Day trading realistic expectations

[maximumpossiblesuffering]

Absolutely, I was gambling which is why I lost the 12k, but I did so knowingly because I was overeager to grow account even at great risk. I thought I was the shit because I had several wins in a row with almost 0 errors. I realize this was incredibly stupid now. My performance is actually really good, considering I hear most traders claim 50% win rate is good. My problem is just when the going gets good I get arrogant and end up deviating from my strategy. Market kicked my ass and flattened my ego, and I totally deserved it.

Self honesty is an important ingredient. I think by definition, in short term directional trading, the fundamental goal is to postion yourself where you are risking a little amount of money for a potentially large payoff. For example, if you are bullish and the price penetrates support by a predetermined amount, this is a very good indication that your timing and analysis are off, perhaps epically.

2% stop loss seems aggressive starting out. .5% or less until consistently profitable, perhaps at least three months, before risking what aggressive, long term profitable professionals risk on a short term trade.

To paraphrase what the referree says before a fight, protect your capital at all times.

 

[tiddlywinks]

I am new and have been trading for about 3 months seriously

I've done rather poorly lately (lost $12,000)

I trade with around $30,000

I have a win rate on my trades of ~60% on about 98 trades. With an average profit of ~$200 a day or 0.66%

I was gambling which is why I lost the 12k, but I did so knowingly because I was overeager to grow account even at great risk. I thought I was the shit because I had several wins in a row with almost 0 errors. I realize this was incredibly stupid now. My performance is actually really good, considering I hear most traders claim 50% win rate is good.

Win rate means next to nothing, as you now know. You've been trading 3 months, lets call it 60 trading days just for ease. Let's also say 60 profitable trades vs 40 losing trades, just for ease.

60 trading days x $200 a day equals 12,000. There's your 60 profitable trades.
But wait... you've lost 12,000, over the same period of time via 40 trades!

So much for win rate... you are AT BEST, a breakeven trader (that assumes your gain and loss numbers are NET).

You can come up with all the reasons and excuses you want. A win rate means next to nothing until you properly manage your risk. Your numbers prove it.

Your goal should be to minimize loss.

Setting a goal of $500/day or $200/day does not help you get there

 

[Andy1_1]

Win rate means next to nothing, as you now know. You've been trading 3 months, lets call it 60 trading days just for ease. Let's also say 60 profitable trades vs 40 losing trades, just for ease.

60 trading days x $200 a day equals 12,000. There's your 60 profitable trades.
But wait... you've lost 12,000, over the same period of time via 40 trades!

So much for win rate... you are AT BEST, a breakeven trader (that assumes your gain and loss numbers are NET).

You can come up with all the reasons and excuses you want. A win rate means next to nothing until you properly manage your risk. Your numbers prove it.

Your goal should be to minimize loss.

It's out of 98 total trades, so something like 61% wr, but some are included from when I wasn't trading full time. All are utilizing a similar simple RSI, EMA cross strategy buying when volume picks up after the cross about a total of 2 ticks from the initial cross. I absolutely agree the solution here is to cut losses early, which I have not been doing.

 

[wrbtrader]

Looking for some experienced traders to give me a realistic expected profit mark for growing my account based on their own experiences. Is it possible to make upowards of 2-5% a day? I am new and have been trading for about 3 months seriously, 2 years prior on and off playing around non seriously. I've done rather poorly lately (lost $12,000) although I have identified the reason this happened is not because my system sucks, it's because I did not cut my losses and got into holding and hoping habit, or would put on impatient trades.

I'd like to make myself trading goals to reach, but I am wondering about the potential growth possibilities here. Is 2% a day (on capital traded not overall account) realistic? 5%? I trade with around $30,000, often going full barrel, but with tight stop now of 2% no matter what. Any hints as to setting realistic growth goals here?

Expectations is not what some anonymous stranger on the internet will say to you.

Instead, backtest your trade strategy and then simulate trade it...the results is your expectations. Seriously, this is your money...let your backtest results and then simulator results tell you more than any anonymous user name can say to you.

wrbtrader

 

[bookish]

Looking for some experienced traders to give me a realistic expected profit mark for growing my account based on their own experiences. Is it possible to make upowards of 2-5% a day? I am new and have been trading for about 3 months seriously, 2 years prior on and off playing around non seriously. I've done rather poorly lately (lost $12,000) although I have identified the reason this happened is not because my system sucks, it's because I did not cut my losses and got into holding and hoping habit, or would put on impatient trades.

I'd like to make myself trading goals to reach, but I am wondering about the potential growth possibilities here. Is 2% a day (on capital traded not overall account) realistic? 5%? I trade with around $30,000, often going full barrel, but with tight stop now of 2% no matter what. Any hints as to setting realistic growth goals here?

Best bet is give it to Robert and have him do it for you.

 

[Sweet Bobby]

A written trading plan you should develop!

 

[Overnight]

Absolutely, I was gambling which is why I lost the 12k, but I did so knowingly because I was overeager to grow account even at great risk. I thought I was the shit because I had several wins in a row with almost 0 errors. I realize this was incredibly stupid now. My performance is actually really good, considering I hear most traders claim 50% win rate is good. My problem is just when the going gets good I get arrogant and end up deviating from my strategy. Market kicked my ass and flattened my ego, and I totally deserved it.

Your win rate is irrelevant. The net profit at the end of the day is what matters.

If you were to ask me the question, "Who would you rather be, a person who makes 100 trades per day and makes 90% winners with net of $1000, or a person who makes 10,000 trades per day and makes 20% winners with a net of $5,000"? I'll pick the $5K person every single time. Why? Because this is not a game of ego, and not about "who is the most efficient" at trading. Who is the "best"? Who cares? This is about making MONEY. This is survival. I could give a flying shit about your win rates, and your MAE readings, because the banks you owe money to do not care about it either. NOBODY does. MAE, MFE...What does it all matter if you cannot pay the bloody bills?

So stop about win rates and r:r...Just make the money! Stop looking for glory, because it is not there, and nobody would care in the first place, if you found it, yeah?

 

[bookish]

A written trading plan you should develop!

Or balance you will loose!

 

[fordewind]

With volatility as such - 5% on 30K is a no go.2%?Hardly for the 2 months trader.

Focus on the process not how much per day.Then you may have a chance.

 

[Dustin]

Your mistake is trying to calculate how much you can make, instead of how little you can lose. You are still in the daydreamer phase of how easy trading seems. Once you break even for a few months come back and ask again.