down by $10k on the last day I don't want you betting your entire equity on one trade.
We also need to determine rules for how to account with deposits/withdrawals from your account. That is why a third-party service like auditrack is preferred. It will be very difficult to accurately compare otherwise. I also don't know if everyone one here wants to see daily P/L postings for 6 months. Auditrack can be verified in real-time.
Allright, how much you want to bet now ?
How about average daily profit of the loser's system? Net profit over 6 months / # of trading days.
This way if in 6 months you show a loss you won't owe anything, just the scrutiny of this board. If we are both profitable and you're up 100% and I am up a mere 50% then i wouldn't mind paying 0.4% now would I? ($100k starting equity at 50% profit = $50k. 125 trading days in 6 months = $400. assuming of course the loser was 50% profitable).
We still need to determine how to equally compare trading equity and any rules with regards to leverage/risk. If you're down by $10k on the last day I don't want you betting your entire equity on one trade.
We also need to determine rules for how to account with deposits/withdrawals from your account. That is why a third-party service like auditrack is preferred. It will be very difficult to accurately compare otherwise. I also don't know if everyone one here wants to see daily P/L postings for 6 months. Auditrack can be verified in real-time.