Day trading is losers game

yea there so much psychology behind the market. Ive read alot on ta sometimes i think some of it is such garbage other times i think some of the stuff works but is taken so out of context... The answer is so clear sometimes and yet still we make bad decisions.. ive read alot of books on ta.. elliot wave,fib, to all sorts of ocsalators.. ichimku etc.. haha and ive messed with alot of their parameters and curve fitted the indicators to match the underlying.. but in essense my love has always been options.. i realyy wanna start trading more currency options... xde etc..
 
I'm too lazy (Russian, you know :D ) to analyze options lately... Agree on psychology, would recommend Mark Douglas on the matter, good stuff worth reading too.
 
amos trversky and taleb... i love rare event trading... bleed slow exponientially make up for it on tail events.. i have a ratio backspread on the euro puts in case some real crazy stufff hits the fan... i have always thought there was alot of really agreesive double down trading in currency because of the swings.. martingaling blow ups..
 
Quote from cdcaveman:

amos trversky and taleb... i love rare event trading... bleed slow exponientially make up for it on tail events.. i have a ratio backspread on the euro puts in case some real crazy stufff hits the fan... i have always thought there was alot of really agreesive double down trading in currency because of the swings.. martingaling blow ups..
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As you mentioned Taleb does it mean you mostly are net long?
 
Quote from cornixforex:

As you mentioned Taleb does it mean you mostly are net long?
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Im long volatilty as you would put it.. If euro goes up im fine.. im long interest rates asxwell or you could say im short bonds... Euro trade is on the jan 14 options series... why would you assume that i would be net long when i said taleb
 
Quote from cdcaveman:

Im long volatilty as you would put it.. If euro goes up im fine.. im long interest rates asxwell or you could say im short bonds... Euro trade is on the jan 14 options series... why would you assume that i would be net long when i said taleb
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Yes, long volatility, that's what I thought when you mentioned Taleb (aka Black Swan I assume :) ).

Not sure @ long interest rates of ECB, though, considering the current fundamental context. But that's your game, you must know better. :)
 
Ecb? haha no i think europe know their problems better then we do... Im taking a while bet but small bet on inflation to hyper inflation in the usa.. interest rates dont stay below 2 forever. they are an option spread on the tbt
 
Quote from cdcaveman:

Ecb? haha no i think europe know their problems better then we do... Im taking a while bet but small bet on inflation to hyper inflation in the usa.. interest rates dont stay below 2 forever. they are an option spread on the tbt
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I see... Well, almost deflation currently even with zero rates, so... :)

Of course all those QE's will eventually lead to hyper-inflation as econ starts to recover, but that's quite a long-term bet I would say.
 
yea it sure is. . But the guys that bet againts those subprime mortgage bonds probably thought that was along term investment to... i wanna figure out how to limited risk lever up big time on a jump in interest rates with alot of room for error on timing.. best i can come up with are deep otm calls or ratio backspreads.... ratios have margin requiremetns that you could just as well buy a less amount of dotm options to make up for.. tie less money up but expirence theta burn.. Options dont have black swans priced in :-)
 
cornixforex wrote

Registered: Jan 2011
Posts: 1267



1. First version of your questions

thousands of trades 66% hit .... with payement 1:1 ?
--------------------------------------------------------------

2. Second version of your questions

...I am asking you. If someone showed you a credible track record of many trades with average win rate over 60% (after all fees and spread) with at least 1:1 risk/reward, would you admit retail trading is possible?

Difference " thousands of trades 66% hit "
----------------------------------------------------
against "many trades with average win rate over 60%"
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Many and thousands -that is very different matter

Real money Record belov with multiple's small operations

China - 2116.39% Survey / Trade Report (.xls version)

May 2011
http://media.dailyfx.com/sales/micro/kom_docs/MAY2011/1stpdf.pdf
http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/king-micro-trading-contest/485819-contest-winner-archive.html

But ...

1. That is many small profitable trades, but
not "thousands of trades 66% hit "

2. Exist more as 1 record's in this contest, which are

a. have more high % -12700%, 3108 % ,2464 % &
b. 80 % profit of which is related to one operation
--------------------------------------------------------




......

For multi mln profit of Casino in best EU Casino in Monte-Carlo

in roullete by payement 1:1 enough 51.36% "profitable trade's "
 
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